Cubs News: How Kyle Schwarber both excelled and fell short with Chicago

Cubs: When it mattered most, Kyle Schwarber came through in big spots

Winning a World Series is all that any Cubs fan wanted and Schwarber was a big reason that wish came true. As previously mentioned, he returned to play in the 2016 World Series after months of rehabbing his knee which suffered torn ligaments back on April 7 of that year. Seven hits in 20 at-bats, including the leadoff single in the bottom of the 10th inning of Game 7.

I cannot fail to mention him mashing five home runs and hitting .333 in the 2015 postseason, in which the Cubs made it to the NLCS. His mammoth shot on top of the scoreboard in the NLDS clinching game is still celebrated to this day. Schwarber is a career .288/.405/.576 postseason hitter.

Schwarber displayed very solid power throughout his Cubs career. From 2017-2019 he hit 94 home runs and .829 OPS in 421, averaging 31 home runs a season. His season-high was 38 in 2019. The former first-rounder became the fastest Cub to reach 100 home runs in franchise history. He also took his walks at a rate that is considered between “great” and “excellent” by FanGraphs with a career walk rate of 13 percent. Average is considered 8 percent and “excellent” is considered 15 percent. Schwarber never walked in below 11.5 percent of his plate appearances in any given season.

In terms of making contact, he has always hit the ball hard. From 2017-2020 he averaged a 91.7 MPH exit velocity. He was fourth-highest in exit velocity in 2019 and 15th in 2020. It does not take computers and cameras for fans to see how hard he can hit the ball. He smashed the ball in college, and that is what drew Epstein to him when scouting him, and he was able to do that in the majors.

Cubs: A lot of Kyle Schwarber’s weaknesses stood out this season

Outside of the home runs and walks, there was a lot of whiffs and some struggles over periods of time. Schwarber was always going to strikeout a bit more than the average player. FanGraphs considers a 20 percent K rate average, and Schwarber’s career mark is 28 percent.

In 2017 he struggled a great deal. At one point, he was sent to the minors for a little while before coming back. He posted a 30.9 percent K rate, which is very awful. It did go down in 2018 (27.5 percent) and 2019 (25.6 percent), but it went back up to 29.5 percent in 2020 when he hit just .188. While many people might not have ever seen it, Epstein once thought he had the skill to be a legit good hitter beyond just home runs and walks.

More from Cubbies Crib

• Cubs should keep close eye on non-tender candidate Cody Bellinger
• Cubs starting pitching has been thriving on the North Side
• Make no mistake: the Cubs are very much about power hitters
• Cubs are giving pitcher Javier Assad a deserved shot
• Cubs: It’s time to start thinking about potential September call-ups

In addition to whiffs, Schwarber being a heavier pull hitter (43.8 percent pull) and hitting 17.8 percent line drives vs. 41.1 percent ground balls in his career has resulted in an overall .267 BABIP. Note that last year his groundball rate and pull rate were both right around 50 percent. Put these factors together and you have a lot of outs on groundballs pulled into the shift. Not spraying the ball as much and not hitting as many line drives (21 percent was considered the estimated average by FanGraphs) made getting hits harder when the defense was ready with the shift.

Then there is the power, which while we mentioned was a positive, is also somewhat of a shortcoming. There was expectation of him becoming a 40+ home run hitter with the way he can hit the ball. He has hit between 26-38 home runs from 2017-2019.

Again, still very good, but he has hit over 35 home runs just once, and in time where hitters are mashing the ball out of the ballpark more than ever, the value of a low-mid 30s home run producer is not quite as big is it was a few years ago. He still can be that guy in the future with whoever he plays with, but so far he has not reached that point.

We can mention the ups and downs on defense, but that is an element of his game that is not expected to reach Gold Glove-caliber status ever. It is just an argument to make he is a DH and he could have been sold high after 2016.

Now we see if Schwarber will be part of the future Cubs plans. He could get an extension per Gordon Wittenmyer, but time will tell. If it is the end, then his legacy is pretty much set as the guy who was a hero for the team that gave us the long awaited World Series championship. Those hits and home runs will live in our memories for the rest of our lives.