Why the Cubs should just go ahead and trade everyone this offseason
If the Chicago Cubs are going to start trading guys, they might as well go all-in.
With the non-tendering of Kyle Schwarber, the departure of Jon Lester and the rumors that the Cubs are very open and willing to listen to offers for Willson Contreras, it’s clear the Chicago Cubs we’ve known and loved through this window of contention are dead and gone. What happens going forward is anyone’s guess (except maybe Jed Hoyer), and it’s still possible that with some patches and changes a decent ball club will emerge.
That being said, the moves so far this offseason seem not so much about getting better, but about saving money. Heck, the moves the last two years have seemed to be more about money than trying to win another World Series. I understand that you don’t buy a team to lose money, but putting a winner on the field in a town that is starving for consistent winners sounds like a pretty tried and true recipe for making some serious dough.
Granted, the pandemic has and will have a huge role in the fiscal and personnel decisions teams make this year and going forward, but the way things are going, do you really see the Cubs going out and spending money on anyone? Their biggest acquisitions the last couple years were Daniel Descalso and Steven Souza Jr. and that was before ‘biblical; losses due to COVID-19.
If the Chicago Cubs are starting to sell pieces off and looking to reload, my advice is to stop trying to do it piecemeal and stop with the death by a thousand cuts the fans are currently experiencing. If ownership only cares about the bottom line and not about winning, let’s just tear the whole thing down. Read on to see how the team should do it and who is likely to go at some point.
Chicago Cubs: What will happen with Bryant’s last year of team control?
If anyone was going to be non-tendered, I figured it would be the guy making 20 million in his last year of arbitration who hasn’t put together a full season in quite some time. Despite his potential to be one of the best players in the game, we just haven’t seen that reality from Kris Bryant in a very long time.
Can anyone even be sure if we’ll ever see that guy again? Between issues with his wrist. elbow, knee, finger, and oblique, it’s hard to know if the slugger will ever be the guy from 2016 let alone the guy from 2019.
With all the talk about payroll and saving money, my guess is still that they move Bryant at some point this year, saving either his full salary or at least a pro-rated portion. Perhaps they’re looking for a possible hot start where they can flip him for prospects and save boatloads of money, but if they’re unloading guys, this would be my first bet.
The problem, of course, was alluded to earlier- the Cubs would have to hope for him to rebuild some credibility and confidence amongst other teams so that they’ll part with prospects in return for Bryant. Look for this attempt early to midseason if it doesn’t happen this winter still.
Chicago Cubs: Catcher is certainly a position of strength
Between Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini, the Cubs have the best catching tandem in the league. Add in a top prospect in Miguel Amaya who may have been close to ready this year given another full year in the minors last year, and they’re basically loaded at one of the toughest positions in the game.
With two years left of control over Contreras, the Cubs are also in a position of strength when dealing with other clubs because of his price tag and control. An All-Star catcher in his prime who is dynamite with the bat and much improved with the glove is worth his weight in gold. If the Cubs are going to keep doing this tear down by unloading players with a year of control left, they might as well go all in and include Contreras to the pot.
There have already been sizable rumors about the Cubs willingness to part with their Venezuelan-born catcher, and they have a starting-caliber catcher already paired with him who switch-hits and personally handles Yu Darvish anyhow. Not that I want to see any of these guys be jettisoned, but Contreras has to have the most trade value if their dealing isn’t done this offseason.
Chicago Cubs: Say it ain’t so, Javy
This one would sting. This one would really smart. No, this one would be a reckoning. Should the Chicago Cubs go full-bore on cleaning house, losing Javier Baez would hurt a ton. A fan favorite and defensive whiz, anything Baez does with the bat is basically gravy for a winning club. The guy sells jerseys, tickets, brings excitement to the club, and is a pretty special player outside of all that.
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While Baez has had his issues remaining consistent at the plate and not swinging at everything, his defensive prowess and “it” factor make him a marketable commodity in a deal with any contender. If the Cubs are going to get rid of their other core guys, there will be a huge market for a relatively inexpensive Gold-Glove shortstop who can go on an offensive tear at any given moment.
The Cubs also do have a guy who can play shortstop waiting in the wings. True, Nico Hoerner would look a lot nicer as a keystone partner to pair with Baez, but Hoerner is cheaper and younger at this point, key factors in any rebuild or whatever the Cubs front office might call this.
If Contreras or Bryant go, don’t be surprised if someone makes a play for Baez and he goes poof.
Chicago Cubs: These four may all be expendable
If this exodus becomes a reality for players in the last year of their contracts, the once unthinkable may come to pass. Anthony Rizzo, the heart and soul of this franchise and the unspoken captain through this window of convention, may very well be on his way out this season if guys start getting unloaded.
As a Gold and Platinum Glove-winning fielder at first and one of the most consistently good offensive performers in baseball over the past seven years (we’ll forgive him the pandemic season as we will many others), Rizzo would have many suitors from around baseball.
If the Cubs do elect for a mini-rebuild and attempt to save some money this season, Rizzo’s $16.5 million would certainly save the club some bread. With his chronic back issues, the now 31-year-old may not look as likely a candidate for an extension as he once may have, especially to a club looking to make decisions based on money alone.
If some of these other core players get moved, why wouldn’t the Cubs move on from an expensive and leaving-his-prime first baseman, even if has been the beating heart of the blue and red? I hope it doesn’t come to it, but at this point, would it really be that hard to see? For that matter, if the fire sale begins, could Yu Darvish or even Kyle Hendricks be on the board for the right price?
I sure as heck hope not, but given the rumors and transactions so far, I’m not holding my breath.