Cubs can make these simple changes to fix a struggling offense
The Cubs may be in first place, but changes are needed come postseason time.
As of Saturday morning, the Chicago Cubs (26-20) find themselves atop the National League Central with a three-game lead over the Cardinals (19-19). They have been in first place for a majority of this shortened season, yet for most fans it does not feel like the current state of the team makes them poised for a deep postseason run. One of the big reasons for this feeling ties into what has been inconsistent offensive performances.
Since jumping out the gates with a 13-3 start, the offense has taken a step backward in the past month’s worth of games, and players we usually see carrying the team are struggling.
To put things in perspective, the Cubs post a team batting average of .229 (24th-MLB) and are just as bad with RISP (.235). To much of a surprise, the exceptions this season have been Jason Heyward (.292/.412/.519 5 HR, 17 RBI) and MVP candidate Ian Happ (.284/.394/.608 12 HR, 26 RBI). Willson Contreras also looks like he is coming into form, slashing .455/.556/.682 with a home run and seven RBI in his last seven games heading into Friday’s series opener.
So what about the rest of the lineup? We are seeing uncharacteristic struggles from the players who are heavily relied upon to drive in runs:
Anthony Rizzo: .213/.337/.337 9 HR 20 RBI (44 games)
Javier Baez: .196/.235/.357 6 HR 19 RBI (44 games)
Kyle Schwarber: .208/.317/.444 10 HR 21 RBI (44 games)
Kris Bryant: .206/.280/.320 2 HR 4 RBI (24 games)
This is arguably the worst we have seen these players perform in their careers. Maybe the cause is not having a true leadoff man, having no fans and all the other elements of this strange 2020 season. But, I believe the biggest reason to blame ties into one thing that has yet to change this season.
Cubs are patient – too patient – when it comes to their plate approach
The Cubs currently lead MLB in pitches per plate appearance (4.19). Woo-hoo, that is great for anyone who loves diving into league statistics, but there is no point in taking all of those pitches if it translates to the type of offense currently on display.
It seems like more often than not these Cub hitters are constantly watching great first-pitch strikes go-by before they go down in the count 0-2, 1-2, etc. which makes things more difficult on themselves. Odds are as a hitter you only get one ideal pitch to do something with per at-bat, and if that is the one you watch as it gets called for a strike you could be out of luck the rest of the AB.
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This style is making some aggressive hitters look lost at the plate – I do not recall seeing Baez strikeout looking on fastballs down the middle more times than he has this season.
This type of offense could work for some teams, but not the Cubs. With the exception of a few players, this team was built to slug, and they are missing out on first pitch fastballs they should be putting into the gaps all because they are trying to work deep counts.
It does not look like the team is going to adopt playing small-ball anytime soon, so if this is the approach David Ross is sticking with he needs to know when to use it and lose it. As we have seen at times this season working deep counts could work, but it all depends on the pitcher facing this lineup.
Scouting reports catch on fast, so if the opposing team knows the Cubs are going to sit there and work the count, they are going to find ways to get ahead of their hitters and make things difficult like we have seen during the struggles. That is why we have seen such a change from the 13-3 start.
Cubs can’t keep doing the same thing and expect different results
Ross sticking with the same lineup structure nearly all season could also be a reason for the poor offensive displays. He is definitely showing the support for his players which is a must to develop a good relationship with the team, but there comes a time where a little change is necessary. Maybe moving a guy down in the lineup would help him out more than it would hurt.
This Cubs team is a selfless group, I find it hard to believe they would complain about getting moved around in the order when they are not performing well, especially considering a new lineup Joe Maddon posted nearly every game even when they were having success.
I have been one of the biggest advocates all season for the Cubs to finally go out and get a proven lead off hitter. We are still waiting, but in the meantime the team is rolling with Ian Happ who has done an exceptional job thus far.
I still think it would be more beneficial for the Cubs to eventually get a true lead off hitter and move Happ somewhere else in the order where his bat can be more dangerous than it already is.
One player I think should be experimented at the top of the lineup at some point is Cameron Maybin. When leading off an inning, the new Cub is slashing .333/.412./.600 in 15 plate appearances this season.
Below is a lineup change I would not mind to see tested for a game or two down this final stretch:
- Cameron Maybin-CF
- Ian Happ-LF
- Anthony Rizzo-1B
- Willson Contreras-C
- Javier Baez-SS
- Jason Heyward-RF
- Kris Bryant-3B
- Kyle Schwarber-DH
- Nico Hoerner/Jason Kipnis-2B
All things considered, even with the struggles this season the Cubs are in first place with 14 games remaining. As many baseball fans know, having the best statistics and record can be thrown out the window come postseason time.
There are no major changes coming anytime soon to this team, so we are going to ride or die with this team down the stretch. Personally, I do not think there is a better group of players poised to make a deep-run while the rest of the league is counting them out.
All it takes is for a team to get hot at the right time, because regardless of this being a season different from any other, one thing is certain: Anything can, and will happen in October.