Chicago Cubs: Predicting the starting lineup we’ll see on Opening Day

Ready for Chicago Cubs baseball? Here’s how I picture the starting lineup.

While some of you may have thought the owners and players were never going to be able to settle their differences, cooler heads prevailed (or maybe fiscally-minded ones) and the Cubs will finally get ready to start an abbreviated 60-game schedule in 2020. Well, that is if COVID-19 allows it.

If MLB is able to play amidst the pandemic, new manager David Ross will have to decide on a lineup. Not just any lineup either, as he will have the added benefit and decision of selecting one more player to DH every game now that the designated hitter will be in play for both the National and American Leagues this season.

While most National League teams are probably scrambling to figure out what to do about the DH, the Cubs have a myriad of options with that extra spot in the order. Ross had been on the record as saying he likes more of a set lineup, but that was before the DH was in play. My guess is, with the DH now a part of the lineup every day, the Cubs will play matchups and handedness quite often rather than go with one set guy in that role. After all, they don’t really have David Ortiz or Nelson Cruz sitting around the clubhouse.

With the DH now in play, lineup construction will be all that more exciting and controversial for both the Cubs and everyone else in the National League. Let’s take a look at what the team’s normal lineup might look like on the first (and many thereafter) lineup card.

Chicago Cubs: The new top of the order for the North Siders

Much has been made of the failures of any and all comers occupying the leadoff spot in the Cubs lineup since Dexter Fowler left for St. Louis. Basically none of the talk was in the wrong. The leadoff spot has been atrocious for the Cubs over the past three seasons despite a ton of different guys trying their hand for former skipper, Joe Maddon.

Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, as well as others all tried their hand at least once or twice. Other than Rizzo, no one really had any success there, despite success in other places in the batting order. It seems a new curse formed over the leadoff spot as soon as the billy goat and Bartman curses were lifted after 2016.

In 2020, Ross has already come out and said he likes the idea of putting Kris Bryant there to set the table, with Bryzzo buddy Rizzo right behind him in the two-hole. While this move is a bit unorthodox, the Cubs still don’t have a prototypical leadoff guy, and no sign of one coming in the near future.

The first-year skipper figures you put the guy with the best OBP (career .385) in the top spot and let the chips fall where they may. Stack another great OBP (career .373 and .405 last season) guy right behind him, and you’ve put a ton of pressure on the other pitcher to start the game. To paraphrase from the Fowler days, if they go, the Cubs (we) will go.

Chicago Cubs: Which passionate righty will be in the three hole?

Not only have you given the pitcher a tough matchup right out of the gates with arguably the two toughest outs in the lineup 1-2, you’ve already set up your left-right structure in the order. While there might be some philosophical changes to that set up with the new reliever rules, look for Ross to continue the back-and-forth to start the season. The next logical guy in the three-hole is Javier Baez, but you certainly could make an argument for putting Willson Contreras next as well.

Generally and historically, the three spot has been the best hitter on the team, but in recent years, the two spot has taken over that role with more managers opting to give their best players more at bats over the course of the season by bumping that guy up one spot. Baez makes a ton of sense in the three spot as he’s protected between Rizzo and another lefty masher (we’ll get to that later), and his speed and ability to drive runs in plays well after the two OBP guys in front of him. He is a bit of a free swinger, however, so there are some whose philosophy on lineup construction might push him back to the 5 spot.

If you’re in that category, it probably means you’d rather have Contreras in the three hole, opting for a better and more patient overall hitter. Contreras owns a .350 career OBP to the lifetime OBP of Baez at .310. Not that Baez isn’t clutch and great in his own right, but if you’re choosing to stack OBP at the top, Contreras makes a lot of sense as well. You also get him a guaranteed at-bat before he’s gotta put his gear back on if the Cubs are on the road. Silly thing I know, but the new manager was a catcher. For the sake of projecting the real lineup, Baez will probably be the guy in the three hole.

Chicago Cubs: Get used to this guy cleaning things up in 2020

If you weren’t paying attention in 2019, Kyle Schwarber absolutely torched baseballs for the better part of the season. Yes, you read that correctly. While his numbers didn’t always reflect the way he was squaring up the ball, his exit velocity and BABIP numbers certainly back up the narrative. For the first couple months of the season, Schwarber was hammering balls and getting, well… unlucky.

In July and August, the results started backing up the idea that this guy was what most Cubs fans always thought he was- a slugger who could just flat out hit. After annihilating National League pitching in the second half of 2019 to the tune of a .280/.366/.631 slash line, Schwarber will be in the clean-up spot of the Cubs lineup.

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As noted earlier, he’ll be sandwiched by two passionate righties, with Contreras presumably following him in the lineup in the five hole. That means the first five spots in the Cubs lineup all stack up as intimidating and dangerous for opposing pitchers- so much so that any of them could bat third in the lineup, be All-Stars, or even MVP-type candidates. If you look at their track record, all of these guys have had stretches of dominance- just imagine and hope for them doing it all at the same time.

In the sixth spot, my projection is for the DH or catcher to occupy the spot – that catcher/DH being Victor Caratini. With the way Caratini played while healthy last season, there’s no better guy to pop in this spot. A switch-hitter who started off the 2019 campaign on fire before a broken wrist sidelined him, Caratini has the pop and patience to extend the parade of good Cubs hitters in the lineup.