Chicago Cubs: 10 pitchers to target as MLB trade deadline looms

Jed Hoyer has been perfectly transparent that his efforts before the trade deadline will be focused on selling rather than buying. With this in mind, Chicago Cubs fans should not be expecting a huge splash in the coming days regarding the top arms available via trade this season. However, I expect the front office to work some magic here. In my opinion, the term “selling” in this sense is simply being used none other than to grab every other GM’s attention.

I personally, with the understanding that our top pending free agents are as good as gone, look at the word “selling” as more of an opportunity to buy ourselves top prospects and cost effective starters by means of getting rid of our top guys who will no longer be here soon anyway. Sure, that is selling in a technical sense.

I’m not talking about trading Kris Bryant for a bunch of low level Rookie ball guys that may or may not pan out four or five years from now. I’m talking about top-tier prospects that are big league-ready, looking to get called up and make a serious impact as soon as next year.

Without further ado; let’s take a glance at the top young, cost effective middle of the rotation arms, as well as current big league starters the Cubs can go after via trade (or cash considerations considering they’ll have it available if they sell everybody) to help re-tool and reshape the organization moving forward.

Chicago Cubs: 10 pitchers to target at the trade deadline: #10 – John Means

The southpaw in Baltimore owns a 3.63 career ERA and an even 18-18 lifetime record. Keeping in mind he plays for the lowly Orioles, that win total would likely be higher if he played on a better team. This year, he is 4-3 with a 2.72 ERA and twirled a no-hitter earlier in the season.

Chicago desperately needs a lefty to help diversify the rotation. Means won’t be hitting free agency until 2025, with his first year of arbitration coming up next season. Therefore, he is still very affordable.

Fortunately he is on the Orioles who will, once again, be looking to sell. Unfortunately, it will come at a price. He did miss a good month-and-a-half and has now had one start in his return since having a shoulder issue in which he gave up five earned in five innings of work.

Though not at his best in his return, I fully expect Means to get back on track and knock the rust off as he continues to ramp up his workload. Since Baltimore is not buying at the deadline, it would be interesting to see what they are asking for him. Hopefully two good prospects could do the trick, and if so, the Cubs should try to bid up whoever wants him and secure him for the future.

Chicago Cubs: 10 pitchers to target at the trade deadline: #9 – Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson has been extremely solid for Texas this season. Though he owns a career 4.42 ERA, in 2021 he has gone 6-2 with a 2.86 ERA, earning his first All-Star nod as a result. What I really like about Gibson is where he lacks in strikeouts (7.6 K/9) he makes up for with an extreme ground ball rate of 51.3 percent.

He also owns a microscopic 2.8 BB/9. These efficient numbers allow Gibson to routinely eat innings and get deeper into games by keeping his pitch count low. He owns 12 quality starts at this point of the season.

In terms of contract details, Kyle will receive only $7,000,000 in 2022 before reaching free agency after next season. That is a pretty cost effective extra year of team control remaining. Needless to say – due to his success this season and a weak starting pitching trade market, Gibson’s value has gone way up given up that he is having a career year and also has that additional year of team control.

Much like Kyle Hendricks, his pitch arsenal consists of a sinker, change-up, fastball and curveball. Gibson also mixes in a slider and cutter as well to really keep hitters guessing. I am more than confident Gibson would have a higher win total if we was on a team that didn’t have a -104 run differential.

Chicago Cubs: 10 pitchers to target at the trade deadline: #8 – Asa Lacy

Love me some Asa Lacy. Another southpaw. Though this time we land on a prospect whose big league debut may happen in 2022, more likely 2023 if he pitches at the rate he is right now.

Lacy was absolutely dominant and considered by many the best arm in the entire 2020 draft. Ultimately, he was drafted fourth overall by the Royals in the first round. In college ball at Texas A&M, he shined ever so bright. In three years at the collegiate level, he owned an impressive 2.07 career ERA, 13.3 strikeouts per nine and allowed just 35 earned runs in 152 innings of work. Watching him throw, the kid just threw the ball past guys every time he took the mound.

