Cubs: National League Central will be far less competitive in 2021

The Cubs have played in one of the best divisions in MLB for the past few years.

The Cubs‘ rise to the top of baseball facilitated a new sense of competitiveness within the division. Even as teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates began to slide, the Milwaukee Brewers took their place.

Chicago was one of three teams to make the playoffs this season, along with the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds, albeit in an expanded format. Still, the NL Central had quality depth after seemingly taking a downturn in 2019.

Well, the 2021 campaign will really be the season the division goes from one of the best to one of the worst in baseball. The Cubs, Brewers and Reds could all be dealing key players, while the Cardinals are hesitant to spend money. As for the Pirates? They are something of an afterthought.

Here is a closer look at the drastic changes that could take place within the division.

Chicago Cubs: St. Louis bogged down by payroll concerns

The Cardinals should be in the best position of any club in the division.

St. Louis has a strong pitching staff and payroll flexibility to add offense where it sees fit. Perhaps the Redbirds would even take on a trade for Nolan Arenado or Francisco Lindor.

But, about the payroll flexibility.

The Cardinals have been operating like a team with very little to spend this offseason. They declined Kolten Wong’s club option in a rather curious decision. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported the team has hardly checked in on free agents other than internal ones, those being Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina.

Moreover, the Cardinals are anticipating additional revenue losses stemming from reduced attendance, which especially impacts a team with one of the best attendance rates in baseball.

St. Louis desperately needs and impact bat and possibly fringe rotation depth. But it does not seem likely the Cardinals can make the big splash necessary to put them over the top.

Chicago Cubs: Cincinnati could also wheel and deal

The Reds were a popular dark horse pick to win the NL Central last year.

Cincinnati did make the playoffs, though it just snuck in the back door with a 31-29 mark despite an NL Cy Young performance from Trevor Bauer.

But, Bauer is headed for free agency, and the Reds will have a brutal time trying to sign him in a winter where big-market teams have an added advantage and the New York Mets suddenly look like major spenders.

It is possible the Reds already understand they could be forced to reassess. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Cincinnati is open to trading right-hander Sonny Gray, a move that would almost certainly suggest a competitive shift unless it gets a star in return.

The Reds might also be open to dealing one of Raisel Iglesias or Archie Bradley, both of whom are closer prototypes and will each be free agents at the end of the year.

Cincinnati is somewhat caught between a rock and a hard place. The Reds need offense and could pursue a star, but they also are likely to lose Bauer and desperately need farm assets.

Chicago Cubs: Brewers caught in no-man’s land

The Brewers have consistently outperformed their expected win-loss margins.

Milwaukee had a Pythagorean win-loss of 81-81 in 2019, yet somehow clawed its way to 89 wins and a Wild Card berth. That was just one year after they won five more games than expected en route to a NLCS appearance.

But the Brewers’ luck ran out in 2020. Milwaukee won 29 games and missed the playoffs. The Brewers’ offense ranked 12th out of 15 NL teams in runs scored and 13th in OPS, and the rotation was iffy outside of Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes.

Milwaukee could be in the worst spot of any of these teams. The Brewers might be just competitive enough to sniff a playoff berth in 2021, but nothing more. They have limited funds as a low-payroll club, and also have arguably the worst farm system in baseball.

The latter two points explain why David Stearns is once again likely to take inquiries on star left-handed reliever Josh Hader, especially considering his growing arbitration salary as well as the development of NL Rookie of the Year Devin Williams.

Chicago Cubs: Pittsburgh just beginning a long rebuild

The Pirates’ outlook remains clear: they will sell as much as possible and keep stacking assets for the long term.

Pittsburgh had the worst record (19-41) in baseball last season, and things are likely to get worse before they get better.

The Pirates will almost certainly hope to shop pitchers like Steven Brault and possibly Joe Musgrove. Position players such as Josh Bell or Colin Moran could also be on the move if Ben Cherington can find suitors.

In any case, Pittsburgh understands rebuilding will be long and arduous. The Pirates were never going to be competitive, but their utter woefulness epitomizes the general downward trend occurring within the division.