Chicago Cubs are working with a starting rotation filled with question marks

Chicago Cubs have a very top-heavy mix of arms this year

Kyle Hendricks is the one guy nobody ever seems to worry about – and with good reason. While his last two years haven’t been on the same level as his 2016 campaign when he captured the league’s ERA crown, he’s still one of the most consistent starters in the league, capable of keeping hitters off balance with his offspeed repertoire.

After Hendricks, right-hander Yu Darvish serves as a stark contrast to Hendricks in terms of his make-up. Working with a staggering 11 pitches in his arsenal, the four-time All-Star will hope to build off a breakout second half last year, in which he posted a 118-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If he can keep putting the pieces together, the Cubs could have one of the stronger 1-2 punches in the league.

It’s there where things get a bit murkier.

Behind Chicago’s two right-handers, Lester, their seasoned southpaw, comes back for what may very well be his final go-round on the North Side. Even with prorated thresholds for options, it’s hard to envision the 36-year-old hitting the necessary innings pitched mark for his 2021 option to vest.

Last year, Lester allowed a league-leading 205 hits in his 31 starts. He had a couple outings that went sideways in a hurry that really blew his numbers up, but you could tell he was grinding almost every time out, regardless of the result. Am I ready to bet against a three-time World Series champion and one of baseball’s best all-time big-game pitchers? No way. But he’s not a slam dunk when it comes to his starts anymore, either.

Chicago Cubs need guys to step up if they hope to compete

So there. That’s your three starters you feel pretty OK about. But when we’re talking about rounding out the rotation, I genuinely have no idea what to expect or predict. Hopefully, Quintana will return fairly soon and fill his usual spot every five days. If he doesn’t? Buckle up.

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Suppose Quintana doesn’t get back on the mound in short order. Tyler Chatwood, who’s been inconsistent during his Cubs tenure, to say the least, becomes your fourth starter. That’s not an idea that makes me feel all that confident given the body of work we’ve seen.

Don’t get me wrong, last year, he was a much improved presence on the pitching staff. He split his time between the rotation and the bullpen, making five starts and working to a 3.97 ERA while managing a 3.67 ERA in 33 relief appearances. But how will he perform when he’s slotted in to get the ball ever five days to make a dozen starts? We’ll soon know.

It looks like Alec Mills will take Quintana’s spot in the rotation in the short-term. He gave us a lot to like last season in a hybrid role, posting a 2.75 ERA in 36 innings of work. But again, to me, dropping him into the rotation and expecting similar results isn’t a logical course of action. One brief stint does not a career make.

For me, the Cubs’ success in 2020 comes down to their pitching. Can Craig Kimbrel get it together? Will the rotation bring enough quality to the table to give the bats a chance to do their job and push across enough runs to get some wins? We’ll soon know – 10 days to go.