Chicago Cubs: Three bold predictions for the upcoming season
We’re already a week into March, as Opening Day draws nearer. Here are three bold predictions for the Chicago Cubs to get you ready for the season.
Despite the fact I haven’t been able to watch much Chicago Cubs baseball yet this spring, I’ve definitely got the itch. Spring is in the air here in Chicagoland, with temperatures in the 50s of late – something I’m thankful for as I work through my list of new homeowner projects.
Paint guest rooms, change locks, call and set up utilities, do yard work – you know, all the things that go into making a house a home. But anyway. Back to baseball. There’s no telling which way the season will go for the Cubs, but the energy around the team feels like it did early on in the Joe Maddon era, rather than the tired, sluggish team we saw the last two years.
Will this group hone in under first-year manager David Ross and pursue another World Series title before they all go their separate ways in free agency after next season? That’s the plan – and the hope – for Theo Epstein and the front office. He’s already made it clear: it’s Fall Classic or fire sale for his club in 2020.
I definitely think Chicago will contend for a postseason berth – but the pitching staff will have to step up for a shot at anything more. With all that in mind, here are a few bold predictions that could play out this season on the North Side.
Chicago Cubs: Kimbrel makes the All-Star team; then gets traded
Last summer, Epstein shelled out a three-year, $43 million deal to land one of the game’s best closers in Craig Kimbrel. The Cubs had a dire need in the back end of the bullpen and, relatively speaking, landed the right-hander on a steal of a deal.
Well, that’s what we thought when it all went down.
Whether it was the irregular timing, accelerated ramp-up or a continuance of underlying trends from his time in Boston, Kimbrel was never ‘on’ for Chicago. He struggled – badly – putting up the worst numbers of his big league career. His control was lackluster (5.2 BB/9), his velocity was down and batters made him pay dearly (3.9 HR/9, 9.1 H/9).
We’re going to chalk it up to ramping up in the middle of the year. Pitchers are, as we all know, routine-driven individuals so there’s little doubt this impacted Kimbrel in 2019. But with a regular offseason and spring training under his belt, look for Kimbrel to not only bounce back – but tap into the analytics and tutelage of pitching coach Tommy Hottovy to get back to elite status.
Kimbrel will make the All-Star team after anchoring the Cubs bullpen in the first half. But Epstein will see the writing on the wall, knowing his team is a postseason contender, but not a legitimate threat to win it all. He’ll trade the bearded hurler back to the team that drafted him, the Atlanta Braves, in exchange for young pitching talent.
Chicago Cubs: Yelich extension hurts the Cubs in more ways than one
With the Cubs stuck in between winning a title and completely rebuilding, Epstein will have to press exactly the right buttons and pull the proper levels ahead of this year’s trade deadline.
He’ll wind up trading Kris Bryant – and the return won’t be enough to satiate Cubs fans, either. That won’t be the only move Chicago makes, as Jose Quintana joins a contender for the stretch run. That brings us to the news that will make fans happy – a contract extension with Willson Contreras.
The two-time All-Star showed up to camp looking leaner than in the past, ready to put his lingering leg issues behind him. The result will be a monster year where he flirts with the possibility of receiving votes in the NL MVP race at season’s end. Thankfully, the front office will capitalize before this, locking him up to a long-term extension as the center piece of the next core.
The future of Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez will, unfortunately, not be decided till season’s end. It’s hard to envision a Cubs team without Rizzo at first base, but you never know. I still think the two sides figure it out.
Why Contreras gets the extension is the interesting part. In the wake of Christian Yelich‘s deal with Milwaukee, the Cubs and Baez wind up further apart than ever when it comes to numbers and talks are tabled. Discussions will continue next offseason, but he finds himself testing the waters of free agency come 2021.
Chicago Cubs: The breakout continues for the fan favorite slugger
Let’s be clear. What Nicholas Castellanos brought to the table last summer was nothing short of incredible. The slugging outfielder took a serious run at some long-standing records with the stick and fell just short of eclipsing 60 doubles, something that hasn’t been done since 1936.
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All the attention centered on Castellanos and whether or not he could almost singlehandedly push Chicago to the postseason for the fifth consecutive season. His efforts came up short, despite a .321/.356/.646 line over the season’s final 51 contests. But while we talked incessantly about Castellanos, a fellow outfielder was making waves of his own.
Since he was drafted, Kyle Schwarber has been lauded as a professional hitter. The guy who can work counts and make pitchers sweat just as easily as he can turn on a pitch and drive it 450-plus feet. Taking him as high as they did in the draft, the Cubs were betting heavily on his bat playing at a high level and last season, we saw that begin to take shape.
Believe it or not, Schwarber was actually better than Castellanos as the season drew down – ranking as one of the most valuable players in all of baseball in the second half. So what can he do for an encore? Build on that success and sustain it over the course of an entire season, becoming an anchor in the order alongside Contreras.
His efforts in 2020 culminate in his first All-Star selection and he finishes third in National League MVP voting, trailing the award’s two most recent winners, Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. He eclipses the 45-homer mark for the first time in his career, as well as the 100-RBI mark. But most importantly, he boosts his OBP to the Rizzo and Bryant-like .400 range, adding another element to his already-strong game.