Chicago Cubs: Three things the 2020 ZiPS predictions will get wrong

The Chicago Cubs’ 2020 ZiPS predictions came out on Thursday. They were conservative with many picks, but they are underestimating some key guys.

On Thursday, FanGraphs.com released its annual ZiPS projections for the Chicago Cubs, giving their predictions on what they think will happen with each player on the 2020 team. Click here to read the article to see everything for yourself.

The first sentence sums up well how many are feeling right now: “It’s hard to feel much excitement about the Cubs.” This part isn’t much of a surprise; indeed, other predictions are coming out about the 2020 season right now that isn’t exactly bullish on the Cubs.

Neither are the majority of the predictions that are out for the big-name players much of a surprise: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Heyward are all about where we would expect them to be. One player that ZiPS is high on for 2020 is Ian Happ, who they project will get 552 plate appearances and post a 102 OPS+.

The rotation is about where we would expect as well, at least in the first four slots. Kyle Hendricks is projected to have another solid season. Yu Darvish is expected to pick up where he left off in the second half of 2019, and Jon Lester and Jose Quintana again are predicted to be still decent starters but shells of their former selves.

Again, there weren’t a ton of surprises in these predictions. Yet I have identified three areas in which I believe the ZiPS projections are underestimating the Chicago Cubs. Here we look at Willson Contreras, Craig Kimbrel, and the fifth starter’s spot.

Chicago Cubs: The team should get more from the closer

Another relative surprise from these projections is that closer Craig Kimbrel isn’t getting a whole lot of respect, either. I understand that he’s coming off a 2019 season that was a total disaster. I also know that the safe projection is to put him somewhere in between what he did last year and what we’re more used to seeing throughout his career.

Still, the 3.40 ERA they have him at would tie for what is by far the second-highest of his career, in 2016 with the Red Sox (the highest, of course, being last year’s 6.53). Yet what’s even more discouraging is that they are predicting that he will only give the team 43 2/3 innings. Before last year, the right-hander had given his team at least 53 innings every year since 2011.

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Kimbrel figures to be with the team all year. What are they predicting so few innings for? Is he going to get hurt again? Is the team going to have that few of closing opportunities? Whatever happens, as long as Kimbrel stays healthy, he will quickly fly by that innings total. Besides, while I don’t think Kimbrel will be as dominant as he was years ago, I think he’ll end up with a better ERA than 3.40.

It’s because of all this that I was confused by the web site’s explanation of their prediction: “ZiPS is rather optimistic about Craig Kimbrel; hopefully a healthier season without an odd stint of unemployment will at least get him back to his Boston form.” It doesn’t seem to me like they were optimistic at all. If Kimbrel is healthy and has a full campaign with the Cubs, there’s plenty of reason to believe he can do better more than what ZiPS is projecting. The team certainly needs him to.

Chicago Cubs: The fifth starter spot won’t be that bad

One of the most exciting battles coming into spring training for the Cubs in 2020 will be the fifth starting rotation spot. It appears that Tyler Chatwood and Alec Mills are two of the top candidates. The 30-year-old Chatwood had a nice 2019 in swing duty, posting a 3.76 ERA after a miserable 2018. Alec Mills, meanwhile, showed some potential down the stretch as a possible fifth starter or bullpen arm.

ZiPS isn’t high on either of these two. At one point, the article reads, “The fifth starter position is a concern, one the Cubs have done little to address. Tyler Chatwood is a walking heartburn machine, and Alec Mills isn’t likely to be any better.”

Chatwood is projected to regress significantly. After making five starts in 2019, ZiPS has him at 14 starts (30 games total) in 2020 with a 4.50 ERA. Again, this is “in the middle” between his 2018 and 2019 numbers, but I think if used correctly that Chatwood will be closer to 2019 in 2020.

What I don’t understand is the weak outlook on Mills; after posting a 2.75 ERA in 36 innings in 2019, ZiPS has him at 4.88 ERA over a full season. This includes 125 innings and 21 starts. I just don’t think there’s enough of a track record with Mills to suggest that his ERA will be that high. It very well could be, but I think if given a chance, that Mills will do better than that either as a fifth starter or out of the bullpen.

Of course, there are other options; Jharel Cotton is another guy who will get a look for the fifth spot. I think there are enough options for a competition that the fifth spot won’t be as bad as FanGraphs is making it sound.