Cubs: Five things that must happen for a World Series in 2020

With another slow offseason and zero exciting signings for a second straight offseason, it’s still possible for the Cubs to make a postseason push if certain breaks go their way.

To make it to the postseason, MLB and teams, including the Chicago Cubs, need to have a combination of quality players, great performance and good health throughout 162 games. That much comes as no surprise to anyone. To make it to the World Series, you need to do the things mentioned above and get a little lucky once you punch your ticket to the dance in October. Given what happened in 2015, 2016, and 2017, the Cubs have a pretty good understanding of each piece of that equation.

However, since losing to the Dodgers in the 2017 NLCS, the Cubs have failed to win a postseason game and have been unable even to get themselves to a postseason series. Add in a couple of lame offseasons, some bad health, and an inability to spend money? All of a sudden, it’s clear that lady luck needs to be on the Cubs side if they want to take a mostly unchanged position player group back to the postseason and, ultimately, win the 2020 World Series.

How do they do this, and what needs to go right, you ask? For starters, the health, performance, and talent they possess need to make its way to center stage on Wrigley Field. Sprinkle in a little luck and some progression in the right places, and they may be able to squeak out an NL Central title. There are, however, a few must-haves that need to occur if the Cubs are serious about the playoffs and a World Series appearance under new manager, David Ross.

Chicago Cubs: Schwarbs needs to take many jogs in 2020

Last spring, I wrote an article that many probably laughed at, and still fewer took seriously. And, despite its seeming absurdity and farcical nature to the masses, I stand by it. While Kyle Schwarber did not win the NL MVP in 2019, it’s entirely possible he would have won the second half MVP if there were such a thing.

Don’t believe me?

Check these stats out: in the final 56 games of the season starting with Kyle Schwarber Day in Milwaukee on July 28, Schwarber put up a .304/.395/.663 slash line, led the National League with a .359 ISO (isolated slugging), was second with a 167 wRC+, and fourth with 45 RBI all while ranking only 45th with 210 PA over that span.

Not only did Schwarber actually eclipse the nuclear Nicholas Castellanos in performance after Castellanos came over from Detroit, but he was also doing it all season long even though some of you didn’t notice. Cursed by the modern game and its dastardly shift, Schwarber continually annihilated balls right at people throughout the first half of the season.

As all peripheral and advanced stats pointed towards Schwarber breaking through with monster numbers at some point, it finally happened for good at the end of July, and Cubs fans got a taste of what they had seen in inconsistent patches since Schwarber’s debut in 2015.

Maybe it was Joe Maddon finally allowing him to hit lefties that gave him the confidence. Perhaps it was his ability to make adjustments that finally kicked in permanently. Maybe luck just smiled at the Schwarbino, and he took it and ran. Or, as some of us (including Theo Epstein) have thought since 2015 while watching his approach and the way the ball comes off his bat, maybe he’s just an excellent hitter who can put a hurting on the baseball.

If Schwarber’s 2019 season exit velocity of 94.5 mph (8th best in baseball) was any indication, he’s going to be good and hit the ball really hard again in 2020. Maybe I was just a year early…

Chicago Cubs: Big Jon needs to have a big year

Jon Lester needs no introduction, and he certainly has nothing left to prove to anyone in this game. However, knowing the kind of competitor that Lester is between the lines, there’s no way he wants to go out as mediocre or anything less than great. And, after a very mediocre 13-10 season in which he posted a 4.46 ERA and logged just 171 IP, you can guarantee that Lester will be better this season.

More than just his need to get better and compete, Lester’s stats throughout his career also tell the tale of an even year push and an odd-year curse that bodes well for 2020 (97-51 in even years, 82-55 in odd ones). This may or may not speak to Lester’s desire and ability to work on his weaknesses and get back to what makes him great, but it is a trend to keep in mind and watch during the season.

Don’t be surprised if Lester puts up a year that looks a lot like his 2018 season- an excellent 18-6 record with a 3.32 ERA despite a 4.39 FIP that suggests Lester fared better than he should have. Lester has a way of exceeding expectations, leaving runners on base, and bearing down when he has to so that FIP is no surprise whenever Lester can outperform that number.

Chicago Cubs: Happ needs to realize his potential

Ian Happ is a bit of an enigma as a baseball player, a Chicago Cub, and a person. A man who has looked the part and has all the makings of an MLB All-Star at times, yet also a guy who was demoted to the Minor Leagues for 99 games in 2019, there is no telling what kind of year Happ might have in 2020. The guy could hit 30 bombs for the big league Cubs, or he could ride around on a bus for Iowa for part of the season.

One of the developmental issues for Happ (and some other Cubs for that matter) might be the fact that the Cubs were so good the past five seasons. They didn’t have time and innings to give to prospects and young players to work through their struggles, see lefties and righties, and learn new positions on the fly in the big leagues.

The Cubs and Joe Maddon didn’t and couldn’t have much patience for lackluster results on the big league level, regardless of talent or potential. Heck, even Schwarber, a guy who has the same 110 career home runs as Aaron Judge and is a full year younger than Judge, spent extended time in Iowa as well.

Happ has always had a proclivity for the strikeout, but he also walks a ton and has a discerning eye at the plate when right. If he can harness that ability to take pitches while limiting what he swings at, you could see the guy who finished the 2019 campaign on a bigger tear than Schwarber or Castellanos.

In September, Happ slashed a robust .311/.348/.672 while hitting six home runs and knocking in 17. If that doesn’t give fans some kind of optimism given the way the season ended, I don’t know will. One thing for certain- no disrespect to Albert Almora, but the Cubs need Happ to step into an everyday role and gain some consistency finally.

Chicago Cubs: This man has to be your starting second baseman

There has been a lot of talk about where Nico Hoerner should start the season. Let’s put that to bed right now, and right here- Hoerner belongs in Milwaukee on March 26. Regardless of “being ready” or needing some more “seasoning,” the Cubs have no one better equipped to play second base regularly right now. Despite options galore at the keystone, Hoerner is the most talented and best overall option at 22 years of age.

This spring, when Javier Baez is playing shortstop in Mesa, pay close attention to who his partner is up the middle. My guess and hope are that it will be Hoerner if the Cubs plan on trying to win ballgames this season. Sure, they could go with David Bote, Robel Garcia, Ian Happ, or even the dazzling Daniel Descalso, but really? While Happ may be a mainstay in the lineup in the outfield and Bote might be a nice fill-in around the infield, none of those guys can hold a candle to Hoerner’s instincts, infield prowess, make-up, or all-around ability to handle the stick.

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There has been talk about moving Hoerner to centerfield. Still, unless he can play that even better than second base, that seems to be a stretch, especially when you have someone like Ian Happ to stick out there while preserving a better infielder like Hoerner to play in the infield.

As evidenced by his late-season call-up and performance, Hoerner certainly will not be intimidated by the moment. His 20 games late in the season produced 13 runs, 17 RBI, three bombs, and after an offseason to prepare and digest how he was attacked after his nuclear start in the bigs; there’s no doubt he’ll be even more prepared this spring.

Even though Hoerner did struggle against big-league pitching to close the season after a hot start in his debut week, his fielding was as advertised, and his pop may have exceeded expectations. With only three home runs across 288 at-bats in the minors during the 2019 season, Hoerner swatted three in only 78 at-bats with the big league club. If he’s able to exceed expectations or give them exactly what they’re expecting, 2020 will be an excellent year for the Cubs second baseman.