Projecting next year’s Chicago Cubs starting rotation

This has been about as poor of a season as the Chicago Cubs could have expected and the trade deadline can not come soon enough. Significant changes will once again sweep the current roster away and shift the focus to the future with the 2022 season essentially in the dumps by mid-June.

The front office somehow managed to spend big money while simultaneously not making enough significant moves to bolster the offense for this season. Both big-ticket signings in Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman are shelved with injuries and the Cubs are looking up at the Pirates in the division standings – never a good sign.

Things can shift next season with a strong free agency period if the Cubs really want to be aggressive. If that proves to be the case and Chicago puts its best foot forward heading into next year, they will need to work on the starting rotation first and foremost.

Pitching continues to be a question mark as quality starts are too uncommon to rely on any one particular arm. What could the rotation look like in 2023?

Marcus Stroman returns as the top arm for the Cubs

The Cubs got aggressive and landed one of the hottest arms on the market last winter in Stroman. Though he has had some ups and downs so far in Chicago, he possesses the upside on the mound that this team needs.

Stroman can lead the pitching unit throughout the season and his upside as an ace has to be appealing enough to give him that opportunity in 2023. His signing makes me think the front office believes the Cubs can win and proved that they are willing to spend the money to make things happen.

Of the current veterans on the roster, Stroman is the closest guarantee to returning and playing a significant role for the team next season. The rest gets a bit more challenging to predict.

Justin Steele continues to climb the ranks in the Cubs rotation

Justin Steele has been electric at times since getting the call to the big leagues. There is a future for the crafty lefty out of the bullpen if the Cubs wanted to utilize his arm from there but I like his fit as a starter that can give them six strong innings to open it up.

Steele has hit some bumps along the way but rough outings are to be expected from a guy with limited experience. He is second on the Cubs in innings pitched this season with 54 innings under his belt. He also leads the team in strikeouts and has allowed just two home runs.

Command is an issue for Steele and that will be something to keep an eye on as he progresses as a starting pitcher for this organization. He has walked a team-high 26 batters through 12 starts.

His 1-5 record in 2022 is a testament to his team’s struggles and less of a sign of his pitching. Sure, Steele has had some poor starts but his run support and bullpen help have been a disaster.

Unfortunately for Steele, he has four starts of at least five innings with just one earned run or fewer to his credit that have resulted in a no-decision. The Cubs, as a team, have lost three of those four, including Steele’s last two starts – both of which were gems against quality teams.

For whatever reason, the offense can never seem to get it going when Steele is on the rubber and his numbers are taking a bit of a hit. If everything is put together, Steele can be a very solid lefty starter for a long time in Chicago.

The Cubs will need to add at least one more free agent

The Cubs will face serious pressure to spend money during the winter. Anthony Rizzo even came out with some strong words about the organization and suggested that their notoriety and large market status should enable them to compete year in and year out.

The worst part about his stance is that it is 100 percent true and accurate. The Cubs have no excuse to not compete against the rest of the National League when the resources are there. They gave Seiya Suzuki a five-year deal worth $80 million and Marcus Stroman received $71 million over three.

They were willing to spend the money in 2022 so why should we expect any less in 2023? A lot of media members have mentioned the Cubs going after a top shortstop in free agency but a pitcher would be much more enticing. Nico Hoerner should stay at shortstop and continue to grow his game while the team addresses an actual issue.

The upcoming free agent crop features a lot of outstanding starting pitchers. If they wind up on the open market, the Cubs should be all over the top names.

Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove are the two names that stand out to me at this point. Nola carries a 3.42 ERA through 13 starts this season with 10.0 K/9. He is not as much of a game-changer as other options on the market but his value should be what the Cubs are looking for to fill out their rotation.

Musgrove, on the other hand, is having a phenomenal season with the Padres. He is currently 7-0 with a 1.50 ERA across 72 innings. He’s allowed just 12 earned runs in his 11 starts to open the season.

Kyle Hendricks and Keegan Thompson both have a case for the final spot

The final spot in the rotation could go a number of ways. Chicago could add another free agent or dip into the minor leagues to add the final arm but the most likely outcome is Kyle Hendricks once again.

Hendricks was a franchise hero at one point and I understand the infatuation with his career ending with the Cubs but he is far from the pitcher he used to be. He was terrible in 2021 with a 4.77 ERA, a career-high 31 home runs allowed and a league-worst 200 hits allowed.

This season, Hendricks is on pace to be just as bad for the Cubs. Heading into Tuesday’s start, his ERA had ballooned to 5.22 with 11 home runs to his credit already. His time is dwindling but the Cubs might not have any other option.

Keegan Thompson would be a strong candidate to challenge Hendricks for the final spot in the rotation after he’s made some impressive starts this season. However, I think Thompson’s future is out of the bullpen and as a spot-starter as he was to open up this season. His struggles lately seem to be a result of shifting to the rotation, which was not his role.

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Ultimately, Hendricks is probably going to finish his career with the Cubs in some role or another. It will not be the right move for the club but it’s a nice sendoff to his career.