Chicago Cubs: How much in-prime Anthony Rizzo remains?

Chicago Cubs: Factors on Rizzo’s future

Little has alarmed Cubs fans to indicate Rizzo is slowing down in terms of production. Both his average and on-base last year were career-highs. One could point at the slight drop in home run production, but it was not an overall drastic. Rizzo is a guy who will not sell out and sacrifice all-or-nothing home run swings for choking up and protecting the plate in certain counts.

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Legitimate concerns regarding Rizzo’s future mainly lie within his recent health issues. He has yet to miss something drastic like 80+ games, but we have seen him experience back issues the past few seasons.

So far, they have been a small nagging, but a tall guy with a bad back will naturally see it become more of a nuisance as time goes on. The ankle injury he suffered last year was concerning for the time, but less now since it was a sprain and a one-time incident.

Going back to his actual age, it is worth noting he will turn 31 this coming August. Again this is not old, but he is well past being a young player. This is like the “middle age” for baseball players. For guys like Rizzo, who are better than many but not quite an all-time high level, it is typically the part of their careers where they’ve established who they are and can still play at their ceiling but not exceed it.

Chicago Cubs: So how many years will Rizzo have in his prime?

We cannot know for sure right now, but based on the factors listed, it is reasonable to think Rizzo can put up his typical production numbers a good 2-3 more years. This does not mean after this time, he will potentially just fall off a cliff, but games played and stat lines might start to dip a little. Even if he does slip slightly, he will still likely be a valuable player in the following years, just not at his usual level.

The number of years predicted might seem low based on his talent level, but again, the back issues. More games could be missed, and the swing might be affected by it to a degree. What could be very interesting is seeing if the National League adopts a DH rule, which could allow Rizzo to play the field less. Fielding is a significant strength of his, but putting less stress on his back could help prolong his career.

Say in 2021 (just because we are so uncertain of 2020 right now) the Cubs give Rizzo a five-year extension. He would be under contract until he is 36 years old, which for most players, regardless of health history, is when prime years are either right at the end or past. Rizzo deserves to be a Cub the rest of his career, but at least a five-year deal would secure the remaining top-years he has left.

This franchise has been so fortunate to have Anthony Rizzo as their leader. Trading for him was one of the best deals in franchise history. Hopefully, he gives us many more years of production and more shiny trophies. Regardless of what he does in the future, his legacy is set in stone.