If the Cubs want to keep Willson Contreras, they’ll have to get uncomfortable

Major League Baseball and the MLBPA could reportedly start talking again later this month. To me, that makes it seem pretty likely we’re going to be looking at a delayed, and likely truncated, spring training calendar this year. It also means we’re all going to be sitting on our hands as we wonder what the Cubs roster will look like come Opening Day.

Questions still facing Chicago include what the bullpen might be comprised of, whether or not they’ll be able to land Carlos Correa in free agency (or another shortstop alternative, such as Trevor Story) and, internally, if there’s any hope of extending two-time All-Star catcher Willson Contreras.

Contreras’ stock has dipped a bit in the last two years, but he’s still a top 10 backstop in the game in most rankings. In 2021, the Venezuelan native put up 4.1 bWAR and a 108 OPS+ across 128 games. Getting him any kind of backup was a major challenge for the club, with the Cubs deploying a franchise record number of catchers last year.

One of the early moves they made prior lockout was bringing in veteran catcher Yan Gomes on a two-year deal with an option for a third. Of course, that immediately raised alarms with Cubs fans on Twitter, who saw it as the writing on the wall when it came to Contreras’ future.

Heading into his final year of team control, Contreras is yet to have any substantive talks with the front office on what an extension might look like. The simple truth is this: if Chicago seriously wants to extend him, they’re going to have to overpay, at least in the sense of what they peg Contreras’ value at.

Will the Cubs step outside their comfort zone to extend Willson Contreras?

We’ve seen the offer the Cubs made to Anthony Rizzo this past spring age tremendously well, even when it was ridiculed at the time. It told us that the team has their valuations on their guys and are very unlikely to exceed them, even if it means watching a Rizzo or Contreras move on.

Rizzo, barring something totally unforeseen, will spend the rest of his career somewhere other than Chicago. But it’s worth asking the question: given the organization’s relative lack of impact depth behind the dish (especially with Miguel Amaya missing yet another season in 2022), is this one of those circumstances where overpaying is necessary? It may very well be.

You’re talking something in the four-year, $80 million range (focus more on the $20 million AAV) if you want to get a deal done with Contreras – or really even make any progress on a deal. The Cubs have the money, lack the depth behind him on the roster outside Gomes and may break their own rule when it comes to the fan favorite.