Chicago Cubs: What if the team really does nothing this winter

Chicago Cubs: A look at the offense

Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez have all appeared, in varying degrees, in trade rumors this offseason. Over the next couple of years, the team will have decisions to make on which ones will be a part of the future and which they’ll need to let go via trade or free agency.

The Cubs have a good core of players to start with on offense. Trading any of them at this point would be tough for fans to swallow, but so would going through this entire offseason without signing any of them to a contract extension. Going through this entire offseason without accomplishing anything on this front – one way or another – would show a lack of leadership from the front office.

Anyway, looking at this from a purely on-the-field standpoint for 2020, the team has a good offense but still has a few holes, particularly at second base and center field. They do have a few options for both: Nico Hoerner, David Bote and Ian Happ are among those at second base, with Happ and Albert Almora, Jr. among those for center field. However, all of them are unproven long-term. Not bringing in a veteran for either position would be a huge roll of the dice from the front office.

And then there’s Jason Heyward, who has been pretty average over the past four seasons with the bat. He did show some signs of life at times last season, but he was up-and-down, and there’s little reason to believe he’ll be much more than average again next year. All this adds up to an offense that has lots of potential but has too many question marks heading into 2020.

Chicago Cubs: A look at the pitching

Right now, the Chicago Cubs are looking at Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, and Jose Quintana in the first four spots in their rotation. There has been a little speculation that the team may try to trade Quintana after picking up his 2020 option, but that seems unlikely at this point. Hendricks seems like a good bet to have another solid season, while we’re all hoping that Darvish turned a corner in the second half last year and can pitch like that over an entire season.

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Lester and Quintana come with plenty of question marks. Lester has been the leader of this staff for several years, but he showed many signs of decline last year, and it’s unclear what they’ll get from him in the sixth and final year of his contract. Quintana has shown signs of pitching well over the past couple of seasons, but he was awful at the end of 2019. Will he be able to bounce back and give them a decent showing in 2020?

As for the fifth spot, Tyler Chatwood, Alec Mills, Adbert Alzolay, and Colin Rea are among those who would get a look. Chatwood appears to be the most likely right now, although we’d hate to lose him from the bullpen, where he was effective in 2019. At least it’s good that they have some competition.

While the rotation appears to at least be serviceable, the bullpen features a lot more questions. Four key figures from 2019 – Brandon Kintzler, Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop, and David Phelps – are all gone and appear unlikely to return.

Replacing all those innings will be a challenge, to say the least. With no additions, the team would be relying heavily on 2019 surprises Rowan Wick and Kyle Ryan to get to closer Craig Kimbrel, who has plenty of question marks of his own. After that, well, there’s not much to get excited about.

Chicago Cubs: What does it all mean?

If the front office really does nothing the rest of this offseason, first-year manager David Ross will have a tall task ahead of him. Looking at the rest of the division, the Cincinnati Reds are making moves and figure to be much tougher in 2020. The Milwaukee Brewers have lost some players but are at least making an effort to replace them. And the St. Louis Cardinals, despite a lack of moves so far, always figure out a way to at least be in contention.

That’s why, as currently constructed, the Cubs sadly might be looking at fourth place in the National League Central. The offense has some stars but lacks depth, the starting rotation is okay but not inspiring, and the bullpen is way too thin for the team to be considered a serious contender at this point.

Of course, if enough things go right, the Cubs could return to the playoffs in 2020. IF Kyle Schwarber builds on a solid end to 2019. IF Kris Bryant stays healthy. IF Jason Heyward can somehow put together a career year. IF Jon Lester and Jose Quintana can recover from disappointing 2019 seasons and find a career second wind. IF Craig Kimbrel returns to form. IF they can find two or three surprise contributors for the bullpen.

That’s a lot of if’s, far too many to bank on. Bottom line: The status quo just isn’t going to cut it. The Cubs are not contenders as currently constructed. Either the team needs to start making some additions, or they need to decide that 2020 won’t be their year and make a couple of deals to improve the farm system and/or add some young players. Whatever they do, they need to do it and do it fast. Because fans aren’t going to be happy with a repeat of 2019 – or worse.