Chicago Cubs: Trade rumors obscuring need for impact arm

Chicago Cubs: Regression, regression, regression

In 2016, the Cubs starting rotation was practically at the top of the mountain. Kyle Hendricks (who also won the ERA title) and Jon Lester were Cy Young finalists, and the Cubs totaled 16.2 fWAR, the second-best mark in the majors that year.

Subsequent seasons were not as productive, however. The rotation posted a 12.4 fWAR in 2017 and 10.2 fWAR in 2018.

Even though Cubs starters bounced back to accumulate 15.7 fWAR in 2019, they posted an astronomical 4.82 ERA over the course of the last two months. Those numbers also include the sensational performance of Yu Darvish, who was one of the best pitchers in the game after the All-Star Break.

The regression in the rotation is fairly evident. Lester’s peripherals suggested he got lucky in 2018, and he responded by allowing 205 hits in 2019 – most in the NL – while the homer rate rose to 1.4 HR/9.

Jose Quintana had his moments of dominance, but more or less has had the same issues since coming to Chicago: struggles in locating the fastball and a change-up that has been totally ineffective against opposing hitters.

Quintana also remains one of the most inconsistent starters in Chicago’s rotation, posting a 2.02 ERA in August before ballooning to an 11.09 ERA in September. Not to be outdone, Cole Hamels never recovered after suffering an oblique injury just before the All-Star Break.

Then of course, there is the average age of Chicago’s four starters (which, as of now, consists of Darvish, Hendricks, Lester and Quintana) is 32.5 years old.

Unless your name is Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander, it is hard to pitch at a high level as you age. This is especially true for Lester and Quintana, who are so reliant on their fastball command in spite of low velocity.

Chicago Cubs: Is there a starter on the radar this winter?

By no means is it outrageous to be thinking about which players could be moved, or how those transactions could impact a lineup that was the second-worst in the National League in terms of contact rate. The Cubs were an incredibly frustrating offensive unit in both 2018 and 2019, and most fans tend to focus on offensive output.

But all of the talk about the young core has detracted from the looming need for a premium arm in the starting rotation. After all, the Washington Nationals just proved that you can be quite successful with a deep group of starters.

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This is not to suggest that the Cubs should pursue Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg. Tom Ricketts has all but assured that payroll will not increase, and even a hypothetical trade involving Quintana or others is unlikely to create enough flexibility to sign either of those two aces.

However, someone like Zack Wheeler would be an instant upgrade for Chicago’s staff. Or, if the Cubs cannot free up space for Wheeler, what about a two-year deal for Hyun-Jin Ryu?

Some fear that Madison Bumgarner is over the hill, but his peripherals were still excellent last season. Plus, he is only 30 years old, and he would give the Cubs another fiery leader in the clubhouse. Is the three-time champion another possibility?

The Cubs cannot rely on “internal improvements” in the rotation this year. They are already losing Hamels to free agency. The writing may be on the wall for Quintana  and Lester is in the twilight of his career.

Not to mention, they simply do not have the prospect panoply capable of making immediate contributions in 2020.

If Theo hopes to build a winner next season while establishing a little bit of continuity, then he needs to go out and add an impact starter, irrespective of all the outside noise.