Previewing the projected 2022 Chicago Cubs starting rotation

Undoubtedly the most glaring of the many needs facing the Chicago Cubs this winter was improving the starting rotation.

In 2021, the rotation put up a dismal 5.27 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 29th-ranked 2.6 fWAR. The notable additions Jed Hoyer and the front office have made will hopefully bring a much-improved rotation in 2022. While it lacks the firepower of the New York Mets’ or Los Angeles Dodgers’ starting five, Chicago’s rotation has the potential to be very solid and features quality building blocks as the team works through this current transition phase.

There is a possibility that another arm could be added after the lockout ends with a few guys left on the board, but this is what we have right now.

Breaking down the projected Chicago Cubs starting rotation

Marcus Stroman

While not a typical ace, he is probably your best starting pitcher. Stroman’s fastball sits 92-93 MPH and he mixes in a cutter, slider, curve and occasional changeup along with it. He strikes out around 19-20 percent of the hitters he faces and gets a lot of ground balls (career 57.4 percent). While not a huge strikeout pitcher, his command is very sharp. Last season with the Mets he pitched to a 3.02 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.15 WHIP and 3.4 fWAR.

Kyle Hendricks

“The Professor” struggled mightily in 2021. The man with a career 3.36 ERA and 1.14 WHIP posted a 4.77 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 1.35 WHIP and allowed an MLB-worst 200 base hits. He had been so consistently good throughout his career, and deserves the benefit of the doubt for now. It is very possible he just had a bad year and can rebound in 2022. Hendricks had talked about execution on his pitches last year and something seemed to be off for whatever reason. As long as his command is working and he is executing with the offspeed stuff, he will be effective.

Wade Miley

Claimed off waivers from the Reds, Miley had one of his better years in 2021. The 35-year-old lefty pitched to a 3.37 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.97 FIP and 2.9 fWAR in 28 starts. He’s a crafty veteran who will not miss a lot of bats. He primarily throws a cutter, with a fastball and changeup. He will occasionally throw breaking balls, but he is mainly a cutter, fastball, change guy. When he is on, he works his pitches on the outside corners to induce weak contact. Miley has pitched in 11 seasons and started 28 or more games eight times.

Adbert Alzolay

In his first truly full MLB season (not really counting 2020), Alzolay had big ups and downs. The home run ball was a huge issue as he gave up 25 in 125 2/3 innings and he finished 2021 with a 4.58 ERA. However, he did whiff 128 hitters and sports a career 9.6 K/9 in 159.1 innings. The stuff is very promising, as he can throw a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and has a hard slider. After struggles and an injury last year, he moved to the bullpen where he pitched very well. There is a significant possibility that he will end up being a reliever long-term, but he should get another look at starter in 2022.

Alec Mills 

In a best-case scenario, he’s your number five starter and in the worst-case, he’s a spot starter/long relief arm. Mills has had a number of solid starts over the years, though has lacked some consistency. In his career he is a 4.45 ERA pitcher when he starts. In 15 of his 20 starts last year he gave up three earned runs or less. Some really bad outings ballooned his final numbers quite a bit.

Chicago Cubs: Other options that can slide in toward the bottom of the rotation

Justin Steele

As a 25-year-old rookie, the Cubs’ fifth-round pick from the 2014 draft made 20 appearances in 2021, including nine starts. His work as a reliever was fantastic, pitching to a 2.03 ERA and holding hitters to a .149 batting average in 11 appearances. As a starter, it was a mixed bag. He pitched to a 4.95 ERA, 1.4 WHIP and allowed 10 homers in just 43 2/3 innings. There is still some promise with him, he has solid stuff. He throws around 93 MPH on the fastball and mixes in breaking pitches and sinkers.

Keegan Thompson

Another guy who made his MLB debut in 2021, Thompson put together some very solid work. A third-round pick of the Cubs in 2017, Thompson appeared in 32 games, including six starts and pitched to a 3.38 ERA, 1.5 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings. Like Steele, he was better out of the pen. The right-hander posted a 5.51 ERA and walked 11 in 16 1/3innings as a starter. If he does not make the initial rotation, which probably will be the case, he can come out of the pen and make a spot start if needed.

Regardless of what happens in the 4-5 spots in the rotation, the top three arms should be set in stone…unless they make a big deal after the lockout.