Chicago Cubs: Prospects will be likely trade pieces, not core players
With four prospects in MLB Pipeline’s 2020 Top 100 rankings, the Chicago Cubs could once again look to the farm system in trades this season.
Nico Hoerner (51st), left-hander Brailyn Marquez (68th), outfielder Brennen Davis (78th) and catcher Miguel Amaya (95th) earned spots in the annual MLB Pipeline Top 100 rankings. With the Cubs facing a competitive window that’s nearing its end, it’s not the core that will be disassembled, but this group of young prospects.
Theo Epstein has done it before. Let’s look at the last time the Cubs had that many prospects in the top 100. That was four years ago when Ian Happ (21st), Eloy Jimenez (23rd), Albert Almora (82nd), Dylan Cease (98th) and Jeimer Candelario (100th) all held spots in the Cubs system. Three of them have since been moved in trades.
What about all the rampant and rabid trade noise about Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber and others? What about all this talk about a reckoning, how no one is untouchable, how they are willing to listen to any offers? What about all the speculation about trading from the core for prospects to rebuild the farm?
Not to mention all the worry about losing the core in two years to free agency, how they can’t keep them all, how once Bryant’s grievance settled he’s gone.
Chicago Cubs: All the trade talk is just that – talk
Yet, nothing. Nada. Zip. Zero. Theo hasn’t come close to moving any of the core. But needs remain in center field, second base, the bench and the one spot in the batting order. We all know this. Theo knows this.
So if they are staying in win-now mode, not moving any of the core and not signing any significant free agents, what’s left? Logically, ultimately, the prospects in the system.
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But should Theo trade from this pool of prospect talent? In 2017, Epstein traded Cease and Jimenez to the White Sox for Jose Quintana.
Since then Q has been a solid number four starter who takes the ball every five games, rarely missing a start. But he’s just turned 31, is in the last year of his contract and never really lived up to the potential the Cubs saw in his 2016 All-Star season. That year he pitched to a 3.20 ERA, a 1.163 WHIP and came in 10th in American League Cy Young voting.
As for Cease, he got off to a rocky start when he came up in July last season, but his last four games saw him post a 3.00 ERA and 1.333 WHIP. He reached 12 Ks per nine innings and gave up just two home runs compared to seven the previous four games.
Jimenez started off solid enough, slumped in mid-season, then posted a .308/.342/.575 slash and .917 OPS in August and September. Both Cease and Jimenez will be essential pieces to the quickly rising 2020 White Sox.
Chicago Cubs: Team could gamble on their prospects instead
The other prospect piece was Candelario who went to the Tigers for left-hander Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila. This trade is less impactful so far, as Candelario has struggled his last two seasons in Detroit. Wilson struggled over two seasons in Chicago and left in free agency, and Avila also left as a free agent.
So it’s a mixed bag of results. Both Almora and Happ struggled mightily to break out at the big league level. Jimenez and Cease did as well and Candelario has just disappeared. What’s to say any of the current four in the top 100 won’t struggle just much?
But this year I’m betting against it, even with the well-discussed needs. Amaya is only 20 and hasn’t played above High-A ball, Davis is also 20 had hasn’t played above Single-A ball, Hoerner was brought up from Double-A and with fewer than 400 plate appearances needs more time.
As for Marquez, he just projects too high to let him go. We have no idea if one of these guys is another Candelario, or just maybe another Gleyber Torres, and it’s not a risk worth taking.