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Cubs News: Why they should value intangibles over analytics this offseason
The 2020 World Series shows teams like the Cubs why analytics should not be the deciding factor to make big decisions in games.
Today’s baseball era calls for some teams to value analytics rather than a traditional approach of playing with instinctive strategies to win games. In my opinion, this is a flawed concept which the Chicago Cubs should stay away from.
There’s no re-inventing this sport–it’s won on the field with fundamental play, plain and simple. The most recent victims of the sabermetrics mentality are manager Kevin Cash and the Tampa Bay Rays.
In Game 6 of the World Series, Cash pulled starter Blake Snell after he gave up his second hit while striking out nine batters in 5 1/3 shutout innings. Even though Snell held the first three Dodgers’ hitters to a combined 0-for-6 with six strikeouts on the night, Cash chose to go to his bullpen because that’s what his analytical approach told him to do.
As you probably know, that move didn’t work out well, and the Dodgers raised the commissioner’s trophy at the end of the night. It seemed like just about everyone wondered why Cash would pull his ace at that moment, including Mookie Betts, who ripped a double down the line on the third pitch from Rays’ reliever Nick Anderson.
“I’m not sure why, I’m not going to ask any questions.” Mookie Betts said after the game. “He was pitching a great game…It seems like that’s all we needed.” h/t Dan Shaugnessy, Globe Columnist
This is the type of approach I hope the Cubs organization does not fall in love with. Don’t get me wrong, I think there are some benefits to analytics, but as we have seen this past week, it only gets teams so far. At the end of the day, it shouldn’t be used as the deciding factor in games.
I think it’s ridiculous to see things like pitchers looking into their hats to decide what pitch they should throw, based on what John Doe says because he’s studied five years’ worth of sabermetrics. It’s probably no coincidence Kenley Jansen, who was on the mound studying his flashcards, gave up the game-winning hit to career .202 hitter Brett Phillips in Game 4.
We haven’t seen too many exaggerated forms of analytical play from the Cubs, but there are a few traditional approaches I would like to see the team take in 2021.
If the Cubs plan on contending for a World Series title, acquiring a true leadoff hitter is a must.
Up to this point, it’s still a mystery as to why Theo Epstein and the Cubs have not acquired a traditional leadoff hitter since the departure of Dexter Fowler in the 2016 offseason.
To all the nonbelievers and those who say, “just throw the hottest hitter at the top of the order,” let’s take a look at the impact of Mookie Betts in the 2020 World Series.
Betts in Dodgers World Series Wins: (4 games) 7-for-18 5 R 3 RBI
Betts in Dodgers World Series Losses: (2 games) 0-for-8
You don’t have to be an expert to look at those numbers and determine Betts’ importance in the leadoff spot for the Dodgers.
Since losing Fowler, the Cubs have tried various leadoff experiments that just haven’t worked out. The latest guinea pig this past season was Kris Bryant.
Bryant as 1st Batter of Game: (16 games) .067 BA .258 OPS 0 BB 5 SO
There’s no telling how long David Ross would’ve kept the former MVP in the leadoff spot, but fortunately and unfortunately, injuries kept Bryant out of the lineup and made way for Ian Happ.
Happ had arguably his best season at the major-league level and proved to have value as a leadoff man.
Happ as 1st Batter of Game: (37 games) .273 BA 1.079 OPS 4 HR 4 RBI 4 BB 9 SO
Putting Happ in the leadoff spot in 2021 might not be the worst thing, but the way I see it, if the Cubs got a leadoff man, they can move Happ in the middle of the order where his ability to drive in runs is more valuable.
Will a true leadoff hitter fix all the issues the Cubs offense had this past season? Absolutely not, but it would definitely be a start.
The offensive approach needs to be changed heading into next season.
It’s no secret; the offense flat out stunk this past season. Players like Baez and Bryant put up the worst offensive numbers we have seen thus far in their big league careers.
The only players who had good seasons were Ian Happ and Jason Heyward. While they definitely had solid seasons, it didn’t feel like they had a huge impact on the team with the Cubs playing under .500 baseball after getting off to a 13-3 start.
The team recently parted ways with assistant hitting coach Termell Sledge, so that’s a step in the right direction.
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It seemed like there was an emphasis on the Cubs’ offense to build up the opposing pitch-count and work deep in their at-bats. Clearly, it did not work for a large portion of the season, and nothing changed in the two playoff games where the team managed just one run.
The old saying of “if you see a pitch you like, rip it” will always apply to the game of baseball ‘til the end of time. Sure there are some circumstances where hitters should take a pitch or two; I’m not talking about going up there and swinging at everything. I’m referring to situations like knowing when a first-pitch fastball is coming and taking a whack at it.
Cub hitters watched good pitches go-by to get themselves down in the count too many times because pitchers knew their gameplan. If you watched the Dodgers playoff-run, nearly every batter in their lineup made things tough on opposing pitchers with their at-bats. Not only would they work the counts by laying off unhittable pitches, but they were aggressive with anything near the strike zone and were forcing the opposition to beat them with pitches in the strike zone more often than not. In some games, you could even count on your hand the number of times the Dodgers would go down 1,2,3 in an inning.
dark. Next. Stay away from Brett Gardner
Ultimately, the Cubs’ offensive success won’t just come from the coaching game plans, but the players. It will be up to the hitters to make the necessary adjustments to see more success in 2021.
Adding a few new players to give the offense a different look will probably be necessary, but like many things this past year, any changes will remain unknown.