Chicago Cubs look like early favorites to sign left-hander Yusei Kikuchi

The Chicago Cubs are off to a good start this offseason with regards to their starting pitching. After acquiring Wade Miley via waiver claim from the Reds, they’re one step closer to fielding a competitive rotation. There’s still work to be done though and a harder throwing, higher strikeout pitcher is still needed to bring the pitching staff up to snuff. Although he had a rough season, former Mariners pitcher Yusei Kikuchi is an interesting free agent in this regard.

In MLB Trade Rumors’ free agent predictions, the Cubs were the overwhelming favorite to land Kikuchi (in fact, he was the only free agent any of the writers predicted would go to Chicago). Obviously, predictions aren’t gospel, but there are good reasons for seeing him as a strong fit for the Cubs. Besides their need for arms, Kikuchi fits that mold of a lower-cost strikeout pitcher the team is looking for.

The Chicago Cubs are the perfect fit for Yusei Kikuchi

There are some obvious concerns with Kikuchi. A look at his underlying numbers doesn’t show a lot of promise with him ranking as one of the worst pitchers in barrel percentage, hard hit percentage and both max and average exit velocity. Despite a really solid first half, he crashed and burned hard in the back half of the season to the tune of a 5.98 ERA and 1.705 WHIP.

With that said, he’s got some fundamental tools that make him a perfect fit with the Cubs. His fastball sits comfortably at around 95 mph which offers a different look from the myriad of soft tossers the team already employs. His repertoire is similar to another potential Cubs target in Steven Matz as he uses a cutter, slider, and change-up as well. Beyond that, he actually strikes out batters at an above league average clip, even if it’s balanced out by a poor walk rate.

Any investment in Kikuchi comes with the hope that the Cubs can rework his approach on the mound and that he’ll be healthy throughout the season. His first half was very promising as he pitched to a 3.48 ERA with a 1.088 WHIP, earning his first All-Star nod in the process. Moreover, the Cubs have struck gold in their reclamation projects as of late, the latest and greatest of which we saw last year with their big three bullpen arms.

Kikuchi is definitely a work-in-progress, but the foundation for a good pitcher is there. Assuming the Cubs can figure something out in his delivery and he can avoid breaking down part way through the year, he’s an under-the-radar snag that could be well worth it. If not, a short term deal at around $10 million AAV makes the risk on Kikuchi very low for the team’s long term future.