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Chicago Cubs Preview: An early look at potential first round opponents
The Chicago Cubs playing baseball in October is looking like a sure thing, but their first-round opponent is still up in the air.
As we get set for the final week of the regular season, the Chicago Cubs have won four straight contests and sit atop the NL Central with a comfortable 5 1/2 game lead. A team that many have written off this season, the Cubs have kept their heads above water, and now all their gears are turning at the perfect time as October nears.
The playoff structure for this shortened season will be different from others by featuring a 16-team playoff bracket. The first round (Wild Card Series) will feature eight teams from each league, seeded in the following order: division winners by record (1-3), division runner-up teams by record (4-6), and the two best remaining teams (7-8).
The first-round series will be a best-of-three, with all games played at the home ballpark of the better seed with the pairings as follows: #1 seed vs. #8 seed, #2 seed vs. #7 seed, #3 seed vs. #6 seed, #4 seed vs. #5 seed.
As of Friday morning, the Cubs (30-20) currently have the second-best record in the National League.
Current National League Playoff Picture:
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (36-15) (#1 seed)
San Diego Padres (32-19) (#4 seed)
NL Central
Chicago Cubs (30-20) (#2 seed)
Cincinnati Reds (29-30) (#6 seed)
NL East
Atlanta Braves (29-21) (#3 seed)
Miami Marlins (25-23) (#5 seed)
Wild Card
San Francisco Giants (25-24) (#7 seed)
Philadelphia Phillies (24-25) (#8 seed)
St. Louis Cardinals (22-24) (0.5 GB)
Milwaukee Brewers (23-26) (1.0 GB)
New York Mets (23-27) (1.5 GB)
Colorado Rockies (22-27) (2.0 GB)
It would be a miracle to catch the Dodgers for the best overall record, so right now, it’s looking like the Cubs will be playing as the second or third seed. This means awaiting them in the first round will either be the first wild card team or the worst team amongst the division runner-ups.
Granted, 10 days are remaining before the season’s end, and some teams will have to do more work. The Cardinals and Marlins will be cranking out double-headers in this final stretch to make up for lost time.
So there is definitely a lot that can and probably will change. After all, baseball at the end of the season is pretty unique in itself. When you mix-in a global pandemic plus the elements of a shortened season, we could be in for an exciting finish.
If the Cubs are hot right now, and so are the Cincinnati Reds, who could end up being a first-round opponent.
At the moment, the second-best NL-record is the Cubs to lose. They are currently one game ahead of the Braves who have played the same amount of games up to this point. If the two teams were to swap spots between now and the end of the season, the Cubs would take on the current #6 seed: Cincinnati Reds.
As winners of five straight games, the Reds are currently one of the hottest teams in the league heading into their weekend series against the White Sox. They have surpassed Milwaukee and St. Louis for the second spot in the division, which they can use to determine their fate.
The Cubs-Reds matchups this season have been relatively even, with the North Siders holding a 6-4 advantage in the 10 games.
Aside from the Pirates, who everyone beats up–amongst division opponents, the Cubs have put up their best offensive numbers against the Reds: .220 BA .776 OPS 19 HR.
The pitching has been a bit of a different story, as the Reds have given the Cubs the most trouble in the division this season: 4.63 ERA 1.375 WHIP 15 HR.
Starting pitchers for the Cubs in the three games this series will likely be CY-Young candidate Yu Darvish, followed by Kyle Hendricks, and Jon Lester.
Here’s a look at their statistics against the Reds in 2020:
Yu Darvish (1-1) 2.25 ERA 12 IP 9 H 17 SO 5 BB
Kyle Hendricks (0-2) 9.58 ERA 10.1 IP 11 H 9 SO 2 BB
Jon Lester (1-0) 0.00 ERA 5 IP 0 H 1 SO 1 BB
The first thing that probably jumps out on that list is the numbers of Kyle Hendricks. He has been solid once again this season (5-4 3.29 ERA), yet for whatever reason, he has struggled at Great American Ballpark. Thankfully, it is looking like the Cubs would be playing these games at Wrigley, so that should not be an issue.
A lot of people picked Cincinnati to win the division this season. They couldn’t find their consistency for the longest time, but now that it is finally coming together, many teams would rather avoid the Reds who are loaded with some of the league’s best hitters (on paper) and dependable pitching staff.
Here’s a look at who the Reds will likely use on the mound in the first round and their statistics against the Cubs in 2020:
Trevor Bauer (1-1) 2.08 ERA 13 IP 7 H 15 SO 2 BB
Sonny Gray (1-1) 4.50 ERA 10 IP 7 H 15 SO 4 BB
Luis Castillo (0-1) 7.20 ERA 5 IP 5 H 7 SO 1 BB
Again we are not far away from October, but in terms of baseball, we still have a ways to go to determine if this matchup will even happen.
The Reds are only 1/2 game ahead of the Cardinals and one game up on the Brewers in the division. Both of these teams could quickly leap into the top NL Wild Card, where they would await the division winner with the second-best overall record. Against both St. Louis and Milwaukee, the Cubs have split each season series 5-5.
Now I have heard talks from friends, analysts, and others about how the Cubs should not want to face a division opponent in the playoffs because they have seen each other so many times already. I say, bring them on.
They should be more worried about facing the Cubs again, not the other way around. It’s the Cubs who are leading the division and will likely play with the home-field advantage.
