3 distinct ways the Chicago Cubs could structure a Carlos Correa contract

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The first talks between the league and the MLBPA went about as expected this week – in other words, poorly. MLB made a proposal and the players were discouraged by what the owners brought to the table.

Spring training is set to kick off in just over a month, but I wouldn’t be booking those trips to see the Chicago Cubs in Mesa just yet because there’s a good chance at least some of the Grapefruit and Cactus League schedules will be affected by this whole mess.

Once the lockout ends, it seems pretty likely teams will be staring at a wildly condensed time frame in which they’ll need to do 2-3 months of work that couldn’t be done this winter. That includes signing free agents, which in the Cubs’ case, could center around shortstop Carlos Correa.

No one really knows what Correa’s market will look like once the lockout lifts, but there’s a good chance you’ll see the Dodgers and Yankees at least kick the tires on the reigning Platinum Glove winner. The Cubs appear to be in the mix, too – and the level of competition for Correa could do a lot in shaping what his next deal looks like.

Here are three distinct ways the Cubs (or any other team, really) could structure an offer to Correa before Opening Day hits.

3 ways the Cubs could structure a Carlos Correa contract: 10 years, $350M

Look, if you’re going for something like what the Mets gave Francisco Lindor after acquiring him from Cleveland (10 years, $341 million) or Bryce Harper got from the Phillies (13 years, $330 million), this is the way to do it.

You know Scott Boras is going to use the Lindor deal, along with the Corey Seager pact with Texas from earlier this offseason (10 years, $325 million) as the measuring stick here. $300 million is a floor for Correa if you’re thinking about any sort of deal that spans the next decade or more.

We know the Cubs aren’t keen on dipping their toe in this pool. They’re more focused on shorter-term pacts. It’s not the dollars that concern them. Rather it’s being locked into one player and having a major chunk of your payroll accounted for over the next 10 years. Given how the Jason Heyward contract has aged on the North Side, I’d say that’s a valid concern.

(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

3 ways the Cubs could structure a Carlos Correa contract: 7 years, $280M

If you think Correa is magically going to change his mind and think a deal that doesn’t run for a decade or longer is acceptable, you need to understand something. For that to happen, you need to be throwing a record level of money his way annually – and that’s what this deal would do.

A seven-year pact at a $40 million AAV would make Correa the highest paid position player (in terms of AAV) in baseball history, topping Mike Trout’s $36 million mark. It would be the second-richest deal in terms of AAV, behind only Max Scherzer, who netted $43.3 million annually from the Mets this winter on a three-year deal.

Not only are you going to be coughing up at least $40 million each year, but odds are, for him to take this deal, there’s at least one opt-out in there somewhere, probably after year two or three so he could hit free agency again at the end of his 20s/start of his 30s, with a chance to cash in one last time in his career.

This is a lot of money – and even with Correa in tow, it’s hard to see the Cubs being legitimate contenders in 2022. Are you going to roll the dice long-term and hope you can build something around him? It’s a tough question to answer, that’s for sure.

3 ways the Cubs could structure a Carlos Correa contract: 3 years, $150M

OK, let’s assume like everything else in today’s world, things go totally sideways and Correa can’t find anyone willing to go long-term on a deal. Instead, he’s got 5-6 serious suitors vying for his services on a shorter pact.

That means to separate yourself from the field, you’re going to need to really blow everyone out of the water. If you’re going toe-to-toe with Los Angeles and New York, you need to drop the checkbook on the table – which is how you could end up knocking on a $50 million AAV.

Again, I definitely don’t think this is a particularly likely scenario, but stranger things have happened. If he’s healthy, Correa is a cornerstone – but a team like the Cubs are going all-in if they’re handing out a deal like this, and it would also mean there are several other impactful moves waiting in the wings before the season starts.

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Let us know what you’d want the Cubs’ offer to Correa to look like in the comments. Hopefully, the MLBPA and owners can bridge the gap in talks soon and we don’t lose any regular season action. Until then, we wait.

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3 ways the Cubs could structure a Carlos Correa contract: 10 years, $350M

3 ways the Cubs could structure a Carlos Correa contract: 7 years, $280M

3 ways the Cubs could structure a Carlos Correa contract: 3 years, $150M

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