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Cubs have a recent history of free agent pitchers starting slow
Some Chicago Cubs fans might be a tad nervous seeing the results of Marcus Stroman so far this season. Through three starts he sports a 8.78 ERA. Of course, Stroman was the big free agent pitching move of the season, so his rough start is certainly viewed through a magnifying glass.
However, it is still very early and Stroman has a great track record. It was an abnormal preseason after all. Now is not the time to panic yet. Frustrating? Absolutely, but there is plenty of season left. It is worth noting that a number of free agent pitchers started off poorly when they came to the Cubs, and it all worked out eventually. Here are some notable ones.
Cubs: Jon Lester – 2015
One of the big-time names of the 2014-2015 offseason was veteran lefty Jon Lester. Cubs fans prayed for him to come to the North Side, and he eventually did on a six-year deal. Everyone remembers what he did for the team in the regular season and postseason. Two-time All Star, co-NLCS MVP and World Series champion made that contract worth every penny.
However, he did not start off his tenure with the Cubs very well. In April 2015 he started four games and posted a 6.23 ERA, surrendering 15 earned runs and 29 hits (.322 average against) in 21 1/3 innings. While some of it was flukey/misfortune, the results in the box score are what matter in the end. His worst start of those four was giving up six earned to the Reds in his second start on 10 hits in six innings.
For the rest of 2015, he posted a 2.99 ERA, 3.00 FIP and .299/.280/.362 slash against. He honestly was All-Star worthy, and probably would have gotten a nod in Cincinnati that year had it not been for the first few rough starts. His numbers by the break were very good (3.59 ERA) but they could have been even better. Oh well. Nobody is questioning that deal.
Cubs: To say year 1 of the Yu Darvish deal was a disaster is an understatement
The Cubs landed free agent hurler Yu Darvish in the winter of 2018. It was a six-year, $126 million deal which was seen as very risky by some. Darvish had come off a historically bad World Series performance with the Dodgers the year before, and already had an injury history.
His first year as a Cub was beyond disastrous. He made eight starts from April through May before suffering from tendinitis and elbow issues, which would eventually result in him missing the rest of the season. Of the eight starts he made that year, only three of them were of quality. The right-hander pitched to a 4.95 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 21 walks in 40 innings and seven home runs against. He gave up five earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his Cubs debut.
Darvish returned in 2019, and the results still were not good the first two months. In his first 12 starts, he posted a 5.02 ERA, 5.38 FIP and .364 OBP against. It was June 5 and onward where he would become the ace of the staff.
His final 31 starts as a Cub from that date through 2020, he pitched to a 2.89 ERA, 249 strikeouts, 29 walks and .204 average against in 193 2/3 innings pitched. That sample size is pretty much a full normal season for a starter. Darvish ended his Cubs tenure with a 3.60 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 1.11 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 in 51 starts.
Cubs: It was so ugly early one that there was virtually no trust in him until 2021
After remaining a free agent well into the 2019 season, the Cubs signed elite closer Craig Kimbrel in early June to a three-year, $43 million deal with a 2022 option. Kimbrel came to Chicago with 333 career saves, a 1.91 ERA and 14.7 K/9. He had won a World Series with the Boston Red Sox the year prior.
It took time for Kimbrel to ramp up after signing, and he would not make his Cubs debut until June 27. He appeared in 17 games and pitched to a 6.53 ERA, gave up a whopping nine home runs (career-high to this day), walked 12 batters and posted a 1.6 WHIP. While he saved 13/16 games, he was struggling mightily while going out there.
In 2020 he saw early struggles again, and the closing duties were transferred to Jeremy Jeffress. It took until 2021 to return to form. Converting 23 of 25 saves, Kimbrel posted a microscopic 0.49 ERA, 1.10 FIP, 0.71 WHIP, 15.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 39 appearances. His efforts earned him his eighth career All-Star nod. That stretch of dominance lowed his Cubs cumulative ERA from 6.00 after 2020, to 3.22 by the time he finished his final appearance as a Cub.
If one were to go back in time and show a Cubs fan in 2019 his final numbers only (not broken down by season), the unknowing fan would probably think his overall tenure was pretty good.
Cubs: John Lackey came for jewelry, and he ended up getting it
John Lackey was signed mainly for his postseason experience prior to the 2016 season. Lackey was very familiar with Wrigley Field as he had spent the last few seasons with the Cardinals. His tenure with the Cubs would be his last as a professional.
In April 2016 he made four starts and pitched to a 4.97 ERA, .266 average against and 25 hits in 25 1/3 innings. Two of those starts saw him surrender six earned runs. There was worry that he might be showing age, but he aged like fine wine the rest of the season. May onward he pitched to a 3.09 ERA, 3.89 FIP and .210 average against in 25 starts. He eventually got that jewelry he wanted as the Cubs went on to win it all.
Lackey did not have the most stellar seasons in 2017, but he still finished his Cubs tenure with a 3.94 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 359 innings. His second and final year he was 38 years old and pretty much did what he needed to do to help get the Cubs their elusive title.
Next. Drew Smyly could be an X-factor in Cubs rotation. dark
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Obviously, just because these guys did one thing does not mean it will go exactly the same for Stroman. This is just worth noting before writing off an All-Star pitcher. Right now, the hope is Stroman rebounds just like these others did. Hopefully sooner than later.