Chicago Cubs News: Is it even possible to “blow it up”?

Theo Epstein may be stepping away from the Cubs sooner than anticipated. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)
Theo Epstein may be stepping away from the Cubs sooner than anticipated. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)
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Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images
Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images /

Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein set a rather ominous tone during his postseason press conference on Monday.

The Chicago Cubs‘ Theo Epstein–who will be in the final year of his current contract–hinted he could depart once his contract expired with the Cubs and indicated there would be personnel changes in the offseason.

It only seems to make sense.

The Cubs bottomed out by losing two straight to the “Bottom Feeder” Miami Marlins in the Wild Card round. The bats–as they have been for some time–went silent yet again, evoking a rather familiar trend of Chicago’s inability to hit in the final months of the season.

Theo did not necessarily say this was something of an “end” for this Cubs core, but the offensive struggles and playoff woes carried an air of finality with them.

Fans will undoubtedly be clamoring for change. The Cubs are unlikely to spend on free agents, given their recent track record. It seems the more likely option is exploring trade avenues for some of the top names on the roster; embrace change, as it were.

But this notion of “blowing it up” will almost certainly be harder to accomplish this offseason than it might have been in past years.

Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images /

Chicago Cubs: Kris Bryant’s stock has fallen

Let’s start with Kris Bryant.

It is no secret the Cubs have taken inquiries on Bryant and tried to scope out his value for some time now. That value might have come as close to a “peak” as possible last season when “KB” rebounded from a poor 2018 with 31 homers and a .903 OPS in 2019.

However, it would hardly be a surprise if evaluators have soured significantly on Bryant. He dealt with injuries yet again this season, posting a .644 OPS in just 34 games while also ranking in the bottom 20 percent in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.  Not to mention, he also ranked in the bottom 20 percent in terms of outs above average.

Of course, the most pressing issue is Bryant will be a free agent after the 2021 season. Teams are unlikely to offer the Cubs a haul for a player who–recently–has struggled to stay healthy and have sustained success, particularly in a walk year.

This is not to say the Cubs will not look to deal Bryant. But merely trading him for the sake of getting a return would practically be as bad as letting him walk in free agency and getting a compensation pick in exchange.

Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images /

Chicago Cubs: Will there be takers for Kyle Schwarber?

Schwarber is another guy whose name has been in and out of the rumor mill for the past few years.

Epstein and Jed Hoyer have routinely preached patience for “Schwarbs,” and it seemed to pay off when he had a monster second half in 2019.

Schwarber finished the 2019 season with 38 homers and a .871 OPS and seemed primed for a massive year in 2020. It did not happen.

The 22-year-old hit 11 homers, but he slugged just .393 while the ground ball and pull rates skyrocketed. Schwarber also continued to struggle in left field, ranking in the bottom one percent in terms of outs above average, per Baseball Savant.

There could still be intrigue as far as Schwarber’s value is concerned. His exit velocities and hard-hit rates are still good, and perhaps he can stick somewhere if the universal DH remains.

But he has not produced consistently enough to merit a big return, especially considering he, too, will be a free agent after next year.

Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images
Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images /

Chicago Cubs: Top trade assets unlikely to be moved

The next three are also big question marks in terms of how the Cubs see them going forward.

Baez is still one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, and he makes things happen on the base paths. He also ranked dead-last among qualified hitters with a paltry .238 OBP.

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Regardless, the Cubs seem unlikely to trade “El Mago” because of his status as a fan favorite and indications he wants to remain in Chicago. It would seem wise of Epstein to at least explore his value, given the sheer quality of depth at the shortstop position in recent years.

Happ had a big year, hitting 12 homers and posting a 131 OPS+. He would figure to have value as a controllable asset, but the Cubs probably will not move him considering inconsistent outfield production in the past.

Contreras will be the key guy to watch. The 28-year-old is unquestionably one of the best players at a premium position. He also showed major improvement in terms of his pitch-framing, ranking in the 85th percentile this year, per Baseball Savant.

It would seem Contreras probably has the highest trade value of any player on the roster. But the Cubs might not be as comfortable dealing “Willy” given Victor Caratini’s struggles (.661 OPS) at the dish this season. Plus, Miguel Amaya still figures to be a couple of years away.

Next. 2020 campaign a mirror image of 2018 season. dark

This offseason will be challenging for Theo, even if he hopes to shake things up. Epstein will probably be looking to move assets, but he also negotiates in bad faith if he fails to get an adequate return for these players in the final year of his own contract.

“Blow it up” might be hard to achieve this winter.

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