Chicago Cubs: A Spring Training preview for the NL Central

Spring Training is here, as Chicago Cubs camp opens on Wednesday. With that, we look at each of the five National League Central teams.

Chicago Cubs spring training camp is set to open on Wednesday. After months of analysis about what the Cubs did or didn’t do this offseason, including lots of speculation regarding a possible Kris Bryant trade, we’re finally going to see some on-the-field action.

As we know, the Cubs didn’t do much this offseason, hampered largely by luxury tax concerns. Because of that, they won’t be getting much love when many websites start to make their preseason predictions for the 2020 season. There’s reason to be skeptical about the Cubs this year under new manager David Ross: The outfield and second base situations are up in the air, the starting rotation isn’t inspiring anyone, and the bullpen is full of question marks.

What should give Cubs fans optimism about the 2020 season is that the National League Central division doesn’t have a dominant team, at least looking at the rosters on paper. The division’s defending champions, the St. Louis Cardinals, didn’t do much this offseason, either, while the division’s other playoff team from a year ago, the Milwaukee Brewers, made some changes but don’t appear to be as strong as they were at the end of last season.

The division’s most active team this offseason was the Cincinnati Reds, though they’ve been under .500 for several years in a row and still have a lot to prove. Then there’s the Pittsburgh Pirates, the only team that figures to have no realistic chance to win the NL Central this year.

As teams get set to take the field in Florida and Arizona, let’s take a look at the state of each of the five NL Central teams, going in order by last year’s win total.

Chicago Cubs: St. Louis Cardinals

In 2019, the St. Louis Cardinals hovered around the .500 mark for much of the year before getting hot towards the end of the season and taking the National League Central with a 91-71 mark. One highlight of that run was a four-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in September, a series in which the road team took all four games by one run. The Cardinals then beat the Atlanta Braves in the Division Series before losing to the Nationals in the NLCS.

For a team that is considered a contender but that also had plenty of room for improvement, the Cardinals didn’t do much this offseason. They are losing outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Braves via free agency, while they also traded away Jose Martinez and got prized pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore from the Tampa Bay Rays.

Other than that, they are going mostly with the status quo in 2020. They’re set at most positions, as the outfield looks like it will be Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dexter Fowler. The Cardinals will have to try to get Tommy Edman some at-bats again this season after the 24-year-old put up an .850 OPS and a 3.8 WAR in just 92 games last year. He could get some time in the outfield, or he could take playing time away from the up-and-down veteran Matt Carpenter at third.

The rotation is headlined by two youngsters, Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, who were both impressive in 2019. Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright also return to the rotation, while it appears that the team will give Carlos Martinez a chance to move from the closer’s role back into a starter’s spot.

The Cardinals are not an elite team, but they have a solid major leaguer at almost every position. With no elite NL Central team, it looks like they will be favored to repeat.

Chicago Cubs: Chicago Cubs

After missing the playoffs for the first time in five years in 2019, the Chicago Cubs and manager Joe Maddon parted ways, leading the way for former catcher David Ross to take the reins. Ross inherits a team that still has a lot of star power but also has some holes.

Most of the big names are returning: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant (despite all the trade rumors), Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Heyward. Second base and center field remain unsettled. At second, Nico Hoerner might get a shot as a rookie, yet the team hasn’t brought in a veteran to compete for the job. Steven Souza Jr. came in to add to the outfield depth, though he didn’t play in 2019. There still is hope that Albert Almora Jr. and/or Ian Happ can earn some more playing time with a good spring.

On the mound, the first four in the rotation return in Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, and Jose Quintana. It’s a decent if not impressive rotation; the team will be banking largely on the hope that Darvish’s tremendous second half of 2019 was no fluke. The fifth spot is still wide open, though Tyler Chatwood appears to have the inside track. The bullpen is a big question mark, with lots of innings up for grabs this spring. The team lost Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, Pedro Strop, and David Phelps while making only minor additions. Then there’s Craig Kimbrel, who was a disaster in his first year as the Cubs’ closer in 2019.

It’s conceivable that enough could go right for the Cubs in 2020 that they could win the division. It’s also conceivable that the season could be a disaster. Ross remains a big wild card. Will he bring a fresh perspective that the team needs to whip them back into their pre-2019 shape? Or is his hiring just delaying the inevitable decline of this once promising young core?

Chicago Cubs: Cincinnati Reds

After six straight losing seasons, the Cincinnati Reds appear ready to pounce. The Reds are trying to take advantage of a wide-open NL Central this offseason by being the most active team in the division. They’ve made several big additions; will it lead to the team’s first playoff berth since 2013?

Despite making a lot of additions on offense, the Reds’ pitching was the team’s strength in 2019. The team is bringing back four solid starting pitchers in Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, and Anthony DeSclafani, while they also brought in Wade Miley to fill out the rotation. Gray is coming off a tremendous season, while Castillo was also solid in 2019; Bauer is a bit of a question mark after he struggled after coming over via trade during the 2019 season. The bullpen was also good in 2020, and the team has added longtime Cubs setup man Pedro Strop to help.

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The offense overall was a bit disappointing in 2019, but the team has overhauled their lineup around stars Joey Votto (who had a down year in 2019) and Eugenio Suarez. Mike Moustakas comes over from the division rival Brewers, though it will be interesting to see how he handles the full-time move to second base with Suarez firmly in at third. Nicholas Castellanos, who starred for the Cubs late last year, figures to add a lot to the offense, while the team also brought in Shogo Akiyama for outfield depth. They’ll also have a full season of Freddy Galvis at short.

Whenever a team tries to make a big jump forward during the offseason like the Reds have, there’s always a question of how much exactly will go right and whether the moves were enough to make that jump into contention. The Reds will be relying on a lot of veterans in 2020; this is not a typical rebuild where the team built up their farm system. Clearly, they believe the time is right in a mediocre NL Central.

Chicago Cubs: Pittsburgh Pirates

For the other four teams that we’ve mentioned, though they all have flaws, there is at least some hope that each team can compete for the NL Central title. For first year manager Derek Shelton and the Pittsburgh Pirates, however, there’s not much reason to be optimistic.

Looking at the offense, there are some good players that are coming back from 2019. At age 26, Josh Bell had a breakthrough year at first base and has become a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter. Though the rest of the lineup lacks firepower, there are some good hitters. Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman both impressed last year, batting over .300. Adam Frazier also showed the ability to be a productive player at second base, while Colin Moran quietly drove in 80 at the hot corner. The team will badly miss Starling Marte, who was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Gregory Polanco has battled injuries and has yet to put it all together; could it finally happen in 2020?

So, the Pirates could potentially score some runs, but the starting rotation doesn’t look too promising. Right now, Joe Musgrove looks to be far and away their ace; last year, he gave the Pirates 31 starts and posted a 4.44 ERA. Trevor Williams, Steven Brault, and Chris Archer all return, though they all posted an ERA over 5.00 in 2019. With Felipe Vazquez‘s legal troubles, the team will need a new closer; right now, it looks like Keone Kela will be the guy.

The Pirates have shied away from the term “rebuild” this offseason, though given that they are likely facing a last-place finish in the division, it will be interesting to see whether they try to trade any of their young players to build up the minor league system. Bell would be far and away their biggest chip if that happens, though there’s been little indication that the team plans on shopping him this year.