Chicago Cubs: Will it be a retool or rebuild under Jed Hoyer?

Cubs: A retool scenario does not necessarily mean they will be focusing on winning down the road instead of sooner, but changes are still significant.

If there was a vague definition for a typical retool in sports, it is making a number of roster changes while keeping some of the core intact. This usually indicates that there is enough on the team at the moment to keep around for long-term success, but big changes will be needed to be made around those select players/coaches. A retool also allows to fix a roster fairly fast, not needing years of development to be contenders again.

Remember the 2016 New York Yankees? Like the current Cubs, they had talent enough to be competitive, however they were clearly not a World Series contender. GM Brian Cashman made several trades that year including Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Carlos Beltran to restock assets without tearing the entire team down. Since that season they have not missed the postseason.

If the Cubs went this route, then we could see several core players traded away to restock assets while keeping other key players. Just as an example, say the Cubs keep Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Ian Happ and Kyle Hendricks while trading away Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras. That keeps a chunk of the core team together while exchanging other pieces to restock assets, which could include both prospects and MLB players.

Why the Cubs could go this route:

There is still enough talent on this team to at least compete, clearly as they won the NL Central in 2020. Changes are still needed to be legit contenders. The Cubs won’t spend money, so trades and development is really the only option to improve. With the financial losses of 2020, selling a full rebuild and losing might be tough for the organization to do.

A retool can at least keep them competitive short-term and even in the mix, which will keep fans watching, and the team’s long term outlook can look brighter. Overall it is a quicker and less painful approach, but also risks putting stock into something that might not improve enough.

Cubs fans know what a rebuild looks like, but one in 2021 would look different

There is no real need to explain to a Cubs fan what a typical rebuild entails. Tearing it all down and starting over essentially. If the Cubs were to go this route, we are looking at most if not all the core traded away with a year or two and rebuilding through the farm and upcoming younger players.

One could not help but wonder if this is possible with the talks of “heavy restart” from executives. Hearing Epstein talking about the long-term of the organization before departing can naturally turn the rebuild thoughts in fan’s minds on. It is also easier to think about a rebuild seeing as Chicago fans on both sides of town have gone through them in the past decade and they have produced positive results.

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A potential rebuild for the Cubs in 2021 obviously will see a few key differences than the one initiated in 2011. The rebuild that resulted in the 2016 World Series began with an entirely new front office regime, with very few valuable assets in both the farm and MLB team.

Epstein had to bring the organization into the 21st century and completely start from scratch. Hoyer at least has assets to trade, an analytically-driven organization put in place and a farm that is at least hopefully on the upswing after recent drafts. It would still be a challenging long term project requiring time and effort.

Why the Cubs would go this route:

The core has had a number of issues since they won in 2016, from injuries to just not playing as expected. Whether we like it or not, extensions to key core players will not happen for all of them. Getting value while they can might be the best long term solution for Hoyer. Other key players are growing in age and might be best to think they will need to replaced sooner than later. A rebuild is saying that Hoyer wants to fully hit restart because the current core does not give them a good enough chance to win a World series going forward, and he’d rather take time to develop a new team like many other powerhouse teams recently have. 2016 might just have been the peak.

Time will tell what happens this offseason and next year. Depending on the direction they head in after a few trades in the offseason, 2021 could determine if they go further down a rebuild path or look to quickly shore up the teams they made recent changes to. Nothing can necessarily be ruled out right now, but going absolute full rebuild right off the bat does seem pretty drastic.