Cubs: This latest Willson Contreras trade proposal is a hard pass

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Ah, here we go again. It seems only fitting we’ve finally reached hot take season with the Chicago Cubs and their plan with Willson Contreras. Last summer it seemed a near-slam dunk the two-time All-Star would be headed out the door, but it did not happen. Now, as we barrel toward the trade deadline it seems almost inevitable this could be the final month-and-a-half of his time on the North Side.

During this time of the year, for what it’s worth, I hardly give much credence to many trade rumors because they tend to be outlandish. Nor do I tend to break them down simply because it’s not worth the time. However, for arguments sake and as an exercise I thought I’d break down the latest proposal.

Cubs, Giants don’t make sense for this Willson Contreras trade proposal

Last summer the San Francisco Giants pulled off a deal at the midnight hour for former NL Rookie of the Year and MVP Kris Bryant in exchange outfielder Alexander Canario and right-hander Caleb Kilian. Canario is currently ranked as the Cubs’ number 18 prospect and Kilian has made one start this year for the Cubs. Both guys are bright spots in the organization and after the Giants agreed to pick up the remainder of the $19.5 million owed to Bryant, it made the deal even stronger.

Contreras is not Bryant. However he is one of the most electric catchers in the majors. Just recently, the idea was kicked around whether or not Contreras was valuable enough to nab a top 100 prospect. The short answer to that is yes, but I digress. This specific proposal that caught my eye focused on catcher Patrick Bailey, outfielder Hunter Bishop and right-hander Ryan Murphy.

Eh, try again.

Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /

In need of a catcher, does Patrick Bailey make sense for the Cubs?

Let’s start with Bailey. I have no qualms with him as a prospect, however things haven’t quite gone his way starting off. He currently is ranked as the Giants’ number five prospect per Baseball America. The big thing that Bailey has at his advantage in any possible trade is his age. He is still just 23 years old and that may be a factor in the struggles early on in his career.

Bailey was selected 13th overall in 2020 by the Giants and had himself a resoundingly impressive season in Single-A, slashing .322/.415/.531 over 47 games. Midway through last season the Giants promoted him to High-A where he struggled to maintain consistency and hit just .185 with a .296 slugging percentage.

Instead of moving him back to Single-A this year, Bailey remained at High-A and the struggles have remained, as well. There have been some positives as the numbers progressed and his strikeout rate dropped but currently through 39 games, Bailey has posted only a 99 wRC+.

His ability to be patient is strong as evidence of his 13.5 percent walk rate, however there just is not enough there to warrant any consideration as an option for the Cubs moving forward.

Cubs already boast embarrassment of riches in outfield prospects

The second name thrown into the mix was Bishop. Now, according to MLB.com’s rankings, this kid is a top 10 organizational prospect finding his name at number eight. According to Baseball America, he isn’t even on the Giants top 30 list. Talk about a polarizing point of view. I will hedge with Baseball America, however.

Bishop, like Bailey, is 23 years old and was taken in the first round at 10th overall just a year before Bailey. I’ll cut Bishop some slack as pre-pandemic he was tearing the cover off the ball. In 2019 at Low-A in 25 games, Bishop posted a 145 wRC+ with a 24.8 percent walk rate. You have to love the chaos of pitching in the minor leagues.

Last season Bishop missed nearly the entire season with a shoulder injury which hampered his development significantly. Instead of moving back to Low-A however, the Giants started him back at High-A and the results have been poor. Bishop has posted a 98 wRC+ through 48 games this season, hitting just .213 with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate. Not great, Bob.

Take into account the fact the Cubs have four outfield prospects in the current organizational top 10, all of whom have shown incredible stuff, Bishop is another easy pass as in a package for a player of Contreras’ caliber.

Cubs could always use more young pitching – especially in this trade

The final part of this offer is Murphy, who would actually make sense as a starting point for the Cubs. However it would need to be Murphy-plus if the Giants want a shot at the Cubs’ backstop. Murphy is a fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft and has been stellar since making his professional baseball debut last season.

Through his first 26 games in the minors, Murphy holds a 2.59 ERA with a ridiculous 39.5 percent strikeout rate. As the Cubs are a team in dire need of pitching, Murphy actually fits the team’s big picture. Guys like Murphy can be a rare combination in terms of their overall future outlook, and his profile would fit the system well.

Next. 4 can't-miss options for the Cubs in the MLB Draft. dark

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Overall, it will end up taking a lot for a team to acquire Contreras however a lot less than most people think because, well, baseball. Ultimately it is now or never if the Cubs want to trade Contreras. He is having a career year and it only makes sense with guys waiting in the wings. Ultimately, however, its highly unlikely the Giants will be the landing point.

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