Cubs Rumors: So let’s talk about these Nolan Arenado trade rumors

Chicago Cubs: Contreras and a contract headed to the Rockies?

So here’s the latest. Jeff Passan is reporting the Cubs have at least kicked the tires on Arenado – and here’s how such a deal might go down.

The Cubs would make sense if they move Bryant. They are not primed for some sort of a rebuild as much as a refresh or reboot — an always-difficult needle to thread, particularly if they hope to dip under the luxury-tax threshold. One source characterized the Cubs as doing due diligence, as they’ve done throughout the winter with myriad trade conversations, but the notion of trading catcher Willson Contreras and a higher-priced, underperforming player in an Arenado deal, then flipping Bryant to revitalize a mediocre farm system, squares in the short and long term.

So for this to work (and let’s assume Contreras is the big piece going the other way in this deal) – you almost have to assume Jason Heyward is the ‘higher-priced, underperforming’ player noted by Passan. The five-time Gold Glover has four years and $86 million left on his deal and, by and large, he hasn’t lived up to the hype.

The Cubs have the pieces to fill the void in right field. In theory, at least, you could make this deal, flip Bryant for prospects (thus, saving another nearly $20 million in payroll) – then go out and bring back Nicholas Castellanos. Here. For. That.

This is one of those scenarios that could work – not just this season, either, but making the Cubs a better team for the foreseeable future and hopefully helping extend the team’s competitive window that stands to slam shut in the next couple years.

Chicago Cubs: Is the front office ready to make a high-stakes gamble?

It’s not as cut-and-dry as it might seem, though. First, trading Willson Contreras, one of the best offensive catchers in the game, is a tough pill to swallow. When he’s been healthy, he’s been elite – and if the late-season defensive adjustments we saw him make play out over the course of the season, this is not just one of the best catchers, but one of the best players in baseball.

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But that’s not the biggest gamble in my mind. It’s that Arenado carries an opt out after 2021. So say the Cubs trade Contreras and Heyward for Arenado – and he does exactly what you’d hope: he rakes for the next two years, emerging as a powerhouse at the Friendly Confines.

He’d head into the 2021 offseason heading into his age-31 season. If he put up the kind of numbers he’s produced to this point in his career, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t opt out. Because unlike some third basemen, he’s not only a monster at the dish, but he’s one of the best defenders in the game – regardless of position.

In other words, the Cubs could trade Bryant for prospects to help re-load the system (as Passan notes), while losing Contreras – only to see Arenado walk in two years, coincidentally the same time they stand to lose Bryant as things currently stand.

I’m not saying it’s not worth the risk. But it’s a high-risk, high-reward type of move. One thing’s for sure, though. It’s bold – and might just prove to be the shake-up Epstein has been searching for from his office at Gallagher Way.