Chicago Cubs: Early predictions for the starting rotation
The Chicago Cubs starting rotation as of right now seems pretty set 1-4 unless there is a change. What will we see from this group in 2020?
One thing the Chicago Cubs have had for a number of years now is a really good rotation – at least on paper. Unfortunately as a whole they have not lived up to the hype or expectations in recent seasons for various reasons including: injury, age or just not playing to their expected level. Regardless the rotation has been at the very least decent compared to the rest of the league.
Right now (unless an unexpected trade happens) the rotation to start 2020 looks pretty much the same as 2019 minus Cole Hamels, who is now a member of the Atlanta Braves. We still have Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish. The fifth spot is what is really up for grabs and still possibly open to make a move this offseason. Current options on the roster as listed on their MLB depth chart include: Tyler Chatwood, Alec Mills, Adbert Alzolay and Colin Rea. Spring Training could be the determining factor for that opening week five-guy.
Predicting what a pitcher does can be tricky, especially when they are getting older and the game has changed to such a power-swing offensive style. Right now there are a lot of “if” factors regarding the potential success of the Cubs rotation, but here are some early predictions on how they can perform.
Chicago Cubs: Lester hoping to put the final touch on brilliant run
It is hard to believe Jon Lester signed with the Cubs five years ago and will be entering the final guaranteed year of his contract. He has a team option in 2021 worth $25 million, but right now it doesn’t look likely the team will pick it up.
The option could vest, in theory – but Lester would need to eclipse 200 innings, something he hasn’t done since 2016. Everything he has done since leading the team to a World Series title has been gravy on the deal, including an All-Star appearance in 2018.
So what is left in the tank for ole’ Jonny?
Probably not much, but enough to at least pass by. At age 36 we have seen the slow decline of the three-time World Series champion the past several years. Last year he sported a 4.46 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 1.5 WHIP, 10.7 H/9, 8.7 K/9, 2.7 H/9 and a 2.8 fWAR in 171 2/3 innings. His fWAR last year was higher than that of 2018 as were his strikeout numbers and his FIP was lower, but the WHIP was a career-worst in seasons which he made 30+ starts. Furthermore, his H/9 was a overall career-high.
Overall these numbers are not horrible, but they are not what in-prime Lester did for the Red Sox and early Cubs days. This really can just be explained by aging and miles on the arm. In 14 years he has 2,537 2/3 innings under his belt which does not even count the additional 154 postseason innings. At this point we cannot expect the same Lester, but we can hope for a decent one. Regardless his contract was 100 percent worth it.
2020 prediction: 4.29 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 1.5 WHIP, 161 K, 60 BB, 31 starts, 179 innings
Chicago Cubs: This is the guy you trust every time he takes the ball
Every time Kyle Hendricks gets off to a slow start, some people wonder if he still has it in him. Then by the end of the year he proves he is one of the most underrated pitchers in the National League.
Last season he made 30 starts and pitched to a 3.46 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 4.1 fWAR. That 1.6 BB/9 was a career-low and the first time he walked less than 40 batters in a season which he made at least 24 starts.
He was accomplishing this all with his groundball rate slightly lower (41.3 percent) than his overall career rate of 47.5 percent. Also worth noting his FIP was the lowest he has put up since his 3.20 in 2016.
At the age of 30 he has plenty left in the tank and little doubt he can continue it. While his command has been superb throughout his career, expect the walks to go up a wee bit but still at a very good level. Most other numbers should hover around his typical stats if he pitches like he normally does.
2020 prediction: 3.43 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 159 K, 45 BB, 32 starts, 191 innings
Chicago Cubs: ‘Boo’ turn to ‘Yu’ among the Wrigley faithful
One thing is for certain, Yu Darvish is incredibly talented. A lot went wrong in 2018 and 2019 did not get off to a great start either. But Darvish reminded everyone why the Cubs game him a six-year, $126 million deal in 2019.
Darvish put up a 2.76 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 118 K, 7 BB, and .199/.228/.384 slash against in 13 starts in the second half. His 2.8 BB/9 on the season was after walking 49 batters in his first 97 innings on the year.
Also worth noting his ERA and WHIP in his 16 road starts in 2019 was 3.09 and 1.01. One could say “the second half was flukey,” but the man came to the Cubs with a career 3.42 ERA, 3.30 FIP and 11.0 K/9 in 131 starts. His resume is that of an All-Star hurler.
The slow start in 2019 could be attributed to the fact that he was returning from the 2018 injuries and was not going to be 100 percent. He also has settled in well as a Cub the past year and has seemingly put the demons of the 2017 World Series behind him for good. If he is healthy and locked in, we can expect some good things from Mr. Darvish.
2020 Prediction: 3.66 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.2 WHIP, 227 K, 64 BB, 31 starts, 186 innings
Chicago Cubs: A solid starter at a palatable price
There is no doubt that the tenure of Jose Quintana on the North Side has been overall disappointing. The frustration has been escalated by what the team gave to the White Sox in the trade which brought the veteran lefty across town back in 2017, but we have to look at Quintana himself apart from that.
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Last season was for Quintana was odd. His 4.68 ERA was a career-high and his 171 innings pitched was a career-low since his rookie year. The end of the season really blew up his overall numbers as he saw a .402 average against and .447 BABIP against in September. He still made 30+ starts and put up a 3.5 fWAR. One stat that really stands out is the 3.80 FIP which was an 0.88 difference from his ERA.
Quintana’s second-half FIP of 3.53 vs 5.40 ERA (70 innings) is something everyone should take note of. He was not All-Star level in 2019 but he had some stretches where he pitched better than the box score. Kind of hard when you are not a huge swing-and-miss guy who pitched in front of a sloppy defense last year.
The Quintana that pitched for the White Sox is probably not coming back, which is a bummer. That does not mean we cannot get productive Q in 2020. With hopefully a defense that plays better this coming year and commanding the strike zone like he did in 2019 (2.4 BB/9) vs. 2018 (3.5 BB/9) we can see a decent season from him.
2020 Prediction: 4.08 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.3 WHIP, 162 K, 54 BB, 31 starts, 184 innings
The Cubs are going to need their rotation to step up completely in 2020 if they want a shot at the postseason. The five-starter role will be an interesting one because there are interesting candidates on the roster even if no moves are made.