Cubs: Javier Baez is projected for absolutely insane numbers this year

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Chicago Cubs fans have always had a healthy (maybe unhealthy to spouses) obsession with numbers and stats, and whether you’re old school or new school matters little. While the numbers you’re using and comparing to arrive at a hypothesis or conclusion may have changed in the last 20 years, baseball is currently as much numbers-driven as it’s always been. Perhaps more.

In that light, there are fewer things more exciting and ridiculous in the same moment as trying to extrapolate and project statistics for an entire season based on either a torrid or frigid April. People just love tweeting and talking about things like, “this guy is projected to have 784 home runs for an entire season” or “so and so is on pace to break so and so’s record” after just two games.

Well, we all know most of those things never come to pass, and in fact, most never even continue in any kind of linear way. Notice I said “most.”

Stay with me here.

If I showed you the following seasonal statistics, you’d be absolutely flabbergasted.

591 AB
97 R
138 H
16 2B
49 HR
138 RBI
41 SB
8 BB
280 K
4.9 fWAR
.233/.273/.503 slash line

Enter Ednel Javier Baez.

Cubs: Javier Baez is an anomaly in baseball, a unicorn if you will

He does things that infuriate every single fan and causes more “why would he keep doing that?” moments than anyone in recent memory. And yet, he’s also one of the most exciting and intuitive players you’ll ever see, making plays most of us mere mortals never dreamt of making in the first place. He has enormous talent, enormous power, enormous charisma. Problem is, people still haven’t figured out who Javy Baez is as a player.

While the strikeout projections have come down substantially in the last couple games (including his first day off yesterday that lowered all the numbers), these numbers aren’t actually that unbelievable for Baez. And people most definitely have their opinions about a guy who strikes out 300 times in a season; just check Twitter.

Thing is, wouldn’t you take those numbers at the end of the season for Baez? Sure, all Cubs fans would want fewer strikeouts and more balls in play, but sometimes, that’s just not who El Mago is. An elite Gold Glove defender, you can debate whether or not his particular set of skills will wane (they most certainly will) over time and how maybe he was a fool for not taking a reported contract extension, but you can’t argue the fact that right now, Baez is one of the best shortstops in the game.

Warts and all. Yes, even swinging at what seems like a million low and out-of-the-zone sliders.

(Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images) /

Cubs: Javier Baez is on pace for a ridiculous set of numbers

Who else amongst shortstops can make the plays he does, pop balls to right-center the way he can, and electrify the basepaths on both ends the way our favorite shortstop can? It’s a pretty short list. Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts? Maybe you could extend to guys like Bo Bichette or crosstown rival Tim Anderson, but I don’t think they have that same level of pop. Either way, Baez is on a short list and amongst the best all-around baseball players in the world right now.

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While fans may have been disappointed in his performance in the bizarro-world 2020 season, what Baez is currently doing in a slightly more normalized season in 2021 could end up being one of the most bizarro statistical seasons ever. Sure, most projections in April aren’t going to pan out over 162 games, but can anyone say that what Baez is doing right now isn’t believable or sustainable over the course of the season?

As it stands today, his 15.8 barrel % and 91.3 mph average exit velocity would be the highest of his career over the course of a whole season, as would the 44.9% strikeout percentage, but my guess is that percentage will level off somewhere around 30-35% as Baez goes through one of his signature hot streaks (which he could be entering right now, quite honestly). He’s certainly not going to walk very much, so the BB% could certainly stay low as the home runs stay high.

If I were a betting man, I’d wager that Baez ends up trading some of those projected home runs for doubles over the course of the summer and ends up between 30-40 of each. The daring he’s shown on the bases so far has been awesome, but it’s hard to see him continuing to put his hands and legs in jeopardy throughout the season in regards to stolen bases; he’ll probably end up with about 20.

Next. Offensive explosion doesn't mean offense is fixed. dark

Of course, lastly, Baez will continue his trademark elite defense along with whatever he ends up doing at the plate, continuing to make the Cubs decision to extend or trade Baez harder and harder as summer looms.

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Cubs: Javier Baez is an anomaly in baseball, a unicorn if you will

Cubs: Javier Baez is on pace for a ridiculous set of numbers

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