Chicago Cubs Rumors: A look at the current outfield free agent market
One way or another, the Chicago Cubs need to find more outfield depth.
It’s no secret, the Chicago Cubs need help in the outfield. Following last week’s non-tenders of Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora, the only everyday outfielders on the 40-man roster are Ian Happ and Jason Heyward.
A big reason why Jed Hoyer and the Cubs have yet to make any additions thus far is because they are still figuring out their budget for the 2021 season. An unknown start date, total number of games, fans (real human beings) in attendance, and a designated hitter in the National League are a few of the factors slowing down the MLB offseason, which is traditionally slow to begin with.
There’s still plenty of time to trade big-name players like Kris Bryant or Willson Contreras, but it’s unlikely the Cubs will receive any offers they feel meet their demands. Hence why the team decided to let Schwarber and Almora walk away for nothing in return. Even with poor statistical seasons, an offseason market in the past would’ve likely had teams offer some type of compensation and take their chances by acquiring low-risk high-reward players in Schwarber and Almora for 2021.
The same could be said if the Cubs tendered contracts to their two former outfielders, taking a gamble on bounce back seasons. Personally, I would have rather taken a shot on paying Schwarber, and moving him at the deadline if the season didn’t look promising. Instead, the team will save about ~$10 million total by cutting Schwarber and Almora loose.
Normally that doesn’t seem like much money in terms of how lucrative some MLB contracts can be, but it can’t be stressed enough how different this offseason is. It raises the question of just how much Hoyer and the Cubs are willing to spend in the upcoming weeks.
Regardless, the Cubs better figure it out soon, because a few teams have already signed outfielders and there might not be many to choose from before too long.
Chicago Cubs: Adam Eaton, David Dahl signings give us something to work with
The big question regarding the Cubs and potential outfield replacements is how much the team is willing to spend. If I had to take my guess, I’d say not much.
This past week saw potential free agent targets agree to deals with other teams. Adam Eaton signed a one-year $8 million dollar contract with the White Sox, and David Dahl inked a one-year $3 million agreement with the Rangers.
Eaton is 31 years old and has a career slash line of .282/.360/.416 in nine MLB seasons. The outfielder battled injuries in 2020 and posted a career-low .226 batting average in 41 games. Now, he is far from a “face of the franchise”, but he’s the type of spark every winning team needs, and played a large role in Washington’s championship-run.
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Eaton World Series statistics: (7 games) .320 BA 2 HR 5 R 4 BB 1 SB .993 OPS
Dahl also struggled this past season, slashing .183/.222/.247 with zero home runs in 24 games. Still at 26 years old Dahl carries upside for a cheap price. In 2019, the young outfielder hit .302 with 16 home runs and was named to the NL All-Star Team as a member of the Rockies.
While both players would have been nice additions for a low cost, there wasn’t much talk linking either outfielder to the North Side. Eaton and Dahl will cash-in on a near identical salary from a season ago despite their recent struggles.
Eaton 2020 salary: $9.5 million+$1.5 million team buyout
Dahl 2020 salary: $2.475 million
Maybe it’s still too early to tell, but one has to think if these two players were paid based on the high-upside of their past, the same will go for other free-agent outfielders who are in the same situation. The one-year contract with a similar salary from last season will likely be a common theme for other players coming off poor 2020 campaigns, including a few ex-Cubs.
Regardless, at some point the Cubs need to bring in a player or two for some help in the outfield, or maybe they don’t believe so.
Chicago Cubs: Will they sign an affordable piece or move guys around?
Let’s just say Hoyer and the Cubs are so tight with their checkbooks this offseason, they decide not to sign an everyday outfielder. In what would go down as arguably the cheapest of decisions in the history of this franchise, the team can throw Bryant in left field, and slide either David Bote or Nico Hoerner at third base. The team could also put Hoerner somewhere in left or center field as we have seen a handful of times this past season.
Could this work? Possibly, but I really hope it doesn’t come down to any of those scenarios. I don’t see how the team would improve from a season ago simply by shifting players around, as opposed to bringing in some new faces. Otherwise the Cubs are better off bringing back Schwarber and Almora.
The Cubs don’t have to break the bank to improve their outfield because there are still some affordable options on the market.
Potential Outfield Free Agent Targets:
- Eddie Rosario (29) 2020 season: (57 games $7.75 million) .257 BA 13 HR 42 RBI .792 OPS 1.1 WAR
- Kevin Pillar (31) 2020 season: (54 games $4.25 million) .288 BA 6 HR 26 RBI .798 OPS 1.0 WAR
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (30) 2020 season: (55 games $11 million) .283 BA 7 HR 22 RBI .814 OPS 2.1 WAR
- Robbie Grossman (31) 2020 season: (51 games $3.725 million) .241 BA 8 HR 23 RBI .826 OPS 1.2 WAR
- Jurickson Profar (27) 2020 season: (56 games $5.7 million) .278 BA 7 HR 25 RBI .771 OPS 1.4 WAR
It should be noted this list doesn’t consist of every remaining free agent outfielder. Obviously there are some big names missing like George Springer, Michael Brantley and Marcell Ozuna. Don’t get me wrong I would love for the Cubs to sign any one of the three, but there are just no signs of that happening thus far.
Instead Hoyer and Co. will likely look to get the biggest bang for their limited bucks when it comes to finding an outfield replacement. If this is the route the Cubs are taking, I have expressed signing Kevin Pillar to a one-year ~$5 contract would be more than ideal. Adding a player with the versatility of Jurickson Profar might be even better in terms of getting their money’s worth.
The complete list of current free agents can be found here.
Aside from the three outfielders likely to be paid the most (Springer, Brantley, Ozuna), the list isn’t really impressive. The Cubs could go after a free agent outfielder towards the end of their career, (Shin-Soo Choo, Brett Gardner, Nick Markakis, Ryan Braun) but it might not be worth spending the money.
There’s different paths for the Cubs to choose from in finding their outfield replacements. When it comes to affordable free agents coming off solid 2020 seasons, it’s slim pickings. If Hoyer and the rest of the organization doesn’t believe anyone on the market isn’t worth spending the money on, maybe Joe Maddon’s experiments of Bryant in the outfield was a bit of foreshadowing.