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Chicago Cubs: One trade to make and one trade to avoid
For a team to be set up for success, it must have a strong farm system behind it. We saw what happened in 2016. Theo Epstein got the Chicago Cubs their first ring in 108 years. That’s certainly day in my life that I will never forget. Justifiably, it left us with little to no prospect depth moving forward. Post-World Series, we lost key prospects such as Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease – all of whom have had success at the big league level who could be helping out immensely right now. Hindsight is 20/20 and let’s never forget; parades are cooler than prospects.
As we sit here in 2021, in order to re-tool and right the ship with a mass exodus looming at year’s end, we must strengthen the farm. It is a golden opportunity to do so. It’s not often that a team has three stars such as Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo all reaching free agency simultaneously . The haul you could get for trading at least Baez or Bryant in packages coupled with other Cubs prospects or depth pieces in a trade is fascinating to think about.
It’s so easy as fans for us to say “No, not Baez, please.” “No, not KB!” “Not Rizzo!!” The fact is, if Tom Ricketts wants to open the checkbook to extend all three of these guys, there is two important things to keep in mind.
For one, realistically, this team is currently a long ways off from being on pace for another World Series. The core we have isn’t leading us anywhere at this point in time. A lot of that is due to starting pitching, whose struggles is now starting to cause wear and tear on a bullpen that has been the Cubs’ greatest strength for much of the year. It’s also the lack of consistency from the offense. That falls on guys like Rizzo, Baez and Bryant. I hate having to speak uncomplimentary of any Cub, ever, but it’s painful to admit: I would not be willing to pay anybody $200 million to bat .230-.240 and lead the league in strikeouts either. That’s just my opinion when I put my heart aside.
For two, if you don’t trade at least Baez and Bryant, or Bryant and Kimbrel in separate trade packages as mentioned above, you’re really ruining an absolutely amazing chance to strengthen your farm system and have team-friendly contracts for guys who will become your new core.
Trading at least two of your top guys now that are likely to walk at the end of the year anyway will open up many financial windows in the offseason as well. At that point; if Ricketts truly cares about the Cubs winning, with all the money that would come off the books this year, he simply will have no excuse to not pay for the top free agents available this winter. Lord knows, there’s plenty to choose from.
For reference, let’s quickly glance at the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are in the bottom two in terms of market value teams in baseball. Regardless, they find themselves consistently battling for first place in their division with a recent World Series appearance in 2020 and also boast the top farm system in baseball with five prospects in the top 100. How is this possible? Because they made the right moves for the betterment of the team moving forward at the right time and now It’s all coming to fruition. Exactly what the Chicago Cubs need to do in this critical time.
Let’s now analyze one key trade the Cubs should make and one trade they should avoid.
Chicago Cubs: 1 trade to make: Kris Bryant
Bryant departing from the Cubs will be a melancholy day across the North Side of Chicago. Sadly, reality has set in that the former Rookie of the Year, NL MVP and four-time All-Star is on his way out.
This is a guy that, when he is on, is good for 30+ HR and 100+ RBI. The problem with that, not to take away from Bryant, but with so much emphasis on advanced analytics, sabermetrics and everything being about launch angle and exit velocity these days, a lot of players are becoming capable of this feat in today’s game. Take 2019 before the COVID-shortened 2020 season, a whopping 58 players across MLB hit at least 30 long balls, with another 15 breaking 40 and three surpassing 50.
One hundred runs batted in is still above average in baseball, don’t get me wrong. It takes a keen eye at the plate to be able to deliver for your team in a big moment with runners on. Bryant has that “it” factor about him at the plate and has also certainly proven his versatility in the field this year. He has had countless moments throughout his big league career where he has come up clutch. Even though Bryant is one of my favorites, I must implore the Chicago faithful to not be blinded by the love we have for KB.
A return haul for Bryant coupled with other pieces would be a trade package that would be very enticing for a team to let go of one of their very top prospects, at least. One report indicates that KB alone may not be enough for a top three prospect return, however spicing it up by adding an arm such as cost effective Dillon Maples may do the trick.
These are the types of moves that can flip over a team rather quickly. Knowing Bryant is on his way out after this season anyway, it makes zero sense not to trade him now and get what you can before you regret not doing so when he’s gone. That’s just the unfortunate reality at this point. If I know a guy is on his way out and there’s a chance for me to secure a highly-ranked prospect that can make almost an immediate impact, I am all for it.
In fact, looking at the swirling rumors that Kimbrel is available as well, why not just stack up as much talent as possible? KB, Kimbrel, Baez. None of these guys can help us in two years when they aren’t here anymore. However, these young cost effective stars of tomorrow can.
Chicago Cubs: 1 trade to avoid: Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras lands at number one on my list of guys I want to build around. The fiery, ever-passionate Venezuelan spark plug is arguably the best backstop the Cubs have had since Gabby Hartnett in the 1920s and 1930s.
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Across 19 years with the Cubs, Hartnett racked up a 55 WAR. Contreras, in his sixth season with the Cubs, is at 15.5 WAR and is on pace to be around 17.5 after this year is over. Should Contreras stay on that pace for another 13 years, you see how close the numbers in that category become compared to Hartnett. In fact, Contreras is on pace to surpass Hartnett in WAR should he stick around that long and remain healthy.
Contreras also sits at 88 career home runs, on pace to blow past the 231 career home runs Hartnett hit and set as a record with the Chicago Cubs as a catcher over those 19 seasons. Furthermore, with just 40 more home runs, Contreras will move into second all-time as a Cubs backstop, surpassing Jody Davis’ 121 homers, which he could do as soon as next year.
It simply is just not every day you have an All-Star caliber catcher on your team. The Cubs haven’t had one since 2008 with Geovany Soto. Even more remarkable, besides Soto in 2008, Contreras is the only other Cubs catcher in the last 84 years to be named an All-Star since Gabby Hartnett in 1937. He’s done it twice in 2018 and 2019.
As noted, Contreras is on pace for about 17.5 career WAR after this year. Keep in mind the fact he could only play in 57 games in 2020 due to a COVID shortened season. His WAR total last year was 1.1 for what was one-third of a normal length season. Averaging that out for the course of a full year he would have obtained or at least been on pace for 3.3 assuming he was healthy and played as many games as normal.
Not a far stretch considering in 2017 he had 3.9, 2018 he had 3.1 and in 2019 had 3.2. Simply put, though a lot can happen between years six and 19, Contreras is currently on pace to surpass Hartnett in terms of WAR and all-time home runs by a Cubs catcher.
Next. 5 wild trade ideas from the mind of Jim Bowden. dark
I love nothing more than to see a player like Willson fire his team up. The laser-cannon for an arm makes runners never safe at first, second or third base. In 2022, Contreras will enter his third and final year of arbitration and will be set to become a free agent after the season wraps up. Lock him up and throw away the key.