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Cubs: Ranking the top candidates to lead the team in home runs
This Cubs roster has maybe a half-dozen guys capable of popping 20+ homers.
As Pat Hughes says, “this lineup has a lot of thunder in it.” Despite Chicago’s inconsistency in terms of run production, this Cubs team has plenty of power. Last season’s unusual 60-game season did not allow for any of these guys to hit their normal home run totals. This year they can play a normal season again and let the ball fly over 162 games.
In 2019 six different Cubs hit the 20+ home run mark, with two hitting 30+. Overall the Cubs ranked sixth in home runs in baseball that year. Last season three guys hit double digits with the leader being Ian Happ (12). This was a season in which Kris Bryant was struggling with more injuries and Javier Baez had a really down year. If these two bounce back, then they can, and likely will be, among the group of players who can lead the team in home runs.
Who will be the prime candidates to lead the team in home runs and who looks to be number one on the list? Let’s look at them and see where they are projected in 2021. We will look at projections including: ZiPS, Steamer, and THE BAT. Keep in mind these are not the only projections out there, but three solid ones.
Cubs: Projected for between 15-26 home runs, but capable of more
Willson Contreras:
The slugging catcher has hit some mammoth shots in his five-year MLB stint. His career-high is 24 (2019) and has twice eclipsed the 20 home run mark. Outside his weird power outage in 2018, he has consistently been able to slug the ball out of the ballpark when he is locked in.
When he is hot, he can hit home runs in bunches. One of the underrated parts of Willy’s game is his ability to drive the ball the other way and show power to all parts of the field. Last season he was third in average exit velocity among catchers.
ZiPS has him at 18 home runs, Steamer at 17 and THE BAT at 16. If he plays a full season in 2021 then I would take the over on these projections. It is worth noting his career-high in homers was hit in a season in which he played only 105 games.
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Kris Bryant:
Last season could have hurt his projections for 2021. His career-high mark of 39 bombs was accomplished during his MVP season in 2016. Since then he has eclipsed the 30-home run mark once in 2019 (31). If healthy it is realistic to put him in the high-20s/low 30s projections of home runs. it is not like he is far removed from hitting over 30 home runs. Right now health concerns are warranted due to recent past issues battling injury.
ZiPS have him at 24 home runs, Steamer at 26 and THE BAT at 26. Seems reasonable now. Seeing what kind of start he gets off to in the first month or so and if he is fully healthy can give a better idea of what kind of home run totals he can put up.
Ian Happ:
The team’s top offensive producer is looking to play 130+ games for the first time since 2018. Happ slugged 12 home runs in 57 games last year (plus one in the postseason) and 11 when he returned from the minors and played in 58 games in 2019. In his 2017 rookie season he hit 24 in 115 games.
Like others, Happ has the ability to spray home runs to all fields. Over a full season he is absolutely capable of hitting 20 or more, and if his last two seasons are any indicator he can keep building on his power numbers.
ZiPS has him at 27 home runs, Steamer at 27 and THE BAT at 23. Pretty consistent projections. Do not rule out Happ being able to reach the 30 mark. If he is batting leadoff and the regular centerfielder he will get plenty of at bats.
Cubs: These are the projected big boppers in the lineup
Joc Pederson:
Right now the home run projections mostly range between low and high-20s for Pederson. It could depend on just how much playing time he gets. Right now he is crushing it in the Cactus League and looks to be an everyday-type player. Last season despite the rough numbers in the regular season, Pederson was in the top 4% in the league in exit velocity. In 2019 he eclipsed the 30 home run mark for the first time in his career (36).
ZiPS has him at 21 home runs, Steamer at 29 and THE BAT at 28. Most projections have him closer to 30 home runs outside of ZiPS, who has him lower in around the same number of games (he is projected around 124-130 games by each of these outlets). Say he plays about 130 games, there is good reason to believe he can hit at least 25.
He likely will not lead the team in home runs since other power hitters will get more at bats, but who knows, if he continues to swing like he has been this spring he can put up some big numbers this year.
Anthony Rizzo:
Anyone who follows the Cubs pretty much knows what Rizzo is going to give offensively in a normal season. His slash and home run production every year is incredibly consistent. From 2014-2017 he hit 32 home runs in three of those four seasons with him hitting 31 in 2015. Despite a small power drop in 2018 (25 home runs) he hit 27 in 146 games in 2019. Long story short, he is for the most part expected to produce home run power as normal in 2021. Rizzo is one of, if not the last person to worry about production by the time the season is a wrap.
ZiPS has him at 24 home runs, Steamer at 30 and THE BAT at 27. I would take the over on 24 and say 30 seems like the reasonable mark. Rizzo has a great power stroke, which is honestly capable of 40+ home run power, but he will sacrifice power for contact in many instances to be a more balanced hitter.
Javier Baez:
It is reasonable to think Baez could be the best candidate to lead the team in home runs. Assuming he rebounds from his 2020 struggles and returns to normal, he has easily 30+ home run power. He hit 34 in 2018 and 29 in 2019 where he missed 22 games. His hard hit% those two seasons ranged between 76-81 percentile. His opposite-field power is as good as it gets, allowing him to drive pitches on the outside corner. Beaz should get the benefit of the doubt for 2021 considering 2020 was an odd year and he was not the only All Star caliber player to struggle mightily.
ZiPS pegs him at 29 home runs, Steamer at 30 and THE BAT at 30. In terms of looking at what numbers these three projections spit out, Baez is the favorite to hit the most home runs in 2021. It does make sense. He is a free swinger with great power who plays every day. Even with the holes in his swing when he barrels the ball he can hit them high and far.
To look at the averages of these projections, here are the “over/under” home run totals we can come up with for each of these players:
- Willson Contreras: 17
- Kris Bryant: 25
- Ian Happ: 26
- Joc Pederson: 26
- Anthony Rizzo: 27
- Javier Baez: 30
dark. Next. Rizzo and Bryant will need to produce runs
All of these guys are capable is hitting over these marks, but it does not necessarily mean they will. Struggles, injury, are both factors. Not to mention the new makeup of the baseball that can kill some of the power. How much that will play in the outcome of home run production remains to be seen.