Chicago Cubs: Trade grades for a surprisingly quiet deadline

In a stunning turn, the Cubs did not have the massive fire sale that most envisioned, but still made several deals close to the deadline.

In the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, it seemed as though it was a foregone conclusion that the Chicago Cubs would again control much of the deadline traffic once the Juan Soto situation was resolved. Willson Contreras and Ian Happ were almost as good as gone, being seen as two of the top bats available, and even felt they themselves would be dealt in the week leading up to the deadline.

But the deadline came and went without either player being moved and, overall, we saw a far less turbulent trade deadline than what we saw last season. There were still five moves made in the days before the deadline, but all of the talk in the days that followed centered around those Chicago didn’t make. There’s much uncertainty and many ways to speculate on the Cubs’ decision to keep the duo, but how did the team do on the trades they actually did make?

Cubs opened up their moves by flipping Chris Martin to Los Angeles

Much like the previous deadline, the Cubs built up a rock-solid back-end bullpen trio that were obvious trade candidates. Chris Martin, signed by the Cubs in the offseason for just $2.5 million, was another example of the team’s very effective approach to building a bullpen. The 36-year-old sported a 4.31 ERA, but that is far from telling the whole story.

Martin holds a walk rate of a minuscule 2.8 percent, while also striking out more than 28 percent of the batters he faces. Martin also got batters to hit into groundballs just over 50 percent of the time, allowing line drives under 20 percent of the time. These are the metrics of a good high-leverage reliever, but the unlucky ERA comes from a staggeringly high .359 BABIP. These were numbers a team like the Dodgers obviously took note of, and believe they can capitalize on his positive regression.

In return, the Cubs got 27-year-old Zach McKinstry, who can play multiple positions well and has hit well at every step of the way in the minor leagues. The problem for McKinstry is that in his very limited time in the majors, it’s been anything but pretty at the plate. Mckinstry simply had no spot to breakthrough in Los Angeles, and he has a career OPS below .630 in the majors.

McKinstry has never had a steady stream of playing time in the majors which would affect any player’s performance, and now he’ll get that opportunity with the Cubs. McKinstry slashed .335/.417/.487 in Triple-A this season, and if he can find a similar groove with consistent playing time, this could be a fantastic return for Martin.

Many may question if the return on Martin, with all of his elite underlying metrics, is actually worth it, but it’s important to keep in context that Martin is a 36-year-old, rental, right-handed reliever. Teams are lucky if they fetch a Bailey Horn-type return that the Cubs got for Tepera last year. McKinstry is a major-league-ready, controllable utility player that’s flashed plus plate discipline and decent power in the past.

Grade: A-

Cubs sent Triple-A shortstop Dixon Machado to the Giants

In what was probably the least consequential trade the Cubs made, the team shipped Iowa Cubs shortstop Dixon Machado to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for minor league pitcher Raynel Espinal. The move was made in the middle of the two teams battling in a four-game series after Mark Leiter Jr. hit Giants shortstop Thairo Estrada with a pitch that concussed him, resulting in the emergency move.

Machado was in the middle of his first season back in the United States since 2019 (Also with the Iowa Cubs) and had a solid, not spectacular .796 OPS, with a .402 OBP being the most enticing stat. He played in five games with San Francisco before he was designated for assignment.

Espinal appeared in 19 games, 18 of them being starts in Triple-A with San Francisco, and pitched to an ERA of 5.29. At the age of 30, he’s unlikely to be seen as a real asset for the team going forward, but he does have a very solid 27.6 percent strikeout rate which may give the Cubs something to work with.

With the number of arms the Cubs shipped off at the deadline, it’s feasible to see them move Espinal to the bullpen and give him a look down the stretch to see if there’s anything to the high strikeout numbers. Overall, a very worthwhile return for a player that likely was not making it to Chicago this season.

Grade: B

Cubs flip David Robertson for a young arm rapidly on the rise

Another one of the veteran relievers the Cubs signed in the offseason, David Robertson proved to be the biggest return on investment, seizing the closer role and being mostly effective this year. Robertson finished his time in Chicago with a 2.23 ERA, an 11.9 K/9 and 14 saves in 19 opportunities.

This led to Robertson being one of the most sought-after relievers on the market, and the return showed as much, with the Phillies sending right-handed starter Ben Brown back in the deal. Brown, who was the seventh-ranked prospect in the Phillies’ system, had apparently been on the Cubs’ radar for months, and it’s easy to see why.

Brown has absolutely exploded this season, consistently sitting 95-97 with a vicious slider and curveball to boot, giving him one of the most exciting repertoires in the system. Brown already had Tommy John surgery earlier in his career so there should be little risk there, and he’s only been getting better and better. Over his last ten starts in Single-A with the Phillies, Brown had an ERA of 2.55 over 53 innings with an astounding 83 strikeouts to 10 walks.

That stretch earned him a promotion to Double-A and Minor League Co-Pitcher of the Month honors before he was traded. His first career Double-A start came with the Cubs and he didn’t miss a beat, striking out nine batters and allowing just one run on four hits and two walks over five innings and 75 pitches. Brown is yet another encouraging arm the Cubs have added within the last year and could be a key piece in a pitching revolution that could be coming to Chicago.

Grade: A+

Cubs, Mets could only get together on a relatively minor deal in the end

Mychal Givens felt like a good secondary piece to what could’ve been a blockbuster trade that sent Willson Contreras to the Mets for a massive haul of prospects, but for one reason or another, such a trade never materialized, and instead Givens on his own was sent to New York on his own at the buzzer in a somewhat underwhelming end to a surprising and strange day.

That’s not to knock Givens, who was excellent with the Cubs, who didn’t allow a run from June 14 until his trade and had a K/9 of 11.3, but as a rental, a Givens trade was more procedural than anything else. In return, the Cubs got Single-A reliever Saul Gonzalez, a mountainous righty standing at 6’8.

Gonzalez sits in the low-90’s, hitting up to 95 with a slider offering as well. The numbers for Gonzalez were very good, striking out 27.6 percent of the batters he faced and walking just 6.7% of them while working to the tune of a 2.81 ERA.

Gonzalez is already 22 so he likely won’t be in Single-A much longer, and perhaps with his tall stature there may some more projectability. It is somewhat surprising the Cubs couldn’t get a little bit more for Givens, but you can only expect so much in exchange for a rental righty reliever.

Grade: B-

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While this trade deadline will understandably have the questions surrounding what happened with Contreras and Happ, the front office seemed to do pretty well in the trades they did make. We probably won’t know what to make of the Contreras and Happ situations until the offseason, but that’s a conversation for another day.