Unfortunately, so far at High-A this hasn’t been the case as he has yet to find some sort of consistent rhythm. He currently sits with a 2-5 record and 5.19 ERA. His strikeout rate is still 13.7 per nine which is eye-opening, though the 30 earned runs allowed in 50 innings pitched is almost that of his entire college career in one third of the innings.

When I watch Lacy pitch, I just see a special player. I would bet the house that he turns the corner at the pro level before long. There’s just too much talent and potential for him to fall off the face of the earth. With a few adjustments I believe he will be well on his way up the ranks of the minor leagues and to the majors in no time. Hopefully, Hoyer can persuade Kansas City to let go of the young pitcher with the right package. Kansas City started off the year hot and has since fallen to a record of 39-55, prompting Royals GM Dayton Moore to be more on the sell side before the deadline.

Chicago Cubs: 10 pitchers to target at the trade deadline: #7 – Trevor Rogers

Now let’s take a good look at why Trevor Rogers on the Miami Marlins could be available for the right price. Again, going with the theory of Jed selling off the top guys for top prospects, then coming back with the extra salary and buying a little at the same time, Rogers would be the perfect pitcher to put on the Cubbie Blue. Here’s why:

Let’s forget all about Rogers’ rookie season of a 6.11 ERA in 28 innings pitched. Never mind that. in 2021 he has completely flipped it around Lucas Giolito style and now owns a 2.37 ERA in 106 1/3 innings of work and a 7-6 record. He’s averaging 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings and carries an excellent 3.2 BB/9 to go with it, earning him the first All-Star appearance in his young career.

Why would/could this guy even be available should teams come calling? Because the Marlins are falling further and further in the NL East at 11 games back in the division and have no business buying and trying to make a playoff push. The Marlins rotation is actually quite good with Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and Trevor Rogers. They also have Sixto Sanchez (currently injured) Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera – all in the top 100 prospects according to MLB Pipeline.

Should Chicago come calling once he is done moving his own All-Stars around, Rogers may be the perfect piece to target. Such a deal could also provide the perfect opportunity to further strengthen your farm system and address additional positional needs if you’re the Marlins.

Chicago Cubs: 10 pitchers to target at the trade deadline: #6 – Matthew Boyd

Another badly-needed southpaw the Cubs should consider adding to the rotation due to a resurgent year is Matthew Boyd. This is another pitcher currently enjoying the best season of his career. He has succeeded thus far to the tune of a 3.44 ERA and 3-6 record. Although those numbers are nothing to write home about, keep in mind that much like Kyle Gibson, his team is also below .500 due to a lackluster offensive production in Texas, equating to a negative run differential of -47.

Also like Gibson, it is important to note that he is not a rental as he has another year of team control with his third and final year of arbitration in 2022. Currently earning $6.5 million, that number will definitely go up due to the success he’s found this season, mostly by means of changing the delivery in his change-up, which has led to much more efficiency against right-handed batters, who’ve always been a major thorn in Boyd’s side.

Boyd is not a guy who you’re going to trade one of your All-Stars for by any means, but he should garner some attention from Hoyer nonetheless and hopefully Detroit, looking to continue rebuilding, will let him go for a couple mid-level prospects. A guy like Boyd pitching the way he is now after tweaking his mechanics would greatly help fortify the Cubs’ ever-lacking rotation.

Chicago Cubs: 10 pitchers to target at the trade deadline: #5 – Ryan Rolison

Moving along we will now discuss a few top 100 MLB prospects that fit the “re-tool rather than rebuild” format. Let’s get started with Colorado Rockies Triple-A southpaw Ryan Rolison.

In three years of pro ball, Rolison sports a career 11-10 mark with a 3.90 ERA. Currently with the Albuquerque Isotopes, he is 1-0 with a 4.38 in just three games started. The promise is there for the 24-year-old as he is expected to reach the big leagues possibly as soon as this year if all goes according to plan. (The odds jump higher if the Rockies wind up dumping German Marquez and Jon Gray. Speaking of the Rockies selling, they are also in complete sell mode. Even Trevor Story is to be had right now.

