Cubs: 3 perfect fit free agent shortstops in next year’s class
With Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Javier Baez already officially off the board, it’ll be all eyes on Trevor Story and Carlos Correa once the lockout ends. The Chicago Cubs are among the group of teams in need of help at shortstop – but looking ahead to next winter, they need to stick to their guns, because there are more options on the very-near horizon.
Correa is looking for a record-breaking contract in his first foray into free agency – one that will likely span at least the next decade, a length Jed Hoyer is reportedly unwilling to go to. Between the length and the fact it’ll likely come with a $350+ million price tag, this is the perfect time for Hoyer to find a next-tier option, even on a one or two-year deal, and bide his time with an eye on next winter’s free agent class.
Why? If the stars properly align, we could see a trio of big-time shortstops headlining the 2023 crop of free agents – giving Chicago a chance to evaluate internal options this season, knowing they can pivot to reinforcements next winter if things go awry.
Cubs: Dansby Swanson, fresh off a title, looking for another big season
Former Vanderbilt standout and first-rounder Dansby Swanson now has a ring to his credit – and now, he’ll look to put together a strong showing in 2022 to set himself up for a dive into the free agent waters come next winter.
Now, let’s be clear – Dansby Swanson is not Carlos Correa, nor am I suggesting he is. But if you’re not about locking up $35+ million of your payroll annually in one player, Swanson is a perfectly serviceable option for the Cubs moving forward. He ranked in the 82nd percentile in both outs above average and sprint speed in 2021 – and was in the top quarter or so of the league in chase rate and barrel percentage.
His strikeout rate has climbed by around four percent when you look at the last two years combined against the early years of his career, so you’d like to see him make some adjustments this year and get that trend corrected. But he’s a quality defender and could be a nice piece for Chicago – and one that would cost a mere fraction of what Correa will – and he’ll play the 2023 season at just 29 years old.
Cubs: Want an elite defender with a plus bat? Trea Turner has you covered
If I were a betting man, I’d say the Dodgers take that money Carlos Correa thinks is earmarked for him once the lockout ends and hand it to Trea Turner. The reigning NL batting champ is hitting his stride at the perfect time – setting himself up for a major payday next winter.
Since the start of the 2020 season, Turner has slashed .330/.380/.551 – good for a 150 OPS+. He racked up 6.5 bWAR last season, leading all of baseball with his .328 average and 195 hits, and pacing the Senior Circuit with 32 stolen bases. You want to talk about giving the Cubs’ lineup a new look?
How about adding Turner, who ranked in the top percentile in the league in sprint speed last season and the top three percent in xBA. Throw in the fact he’s an above-average defender and it’s safe to say that if he doesn’t sign an extension with Los Angeles prior to next winter, he’s going to be a hot commodity – and one that would certainly intrigue Jed Hoyer.
He brings a profile the Cubs haven’t seen in some time. Baez was unarguably a thrill to watch, but how Turner goes about his at-bats is, to say the least, quite different than the free-swinging, feast-or-famine El Mago we all came to know and love.
If Xander Bogaerts opts out in Boston, will the Cubs come calling?
Since the start of the 2018 season, all Xander Bogaerts has done as a member of the Red Sox is hit .299/.371/.523 (133 OPS+) and earn a pair of All-Star nods to go with two Silver Sluggers. Now, he’s a truly unique presence on this list because unlike Turner and Swanson, he may not hit free agency at all.
Bogaerts is in the midst of a six-year, $120 million extension he signed with the Sox – but reportedly plans on exercising his player opt-out at the end of the 2020 season. It’s also worth nothing that based on that ESPN report, he’d opt out with plans of signing a new deal with Boston – but money talks, and free agency usually allows players to maximize their earning potential.
Also unlike the other two names on this list, there are serious concerns about Bogaerts glove – he may profile better at second moving forward – as Statcast pegged him in the bottom two percent of the league in OAA last year.
But he doesn’t strike out a lot and he walks a ton – not to mention his ability to hit for extra bases. If I were doing a totally subjective ranking of the three, it goes Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson – but with their varying skillsets comes varying price tags, something that could very well decide the direction the Cubs go.
All that said, it’s worth remembering that when the lockout ends and the Correa rumors and flying past us left and right, there are alternatives just one year away. Hoyer doesn’t need to swing for the fences as soon as he’s got a clean slate – patience will be a key as Chicago re-tools.