Why should the Cubs, who are playing some great baseball at the moment, be scared of their opponent who is barely sneaking into the playoffs?
The San Francisco Giants have shocked the baseball world by putting themselves in a playoff position.
As it currently stands, the San Francisco Giants now hold the top Wild Card spot and are the #7 seed in the National League. No, that is not a typo, you read it correctly.
Somehow in this strange 2020 season, the Giants made things a little weirder by playing themselves into the postseason conversation. They still have 11 games to play (18 percent of the season), but if something were to end at this very moment, they would be matched up against the Chicago Cubs.
I’ve said it a few times in this article, but when I write about the Giants in the playoffs, I want to reiterate the idea of not counting the chickens before they hatch. I say this because their 11 games will be played in 10 days, with their opponents being the Oakland A’s (31-19) and San Diego Padres (32-19), who will be pushing for higher seeding.
Their other opponent will be the Colorado Rockies (22-27), who could be fighting for their playoff lives. Still, they have gotten this far, so we have to give the Giants some respect.
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This certainly is not the same team as those who won three World Series titles in the last decade. Manager Bruce Bochy is retired, Madison Bumgarner is playing for Arizona, and Buster Posey opted-out.
The team still has veterans Brandon Crawford (.277 BA .799 OPS 5 HR 19 RBI) and Brandon Belt (.300 BA .987 OPS 8 HR 24 RBI) who are playing well this season. Combine that with another vet in Evan Longoria (.288 BA .792 OPS 6 HR 26 RBI) and some other solid position players like Donovan Solano (.342 BA .889 OPS 3 HR 28 RBI), and all of a sudden, they quietly have a top-10 offense in all of baseball.
Giants Offensive Ranks:
Batting Average: .269 (3rd-MLB)
OPS: .791 (7th-MLB)
Runs: 251 (10th-MLB)
So why is it they might not even make the playoffs with an offense this good? You guessed it–pitching.
As a group, Giants pitchers hold the tenth worst combined ERA in baseball–4.74. If they manage to hang onto a playoff spot, here are the three pitchers they will likely send to the mound:
RHP Johnny Cueto (2-1) 4.78 ERA 52.2 IP 48 H 48 SO 22 BB
RHP Kevin Gausman (3-2) 4.05 ERA 46.2 IP 41 H 62 SO 12 BB
LHP Tyler Anderson (2-3) 5.06 ERA 48 IP 49 H 33 SO 18 IP
First-year manager Gabe Kapler has a scrappy group, but without good starting pitching, that will only get you so far come playoff time.
It certainly would not be a cake-walk for the Cubs in the first round, I’m not sure any opponent would be, but one would like to think they hold a decisive advantage in both starting pitching and bullpen over the Giants.
There would be no excuses for a poor offensive performance against San Francisco in the first round.
The Philadelphia Phillies are in a position to make the playoffs and can play themselves into a first-round series against the Cubs.
With their 11 games remaining, the Philadelphia Phillies (24-25) are hanging onto the final NL Wild Card spot for dear life. They are only a half-game ahead of the Cardinals (22-24) but only 1 1/2 games behind the Miami Marlins (25-23) for the runner-up spot in the NL East.
Not too long ago, the Fightin’ Phils looked like a lock for the postseason, a few crushing losses and injuries have jeopardized their chances as the team has won just three of their last 11 games.
Starting pitcher Jake Arrieta has been placed on the 10-day IL with a right hamstring strain and will miss the remainder of the regular season, joining first baseman Rhys Hoskins.
The team will also be without catcher J.T. Realmuto and shortstop Jean Segura during this weekend’s series against the Toronto Blue Jays. (26-23)
The timing could not be worse for the Phillies, who will take on the Nationals (18-29) and Rays (33-18) to end the season with four other national league teams breathing down their necks.
Still, the Phillies are down, but not out, so let’s say they limp into the postseason. There is a bit of rearranging that would need to happen with both teams, but what exactly would the Cubs be up against in a first-round matchup against the Phillies?
The $330-million man Bryce Harper has not put up the dominant numbers he was paid for: .252 BA .907 OPS 10 HR 24 RBI. Still, the rest of the offense has done enough to keep the Phillies above water.
Phillies Offensive Ranks:
Batting Average: .256 (9th-MLB)
OPS: .772 (8th-MLB)
Runs: 257 (6th-MLB)
The pitching of the Phillies is interesting. As a group, they stink up the league with the fifth-worst ERA in MLB–5.24. Yet, they have two of the best starting pitchers in baseball in Aaron Nola (5-3, 2.92 ERA) and Zack Wheeler (4-0, 2.62 ERA). Their third starter in a three-game series will likely be Arrieta (4-4, 5.08 ERA) if he is healthy.
If they manage to hang onto their playoff spot, the combination of Nola and Wheeler could very well give teams some issues if they pitch as well as they have during this season.
Given all the adversity they are currently facing, if they found a way into the playoffs and advance past the first round, it would undoubtedly be labeled an upset. Given the magic around October baseball, this is the kind of thing teams around the league need to be wary of.
Fans should be excited for postsesaon. dark. Next
Throw out any regular season statistics and records come playoff time because they might give us an idea of what to expect, but anything can happen.
The good news for the Cubs is they have a group of veteran players who have been through this before. It is not something you can put in a box score, but the playoff experience is something that can go a long way, which is why the Cubs will be dangerous in October regardless of who they are playing.