Chicago Cubs: Looking at the team’s non-tender candidates

Chicago Cubs will either non-tender or trade Kyle Schwarber

You always felt that Kyle Schwarber was relatively safe under the watch of Theo Epstein. The former Cubs president of baseball operations was openly a fan of the former first-rounder, but with his future now in the hands of Jed Hoyer, things could be different.

MLBTR projects Schwarber for a $7.9 million salary in his final pass through the arbitration process. It seems likely Chicago works out a trade for the former Indiana University standout, but if all else fails, don’t be surprised to see the Cubs non-tender him ahead of the Dec. 2 deadline.

Just a year ago, non-tendering Schwarber would have been unthinkable. After all, he stole the show in the second half of 2019, teaming up with Nicholas Castellanos to give the Cubs a deadly one-two punch in the outfield. Down the stretch, he belted 20 home runs and slashed .280/.366/.631 – a dramatic improvement on his career marks.

But he fell back into old habits this season, hitting the ball hard but having little to show for it. His .188 average, simply put, didn’t get it done – despite his ranking in the top five percent of hitters in average exit velocity.

The offense needs to have a different look moving forward and Schwarber’s departure could be one way the Cubs make that happen this offseason.

Chicago Cubs are already actively trying to trade Kris Bryant

At this point, it sure feels like Hoyer is doing everything in his power to trade the former NL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player ahead of Dec. 2. With just one year of team control left and a projected $18.6 million salary, Kris Bryant is the guy who seems mostly likely to be moved in the next week.

Bryant, 28, is coming off the worst season of his still-brilliant career. He battled through injuries, batted just .206 with a .293 OBP and hit only four home runs. Knowing all that, though, we’re still talking about a guy who was 37 percent better offensively than a league average player from 2015-2019, evidenced by a .284/.385/.516 line.

We’ve already seen Kris Bryant rumors connecting the third baseman to the Yankees, Nationals and Braves, among others. But if Hoyer can’t get a decent return on the open market, could the Cubs actually consider non-tendering Bryant and saving the nearly $20 million he’s owed next year?

I doubt it. Were trade talks to fail in the next week or so, I suspect Chicago would hope Bryant bounces back and look to deal him ahead of the deadline next summer. But with major payroll concerns in Wrigleyville, the new regime might not have a choice in how this plays out.

Chicago Cubs could shake things up by non-tendering these guys

Between Schwarber and Bryant, we’re talking about nearly $30 million that would be coming off the books if they’re non-tendered. That’s a tremendous chunk of payroll for one of the premier big market teams in the game today.

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Those non-tenders would make headlines. There’s no doubt about that. But this last group of guys outlined by MLBTR seem likelier to be non-tendered than someone with the star power of Bryant or Schwarber.

Jose Martinez, Colin Rea, Dan Winkler and Kyle Ryan could all be cut loose – saving the organization somewhere in the ballpark of another $5 million. I’d say Martinez is a ‘lock’ to be non-tendered given his brutal showing in 2020 – and the three pitchers fall in line right behind him.

Frankly, not one of these guys brings anything exceptional to the table. Ryan looked like he might be turning the corner in 2019, but then went in the wrong direction this season. Rea and Winkler, while nice depth pieces, don’t represent anything warranting nearly $2 million between them.

We’ve got one week until the non-tender deadline. Don’t be shocked to see a Kris Bryant or Kyle Schwarber trade prior to then – and even after that date hits, this is shaping up to be the most eventful offseason in years for the Chicago Cubs.