That leads you to believe that, once again, if you package the right players that fit Colorado’s needs, Rolison can be had. It just has to make sense. Colorado looking to sell doesn’t make lining up a deal any easier as they clearly aren’t looking for a Kris Bryant or Javier Baez trade chip. However, if Hoyer can make it work, Rolison could be a fine addition to the rotation should he continue to pan out. He is currently the #94 prospect in the top 100 and Colorado’s number two..

Even though he ranks second for Colorado, it is worth mentioning that that is because Colorado does not have a great farm system at this time. A #94 prospect is not super high on the list but it’s worth inquiring about and possibly taking a shot if the price is right for the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs: 10 pitchers to target at the trade deadline: #4 – Jose Berrios

Coming in at #4, Jose Berrios. Berrios is another one of those pitchers that can seriously help the rotation moving forward. He is currently earning $6.1M in his second year of arbitration and will have his final year of arbitration eligibility in 2022 before becoming a free agent after next season.

Berrios is one of the pitchers one this list that is more available to those buying. However, if Jed Hoyer can put the proper package, it can help both Chicago and Minnesota moving forward. The Cubs just have so many great players available via trade that it’s hard to imagine that if a fire sale is coming, they won’t at least try to secure a big league arm along with prospects in exchange for their stars.

Berrios is currently sitting on a 7-4 record with a 3.69 ERA. His FIP is a touch lower at 3.64, but not enough to make a substantive difference. The right-hander ranks in the 83rd percentile in terms of chase rate, which tells you how good his stuff can be. He also owns a 1.7 WAR at this point in the season.

Berrios is one of those guys I would love for Hoyer to target after completing the necessary fire sale. With more funds available the more we fly under the luxury tax threshold, it would be great to see a sign of “No, seriously. This is a re-tool. Not a complete rebuild” Grabbing a guy like Berrios who has been made available would be a perfect way to make that point.

Chicago Cubs: 10 pitchers to target at the trade deadline: #3 – Hunter Greene

Hunter Greene was the number two overall pick in the 2017 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. He has a four-pitch mix of a fastball, cutter, slider and changeup but primarily his fastball is ridiculous. He touched 104 MPH in his Triple-A debut. As a starting pitcher. At 21 years old.

I am fully aware the cost it would take to get him. However, the Cubs do have quite a few pending free agents they would be able to package for a top prospect to a team looking to contend this year. Greene fits the mold as a pitcher with very high upside and somebody I personally would be all-in on.

MLB Pipeline’s #54 overall prospect and #2 in the Reds organization, Greene’s arrival to the big leagues right now is expected in 2022. Exactly when the Cubs would need him. He is, without a doubt, a player that may not be available at the deadline, but if Hoyer comes calling offering up certain stars and a prospect or two in a package, any team would be listening no matter how high the potential is.

The reality is the Chicago Cubs just have so much available via trade this year that there are many ways to make several moves such as these work, while saving salary in the process.

Chicago Cubs: 10 pitchers to target at the trade deadline: #1 – Sonny Gray

If the Cubs are looking at all to spend up with available salary after trading certain players should it come to fruition, a nice piece to help bolster the starting rotation would be Cincinnati’s Sonny Gray. Gray currently has a 3.65 ERA in 66 innings pitched this season, which is actually slightly above his career 3.54 ERA. He is 77-68 for his career with a 21.9 WAR, earning All-Star honors and top 10 in Cy Young voting twice in 2015 and 2019, respectively.

Gray will not reach free agency until 2024, set to earn $10,200,000 in 2022 and has a $12,000,000 club option for 2023. Not a bad price to pay for a pitcher whose career ERA is better than league average. He currently boasts a 29.7 strikeout percentage in 2021, to go along with a 30.6 percent mark in 2020 and 29 percent on the nose in 2019.

The Cubs can definitely use a pitcher of Gray’s caliber. Determining the Cubs’ aggressiveness to go after certain players as buyers will all depend on how much they sell off first. Hopefully, much like what would be a Jose Berrios situation, I could see a route Hoyer takes where he sells off the guys he’s looking to trade for younger talent, then come back and surprise us nicely and buy what he can with the salary saved.