3 reasons the Chicago Cubs won’t spend big in free agency

If the Chicago Cubs choose not to spend this winter, it certainly isn’t because the funds aren’t available. Even if ownership balks at the idea at returning to pre-pandemic spending, Jed Hoyer will still have north of $100 million to spend this winter.

The team has just three guaranteed deals on the books heading into 2022: Kyle Hendricks, David Bote and Jason Heyward. Ian Happ and Willson Contreras both figure to get decent raises in arbitration, but other than those two, it’s a lot of league minimum and low-risk guys making up the roster.

But that doesn’t mean Chicago will make a major splash this winter, either. There are several things that could stop Hoyer from opening Tom Ricketts’ checkbook this winter, as much as it pains Cubs fans to hear that.

Chicago Cubs: A prospect group that’s still several years away

Adding some star power to the roster is intriguing, to be sure. But if you look back at the guys Chicago added at the trade deadline, nearly all of them are nowhere near ready for the big leagues.

In the deals that sent Joc Pederson, Anthony Rizzo, Andrew Chafin, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez packing in July, Hoyer targeted a mix of young, high-upside prospects. The same approach was applied in the Yu Darvish trade last December; rather than going all-in on a hyped talent, Chicago netted a prospect package of young players who definitely fit into the high-risk, high-reward category.

All this to say the Cubs infused some badly needed talent into the farm system. But the timelines most of these guys have just doesn’t line up with an all-in, high-dollar approach this winter. The front office could just as easily look for one-year flyers on guys they can hopefully flip next summer before really putting their foot on the gas heading into 2023.

Chicago Cubs: Jason Heyward’s contract is doing the team no favors

Jason Heyward will always have a place in Chicago Cubs history for his potentially season-saving rain delay speech during Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. He’s had some big moments and jaw-dropping defensive plays, to be sure. But there’s no arguing against the weight his contract has been on this team.

Even now, Chicago is looking at two more years on his record seven-year, $184 million deal at the cost of $22 million annually. Without that on the books, one can easily make the case the front office might have had the ability to spend very differently following the 2016 season. But hindsight is 20/20 and there’s not much you can do about it now.

I’m not saying Heyward’s deal will literally stop Hoyer from shelling out a high-value contract, but I do think it’ll give him pause if he’s trying to land a B-lister outside of the Carlos Correas and Corey Seagers of the world. He’s going to do everything in his power to avoid handcuffing himself with another bloated contract that could hurt the Cubs down the road.

Waiting until next winter, when you have just one more year of Heyward on the books could be when he decides to strike it big and look to make some noise in free agency. That $44 million is a big chunk of change and could be a factor this offseason.