What are the chances the Chicago Cubs go after Max Scherzer?

Three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer will be hitting free agency this winter, with plenty of interested suitors. Despite his age, Scherzer, 37, showed no signs of slowing down in 2021. On the final year of his seven-year, $210 million deal (worth noting his money this year is being deferred) he split time between the Nationals and the Dodgers and pitched to a 2.46 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 0.864 WHIP, 236 strikeouts and 1.8 BB/9 in 30 starts. His WHIP and H/9 (6.0) were best in baseball among qualified starters.

Scherzer will obviously not get another seven-year deal at this point, but he is still going to get paid big time. Considering his age and where he projects his career to go, a three-year deal worth $30+ million a year could be what we are looking at. MLB insider Jon Heyman added that his annual salary in his next deal could be record-breaking. In the end, he has earned it.

As mentioned before there will be plenty of suitors who would love to get their hands on the eight-time All Star. It feels like big-market teams are among the most likely to land him considering the money he will command. Can the Chicago Cubs make a realistic bid for Scherzer and would he be interested in the North Side? They need a legit ace, an experienced pitcher with a power arm and claim they have money and resources to bring in more talent.

Chicago Cubs: Does the competitive timeline align with a move like this?

Many teams coming off a 71-91 season would not look very appealing to big-time free agents. Especially with a young farm system that is a ways away from coming up the majors and many holes on the MLB roster. However, this is the big market Chicago Cubs.

If the Cubs do indeed practice what they preach and use money and resources to drastically improve the team, then they can make themselves more appealing quickly. Especially if they are offering the money that is desired by the suitor. Scherzer, in terms of talent and experience, would check every box in terms of what this team needs. Last year’s Cubs starting staff was among the very worst in baseball. In fact, they were dead last in fWAR (2.6) and fastball velocity (89.9 MPH) in the National League and second-to-last in K/9.

Scherzer’s electric stuff would immediately make that rotation so much better – simply by introducing a guy with high-velocity and swing-and-miss stuff. Since 2012, Scherzer has struck out 230 hitters or more a season every year outside of the 60-game COVID 2020 campaign. He famously became the 19th pitcher in MLB history to whiff 3,000 hitters in a career back in September. The Cubs have had only one 200+ strikeout pitcher (Yu Darvish in 2019) since 2016.

It is also not like he has had to readjust his game the past few years as he has gotten older either. His average fastball velocity in 2021 was 94.5 MPH while his career average is 94.4 MPH. Add in his slider in 2021 averaged 86 MPH with his career slider average velocity being at 85.7 MPH. Those two pitches have always been his bread and butter.

With all of this being said, is there concern he will keep it up for long? Is shelling out for one starter worth it when the team still might be two years away from legit contention? Giving big money to older guys is always a risk and the Cubs say they want to spend “smartly”. The potential reward for a future Hall of Famer is very high, but each passing year increases the risk.