3 reasons the Chicago Cubs won’t spend big in free agency

If the Chicago Cubs choose not to spend this winter, it certainly isn’t because the funds aren’t available. Even if ownership balks at the idea at returning to pre-pandemic spending, Jed Hoyer will still have north of $100 million to spend this winter.

The team has just three guaranteed deals on the books heading into 2022: Kyle Hendricks, David Bote and Jason Heyward. Ian Happ and Willson Contreras both figure to get decent raises in arbitration, but other than those two, it’s a lot of league minimum and low-risk guys making up the roster.

But that doesn’t mean Chicago will make a major splash this winter, either. There are several things that could stop Hoyer from opening Tom Ricketts’ checkbook this winter, as much as it pains Cubs fans to hear that.

Chicago Cubs: A prospect group that’s still several years away

Adding some star power to the roster is intriguing, to be sure. But if you look back at the guys Chicago added at the trade deadline, nearly all of them are nowhere near ready for the big leagues.

In the deals that sent Joc Pederson, Anthony Rizzo, Andrew Chafin, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez packing in July, Hoyer targeted a mix of young, high-upside prospects. The same approach was applied in the Yu Darvish trade last December; rather than going all-in on a hyped talent, Chicago netted a prospect package of young players who definitely fit into the high-risk, high-reward category.

All this to say the Cubs infused some badly needed talent into the farm system. But the timelines most of these guys have just doesn’t line up with an all-in, high-dollar approach this winter. The front office could just as easily look for one-year flyers on guys they can hopefully flip next summer before really putting their foot on the gas heading into 2023.

This Chicago Cubs team has a lot of holes that need addressed

As fun as it would be to make a couple huge splashes with a Max Scherzer or Carlos Correa, the simple truth is this: even with those two in the mix, this roster isn’t built to win a championship – or even compete for one.

Sure, you might sneak into the postseason with a division crown – but that’s not the goal. Spending $60+ million annually on two guys isn’t the answer, at least not with the roster in its current state. This offseason should help the Cubs start moving in the right direction, and several questions getting answered is the first step.

Chicago will either extend or trade Willson Contreras in the coming months. If you can’t get a deal done here, you’re even further from contending given the alternative options behind the plate. Was Kyle Hendricks’ abysmal 2021 an aberration or legitimate regression? Who will round out the rest of the rotation?

Is Ian Happ the guy we saw flail about at the plate for three months to open the year or the one who finished scorching hot? Can Patrick Wisdom maintain his power while reducing his swing-and-miss tendencies? Is Frank Schwindel the real deal or did we just see a feel good story that’s run its course?

The long and short of it is this: this Cubs team has too much uncertainty, faces too many questions and has too many holes to think a big signing or two fixes will fix things. If Hoyer spends, as he put it, “intelligently,” this winter – the team might be better served.