How FanGraphs ranks the current top Chicago Cubs prospects

FanGraphs has released updated 2021 prospect rankings out as we head into the holiday season and a new year. After the trade deadline, the Chicago Cubs were among several teams that bolstered their farm system, drastically impacting the depth of the organization. Not to mention recent 2021 draft picks have already made their way into the conversations of at least top-20 ranked prospects in the system.

The people at FanGraphs have their methods of ranking prospects and giving them their projected value and “risk”, which is based on a player’s distance between their perceived ceiling and floor. Future Value, or FV as it is referred to on FanGraphs, ranks a prospect on a scale of 20-80. “Risk” ranks a prospect low, medium or high.

As prospects grow and develop, rankings constantly change. The thing to note about the Cubs farm system is that much of the pool is still pretty raw. Six of the 10 top prospects are under 22 years old, and a number of these guys have not yet had more than a year or so playing professional ball.

The 2020 pandemic season with no MiLB baseball has also impacted some of these guys and their growth. Their skillsets and raw talent have put them high in the farm rankings alone and now have the chance to grow into their own. 2022 will be a big year for a lot of these guys to really establish themselves as prospects and/or clear their way to the majors.

Chicago Cubs top prospects heading into 2022 – per FanGraphs

1. Brennen Davis – Age: 22 – 60 FV – Risk: Medium

No surprise here, Davis has clearly established himself as Chicago’s top prospect. FanGraphs has Davis as the #13 overall prospect in the game. He displayed his abilities in 2021 between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A ball. He slashed .260/.375/.494 with 19 home runs, 25 doubles, 50 walks and 53 in 99 games. He also won Futures Game MVP with a multi-home run performance. Sooner rather than later, Davis will be up with the Cubs.

2. Kevin Alcantara – Age: 19 – 50 FV – Risk: High

Coming over from the Yankees in the Anthony Rizzo deal, Alcantara originally signed with New York out of the Dominican Republic in 2018. The 6’6″, 188-pound outfielder played in 25 rookie ball games with the Cubs in Arizona and slashed .337/.415/.609 with four home runs and 13 walks. MLB.com says in their scouting report he is, “built like a younger Dexter Fowler.”

3. Reginald Preciado – Age: 18 – 50 FV – Risk: High 

The frustration from Cubs fans over the Yu Darvish deal has diminished over the past year, seeing as the prospects in return have started making a name for themselves in the system. Preciado was one of those names. Originally signed out of Panama in 2019, Preciado finally played professional ball in 2021 with the Cubs organization in rookie ball. He slashed .333/.383/.511 in 34 games in the ACL. He is a switch hitter with a “compact swing” per scouting reports. Hopefully he continues to grow as we see him play in at least A ball in 2022.

4. Cristian Hernandez – Age: 17 – 45+ FV – Risk: High 

“Baby A-Rod” as he has been already called could very well have the highest ceiling of anyone in the system. At just 17 he has already made several top-100 lists and was considered by some scouts as the top international prospect in 2020. The shortstop from the Dominican Republic impressed in DSL rookie ball in 2021, hitting .285/.398/.424 wth five home runs, 21 stolen bases and five doubles in 47 games. He has a long way to go, but he will be the most exciting prospect to ascend the system since Kris Bryant.

5. Ed Howard – Age: 19 – 45+ FV – Risk: High 

The pride of Mount Carmel HS was the Cubs first-round draft pick in 2020. Athletic and defensively gifted, Howard was considered the best shortstop in the draft. The pandemic had a negative impact on him playing his senior year, and he did not play competitive baseball until 2021. Howard spent last year with the A-Ball Myrtle Beach Pelicans where he spent much time getting his mojo back. The .225/.277/.315 slash in 80 games might not look great, but he began to look better as the year went on. He displayed his superb athletic ability in the infield at least. 2022 will be big for him, but he still has a long way to go to get to the MLB level.

6. Brailyn Marquez – Age: 22 – 45+ FV – Risk: High

He has been among the Cubs top prospects for some time now. He is the highest-ranked prospect in the system to have seen MLB action, though it was very brief in the final game of the 2020 season. Unfortunately, he missed all of 2021 due to injury and COVID-related issues, and 2022 will be about getting back into the baseball grind. The Dominican southpaw has really nasty stuff and will likely project to come out of the bullpen when he makes his way back to the majors, which will hopefully be sooner rather than later. He’s till a very important piece for the future.

7. Pete Crow-Armstrong – Age: 19 – 45 FV – Risk: Medium

Acquired from the Mets in the Javier Baez deal, Crow-Armstrong is an intriguing prospect. He is an outfielder with high-contact skills but not much power per the scouting. Yet he still possesses a lot of tools, including good defense. Sounds like the Mets were high on him, as they drafted him 19th overall out of Harvard Westlake HS in 2020, and parting ways with him was tough. He was injured much of last year and only played in six games in the Mets system. 2022 will hopefully be his first full season as a pro.

8. Miguel Amaya – Age: 22 – 45 FV – Risk: Medium

Devastating news came out a few weeks ago regarding the catching prospect’s playing status going forward as he will miss the 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery. Amaya had already missed much of 2021 due to injury and now he will miss a full season. Amaya was far and away the best catching prospect in the system and was on the Cubs 40-man roster. He hit .215/.406/.304 in 23 games with the Double-A Tennessee Smokies in 2021.

9. Jordan Wicks – Age: 22 – 45 FV – Risk: Low

The Cubs first pick in the 2021 draft (21st overall), Wicks shinned with the Kansas State Wildcats and has significant upside. Him falling to the Cubs in the draft could turn out to be really big as they need to groom more starting pitching from within the system.  Being compared to both Jon Lester and Cole Hamels, the southpaw possesses a low-to-mid 90s fastball with a plus changeup, slider and curveball. His change is ranked his most effective pitch. He pitched in seven innings with low-A South Bend last year and surrendered four runs, walked three and struck out five. The hope is that he comes up sooner rather than later and can make an immediate impact on the MLB level.

10. Owen Caissie – Age: 19 – 45 FV – Risk: High

Another component in the Darvish deal with the Padres, Caissie was originally drafted by the Padres out of Notre Dame HS, Canada. He got his first taste of pro ball with the Cubs organization last year between rookie ACL and Myrtle Beach. In ACL he slashed .359/.478/.596 in 32 games before being promoted to A-ball. With Myrtle Beach, he slashed .233/.367/.329 with a home run and 16 walks in 22 games. Strikeouts are something he will work to cut down on, but he has a great eye at taking pitches and drawing walks and can hit the ball very hard.

2022 could really help determine the path of where many of these prospects will be by 2023/2024, that is why next year is so important. With Jed Hoyer hiring a lot of new people in the organization, the goal is to see much improved development within the system from the past several years.