Chicago Cubs: Five reasons the team parted ways with Kyle Schwarber
The writing was on the wall when it came to the Cubs dumping Kyle Schwarber.
Let’s start off by saying this: Kyle Schwarber should still be a member of the Chicago Cubs. If it weren’t for COVID – which led to a shortened season and a biblical loss of revenue – and the departure of Theo Epstein, it’s highly doubtful we’d be having this discussion right now.
For all his shortcomings, Schwarber was a winner. He was part of three NL Central championships, two Wild Card teams and only one team that missed the postseason – coincidentally in a year Schwarber put up MVP-type numbers in the second half.
Unfortunately, all of those above issues came to pass and created the imperfect storm for Schwarber and the Cubs. Now, Chicago will have to live with the fact that they non-tendered a homegrown slugger who could go on to put up 40 home runs a year for the next decade. I kinda hope he does just that, quite honestly.
That being said, Schwarber had his warts and while I wouldn’t have jettisoned him to the scrap heap to save his eight million dollars, I can acknowledge that there were some issues for the big lefty. Here are five that no doubt influenced the Cubs decision.
Chicago Cubs: That’s one way to beat the shift
If this were the 1920s, 1960s or even the 1990s, Schwarber would be a perennial All-Star, and his slash line would be something like .270/.370/.550. Alas, it’s 2020 and Schwarber was born in the wrong era.
Any ball he hits in the hole is an out. Any ball he rips up the middle is often an out. Any ball he hits the other way in the hole is often an out. Basically, the only ways Kyle Schwarber gets a hit is when he hits it so hard that fielders have to pull a Roger Dorn or if he hits it over everyone’s head.
Many fairweather and casual fans will often say “just take it the other way” in reference to beating the shift. And, while that may work out just fine in MLB The Show or on their Sunday slowpitch team, it’s easier said than done in the Major Leagues. Schwarber has attempted to beat the shift with bunts, letting the ball travel farther and ripping it the other way, and increasing launch angle at times. Problem is, it’s hard for a tiger to change his stripes.
Growing up, my dad always told me if you hit the ball hard on a line, good things will happen. Most MLB hitters and coaches probably would have said the same thing before this century. This past fall, Schwarber ranked 15th in average exit velocity in all of baseball while hitting a measly .188. Unfortunately, with statistical models and graphs for everything, MLB scouts know exactly where to deploy a defense for maximum efficiency. It’s just really hard for a guy like Schwarber to beat the shift when everything is stacked against him.
Chicago Cubs: Sometimes you just need to slap one the other way…
This is something I’ve long railed on the Cubs about, because they never really gave Schwarber a fighting chance. Many have pointed to the fact that Schwarber has struggled against lefties his entire career as a way to show that he can only really be a strong side platoon guy.
The problem is, if you never give someone chance to do something, make mistakes, learn from mistakes, and put said knowledge into practice, you’re really just feeding into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
That’s what has happened with Schwarber and left-handed pitchers. Because he struggled mightily against southpaws in his first couple season or two, everyone just wrote him off as another lefty who couldn’t hit lefties.
Nevermind the fact that the numbers meant nothing because they were so few and far between. Nevermind the fact that most of Schwarber’s opportunities were against an elite left-hander coming out of the pen to get just him out. Nevermind the fact that Joe Maddon would sit Schwarber in the middle of a hot streak or the day after he hit a bomb because a lefty was pitching.
Schwarber has had inconsistent results against lefties in his career for sure, but he’s only had 435 career plate appearances against them. Go check out Anthony Rizzo‘s early career numbers against lefties and you’ll see why I’m discussing this. Funny thing is, it was after about 400 career at bats against southpaws that Rizzo started putting it together in a productive way.
But, numbers are still numbers, and Schwarber has yet to produce meaningfully or consistently against lefties- and it’s definitely a reason in letting him go.
Chicago Cubs: How do you rate the big guy’s defense?
This is where Schwarber fans and those who don’t think he’s all that good will really start deviating big time.
Those who think Schwarber is a passable or average defender will discuss his work ethic, defensive improvement, superior arm strength, and the lack of a burner centerfielder as reasons to keep running the left fielder out there.
Those who think he’s only a DH will cite his few but painful-to-watch gaffes, bad route running, average (they’ll claim slower than average) speed, and the fact that he’s only getting less athletic as he gets older.
One thing is for certain: Schwarber is not going to win any Gold Gloves out in left field. However, that doesn’t mean he’s unusable out there. In fact, his Fangraphs UZR/150 is positive 5.3 runs for his career. What does this mean? Well, it means he’s not as bad as it seems or as bad as some people make it out to be.
Regardless, the optics are that Schwarber doesn’t do enough defensively to offset his inconsistent efforts at the plate; or inversely, he doesn’t do enough at the plate to offset his lack of impact in the field.
Chicago Cubs: Way too much inconsistency for his potential
Any optimistic fan who saw Schwarber in the second half of 2019 expected that would be the guy we would see going forward. That anyone would put much stock in a totally fubar 2020 season and year is a little strange, but it is hard to shake how much of a precipitous drop occurred this fall.
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Entering play September 4, Schwarber was slashing .238/.340/.516 with 10 bombs and 21 RBI through 36 games. That’s a 45-home run and 95-RBI pace for an entire season, basically in line with what he had done in 2019. Then he went 7-for-69 the rest of the way, thus earning him a ticket out of town.
While it’s crazy to put a lot of faith in any numbers from 2020, the basic trend and theme was all too familiar for Schwarber- way too much inconsistency with the bat. There are times where he looks like he can carry the offense and be the Ruthian bat we all expect him to be. Then, there are times were all those people who want to compare him to Rob Deer look pretty… well… dead on and prescient.
He was terrible in 2017 in the leadoff spot before being demoted and then was great when he came back from the minors. He was really good in the first half in 2018 and then not so good and a little hurt in the second half. He was terrible (although murdering balls) in the first half of 2019 and then phenomenal in the second half. Back to good then bad in 2020.
The Jekyll and Hyde thing just wasn’t working for him or the Cubs and it’s hard to argue.
Chicago Cubs: When you’re too passive, umps take advantage
There are a few hitters in the game whose eyes are just too good for the umpires. Joey Votto is one. Ben Zobrist was one. Schwarber and Rizzo on the Cubs are probably on that list as well.
You see it time and time again with these guys (who all bat left-handed, although Zo also hit from the right side as well) taking pitches off the outside part of the plate. Whether it’s a soft spot, weak spot, or dead spot for umpires I have no idea, but sometimes guys with really good eyes often end up getting the shaft for being too passive and too discerning.
Then again, with two strikes, there are times you have to guard against and spoil the pitch an inch or two outside rather than watch it and subsequently the umpire ringing you up erroneously.
Maybe Schwarber would do better with robot umps, but for now, he has to deal with the good old human kind. Meaning, he’s got to be less passive and more aggressive. While I’m not saying he needs to go up there hacking like Javier Baez, there are times where he has been successful ambushing first pitch fastballs the other way or spraying line drives the other way with one or two strikes. Schwarber has so much power than even a half swing has the capacity to leave the park.
That being said, his passiveness led to prolonged slumps and pitchers taking advantage with big strike zones and low swing percentages at times, something the Cubs obviously couldn’t stomach any longer.
While I don’t personally think these five issues would have led to me non-tendering a guy who was really, really good the last time baseball had a full season, the team is making moves and Schwarber’s head was the first to fall under the guillotine.