Chicago Cubs: 3 cost-effective free agent starters still left on the board

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This week, we watched several more free agent starting pitchers come off the board, including Steven Matz, who signed with the rival St. Louis Cardinals, and, most recently, Michael Wacha, who reportedly inked a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox.

So, here are, yet again, digging deeper into the ranks of potential fits, moving on from even that ‘B-list’ group to guys who are either in the twilight of their careers, coming off injuries or even a combination of the two when looking for potential free agent targets for the Chicago Cubs.

That’s not to say Jed Hoyer won’t pull off something for someone like Marcus Stroman. That’s still a possibility. But even if that happens, it’ll be guys like the ones we’re going to roll through now who wind up rounding out the rotation. Chicago is not going to go out and add a combination like Stroman and Robbie Ray this winter – at least I don’t expect them to.

Chicago Cubs: 3 cost-effective free agent pitchers to consider – #3: James Paxton

Left-hander James Paxton returned to the Seattle Mariners last year, only to undergo Tommy John surgery in April and wind up missing the entire 2021 season. He hasn’t handled a starter’s workload over the course of a full year since 2019 – but there’s little questioning what he’s done when healthy.

In his career, the 33-year-old Paxton has made 137 starts, working to a 3.59 ERA and 3.31 FIP. He’s always showcased an ability to miss bats (he carries an 11.1 K/9 mark since the start of 2017) and is a prime bounceback candidate who’s going to quietly garner interest this winter.

If the Cubs are content sitting out at the top tiers of the market, someone like Paxton makes sense for the same reasons as a Carlos Rodon. Is there risk? Absolutely. But is there potential for significant value, as well? You’d better believe it.

Chicago Cubs: 3 cost-effective free agent pitchers to consider – #2: Zack Greinke

If Zack Greinke wants to keep playing, there are going to be teams out there ready to welcome him with open arms. When we talk about this winter’s free agent class and potential Hall of Famers, it’s all about Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. But Greinke is right there with them.

He’d have to pitch two more years if he wants a shot at joining the 3,000-strikeout club – but for a team like the Cubs that needs to re-establish a new clubhouse culture as they build the next core – what Greinke brings to the table in terms of intelligence and clubhouse presence are just as valuable as what he can do on the mound.

Last season with Houston, the right-hander quietly had another solid year, although a late-season slide put a hurting on his final numbers. During the shortened 2020 season, Greinke worked to a 2.80 FIP. If he can get his strikeout stuff working again in 2022, there’s no reason to think he can’t be a valuable member of a big league starting rotation.

Outside of Kyle Hendricks, this staff lacks much veteran leadership. Greinke can step into that role, help mentor the team’s crop of up-and-coming arms and do what he’s done at every stop along the way of his 18-year career: bring stability and a steadying presence to the mound every five days.

Chicago Cubs: 3 cost-effective free agent pitchers to consider – #1: Danny Duffy

When the Los Angeles Dodgers traded for Danny Duffy at the trade deadline, it looked like they were getting a quality reinforcement in a heated battle for the NL West crown. Instead, the left-hander never threw a pitch for the team because of injury.

Much like Paxton, as long as everything is well health-wise, this is a guy who’s going to draw interest this winter. He got off to a scorching start early last year before that flexor tendon strain took things off the rails pretty quickly. Still, we’re talking about a southpaw who, while not an ace for a contender, is still a quality arm capable of keeping his team in ballgames.

In his career, which has been spent with just one team, the Royals, Duffy carries a 4.17 FIP and 1.316 WHIP across just under 1,200 innings of work. His 9.6 K/9 and 25.8 percent K rate last season both marked personal bests – and, again, fall into that ‘missing bats’ category we know the Cubs’ front office is focused on.

Next. 5 free agents who absolutely aren't signing with the Cubs. dark

He ranked in the top third of the league in whiff rate and Statcast was high on his chase rate numbers, too. With a five-pitch mix, Duffy can keep hitters guessing – and could be a perfect buy-low bounceback candidate for Chicago to consider this winter.

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Chicago Cubs: 3 cost-effective free agent pitchers to consider – #3: James Paxton

Chicago Cubs: 3 cost-effective free agent pitchers to consider – #2: Zack Greinke

Chicago Cubs: 3 cost-effective free agent pitchers to consider – #1: Danny Duffy

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