Cubs Opening Day: Projecting the starting lineup for Thursday’s game

The offensive woes of the Cubs in recent years have been well documented. The Opening Day lineup will look slightly different, but the faces we are accustomed to seeing everyday will be counted on to do the heavy lifting this season.

The Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks to the mound in Thursday’s opener against the Pirates at Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh announced on Tuesday that right-hander Chad Kuhl gets their Opening Day nod. In three games against the Cubs, Kuhl holds a 1-0 record with a 2.92 ERA and 1.297 WHIP across 12 1/3 innings pitched.

Here’s a look at a potential lineup manager David Ross will use on Thursday:

• Ian Happ-CF
• Kris Bryant-3B
• Anthony Rizzo-1B
• Willson Contreras-C
• Joc Pederson-LF
• Javier Baez-SS
• David Bote-2B
• Jason Heyward-RF
• Kyle Hendricks-P

The more I look at this lineup, the more optimistic I am about the Cubs this season. This team is still loaded with potential talent, but issues have been whether or not they can execute consistently. They’ve always been streaky, and even in recent years of winning it’s been attributed to being carried by their pitching staff. Now the roles will be reversed this season, and the offense needs to step up.

Cubs Opening Day: The offense has to improve this season

In 2020, the Cubs offense was ranked as the fourth-worst in team batting average (.220) and seventh-worst in slugging percentage (.387). The team was ranked 20th in runs scored, but that number is misleading given how often they scored in bunches throughout the season. The Cubs scored three runs or fewer in 26 games while getting shutout four times last summer. Compare that to the Dodgers who scored three runs or fewer 14 times and were shutout in zero games.

It’s unlikely the Cubs ditch their slug-first approach, but there needs to be small-ball tactics used throughout the season. There also needs to be turnarounds from the big-names in this lineup who are set to hit the free-agent market.

The good news is everyone, other than Happ and Heyward, had miserable offensive seasons in 2020. Yet the Cubs still managed to win a weak NL Central. If the likes of Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Contreras can get back to their All-Star ways, the Cubs will once again be a World Series contender.

No.4 Willson Contreras-C

Having appeared in all but three games last summer Willson Contreras slashed career lows with a line of .243/.356/.407 along with seven home runs and 26 RBI in 57 games. When he’s locked in Contreras is arguably the league’s best catcher in the league on both sides of the ball. It’s been a solid spring camp for Contreras (.317/.440/.756), and the Cubs will be counting on their catcher to drive in plenty of runs this season. Contreras has a career batting average of .280 with runners in scoring position.

No.5 Joc Pederson-LF

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I’ll admit I was a bit skeptical when the Cubs brought in Joc Pederson to replace Kyle Schwarber in left field. Being a fan, I would have rather gone with Schwarber as the two are similar in their offensive approach. From what we’ve seen so far this spring, I will gladly take back my previous thoughts. Pederson has arguably been the hottest hitter in spring training, launching eight home runs with 20 RBI to go with a .378/.431/1.000 slash line. I’m sure the Cubs expected Pederson to perform as well as he has so far, but he has established himself as an X-factor in the middle of this lineup.

No.6 Javier Baez-SS

Having Javier Baez batting sixth in the order hopefully means everyone else above him is performing well. If Baez is productive and still in this spot, that shows how deep this lineup can be. Whether it was a lack of in-game video, no fans, or any other factors in the shortened season, Baez was one of the many Cubs who took a step back in 2020.

His line of .203/.238/.360 with eight home runs and 24 RBI in 59 games was far from his previous two All-Star seasons in 2018-2019. Baez has struggled this spring (.184/.231/.437), but there have been occasions where he’s used the whole field as a hitter rather than an all or nothing approach. That’s when Baez has been as his best, and the Cubs will need more of it in 2021.

No.7 David Bote-2B

Maybe service time manipulation was a factor, but David Bote won job at second base after a great spring camp as well. Bote slashed .311/.367/.622 with three home runs and eight RBI in 19 games. This will be the first time in his career where Bote gets the opportunity to keep the starting job to begin a full 162-game season. If he struggles, look for Eric Sogard to take his spot, or Nico Hoerner to be called up from the alternate site.

No.8 Jason Heyward-RF

At this point in his career, the Cubs know what they’re going to get from Jason Heyward. Defensively, he’s one of the league’s best, but he hasn’t lived up to his offensive potential. Heyward’s spring numbers (.263/.333/.395) are not far off from his career averages. It’s asking a lot for Heyward to bat .300 with 30 home runs, but it’s possible he can still provide some offense towards the bottom of the order.

Last season Heyward had a batting average of .290 with three home runs and 19 RBI in 69 at-bats with runners on base. If he struggles against left-handed pitching, look for the newly acquired Jake Marisnick to take his spot. Marisnick slashed .409/.435/1.000 with four home runs and eight RBI in 22 at-bats this spring.

In 28 games this spring, the Cubs offense ranked top-10 in runs (147-6th), batting average (.263-6th), and on-base plus slugging percentage (.830-3rd).

We’ll see if they can carry that productivity into the regular season, but thats the production this team needs to contend in 2021.