Chicago Cubs: Six potential starting pitching trade targets

Will the Chicago Cubs be looking to add to their starting rotation via trade this offseason? If so, here are six names that could be available.

The Chicago Cubs have several areas to address this offseason if they want to contend in 2020. One of those areas is the starting rotation.

As of right now, the rotation consists of Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, and Jose Quintana. While Hendricks is coming off a nice season and Darvish had a great second-half comeback this past year, Lester and Quintana were both disappointing. Quintana was not consistent, while Lester looked like a shell of his former self.

It’s hard to say what the Cubs will get from their current starting pitchers in 2020. They do have a spot in the rotation open, as they declined to make a qualifying offer to Cole Hamels. Therefore, if the team decides not to try to fill that spot internally with someone such as Tyler Chatwood or Alec Mills, they’ll have to go out and find another arm.

In any case, an upgrade is going to be necessary. Free agency offers quite a few options this offseason, but any established free agent starting pitcher is going to cost a lot of money. I previously speculated on Kyle Gibson, whom MLBTradeRumors.com projects is going to the Cubs. The Cubs will certainly be linked to many other free agent names in rumors as well.

However, the team may decide to look at some trade options to fill that fifth starter spot. Here, we look at six names who could be available this offseason via trade. Some trades have a decent chance of happening, while others are a long shot.

Chicago Cubs: Noah Syndergaard

I wrote previously in a column about potential blockbuster trades about the possibility of a Chicago Cubs trade with the New York Mets involving Noah Syndergaard and Kris Bryant. Whether the Cubs make Bryant available this offseason or not, Syndergaard will be one of the biggest, if not the biggest, starting pitching name to come up via trade rumors.

If the Mets do decide to move Syndergaard this offseason, they may have waited a little too long, as his trade value likely decreased after the 27-year-old right-hander put together a subpar season in 2019. Between 2015 and 2018, his career ERA was a tremendous 2.93 in 87 games, but in 2019 that number went up to 4.28. Though he proved healthy, setting career highs in starts (32) and innings pitched (197 2/3), he also led the league in earned runs allowed with 94. Hits per nine innings and WHIP were also career worsts.

The good news on Syndergaard is that his velocity was about in line with his career numbers in 2019, as was his walk rate. He got bit by the home run ball, allowing 24 of them as opposed to just nine in 2018.

If indeed the Cubs want to move Bryant, it would make sense to include him in a potential deal since the Mets will need a third baseman next year with Todd Frazier becoming a free agent. If Bryant is not involved, the Mets will almost certainly want major league ready talent in return, as it looks like they would rather retool than rebuild. Syndergaard is under team control for three more years.

Chicago Cubs: Mike Minor

Do the Texas Rangers think they will contend in 2020? The answer to that question will go a long way towards determining whether they try to move Mike Minor. It’s hard to envision it happening, with the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics in the same division, along with the Los Angeles Angels, who figure to be active this offseason. Yet they’ve also been rumored to be in on big names such as Josh Donaldson, so who knows.

In either case, the Rangers may decide to try to sell high on Minor. The soon-to-be 32-year-old southpaw had a rough outing to start the year against the Cubs but then was excellent for most of 2019 before three straight bad outings to close the year caused his ERA to go up to 3.59. The Rangers probably could have gotten more for Minor had they dealt him at the trade deadline.

Minor’s great year was a bit of a surprise, though it didn’t come out of nowhere, as he had a decent run with the Atlanta Braves before missing all of 2015 and 2016 due to injury. In 2018, he posted a 4.18 ERA. Minor is signed for an affordable $9.83 million for 2020.

Given that the Rangers are looking for a third baseman, it would make sense that Bryant could be part of a deal, though it would take more than Minor for the Cubs to make that deal. Or, if the Rangers want prospects, it likely wouldn’t take any of the Cubs’ top ones to get a deal done.

Chicago Cubs: Robbie Ray

The Arizona Diamondbacks dealt Zack Greinke at the trade deadline this past year, and since it looks like they want to rebuild, they’ll probably be taking offers on soon-to-be 29-year-old southpaw Robbie Ray. Ray is arbitration-eligible this offseason and is under team control for another two years.

Ray could be a solid middle-of-the-rotation addition for the Cubs. His best season came in 2017, when he was an All-Star and finished seventh in National League Cy Young Award voting by posting a 2.89 ERA while leading the league strikeouts per nine innings. He followed that up with a decent 2018, posting a 3.93 ERA. In 2019, he made a career-high 33 starts, but his ERA went up again to 4.34.

A word of caution with Ray would be that his walk rates have been higher then you’d like to see, especially over the past two years. He’s walked at least 70 batters in each of the past four seasons, including 84 in 2019. He also gave up a career-high 30 home runs this past season. Still, strikeout rates have always been high; in 2019, he whiffed 12.1 batters per nine innings.

Like with some of the other names on this list, the Diamondbacks may wait to trade Ray and see if he can put together a solid first half of 2020 before moving him at the deadline. Yet if they want to move him this offseason, he could be a good buy-low candidate for the Cubs. They likely wouldn’t have to give up any big-name prospects for him and he’d be relatively affordable.

Chicago Cubs: Matthew Boyd

The Chicago Cubs already made one great trade with the Detroit Tigers this year, as they brought in Nicholas Castellanos at the trade deadline. Could another trade with the Tigers be in the works this offseason, this time for southpaw Matthew Boyd?

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The Tigers are in the middle of a long, painful rebuild, and even though Boyd is under team control through 2023, you’d have to believe that the soon-to-be 29-year-old would be available, along with anyone else at the major league level who could bring back any level of young talent in return. Boyd would be an affordable and controllable option for the rotation, though he does come with some question marks.

Boyd was on his way to a career year in 2019; at the end of July, his ERA was 3.94 while he was proving to be a reliable arm for the rotation. However, in nine starts after July, his ERA was 6.11.

The Tigers are probably kicking themselves for not dealing him at the deadline, as now there’s a question as to how much they could get for him in a trade.

There were some good signs from Boyd overall in 2019. For example, his strikeouts per nine innings rate was by far a career high at 11.6. He also has improved his walks per nine innings rate each of the past three years. However, the long ball has been a problem, as he led the league in home runs allowed in 2019 with 39. If the Cubs are desperate to trade for a #4-type starter, perhaps they’ll give the Tigers a call on Boyd.

Chicago Cubs: Jon Gray

It’s always hard to evaluate pitchers who play half of their games at Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies selected Jon Gray with the third overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, right after the Cubs took Kris Bryant. Gray has pitched his entire career for the Rockies, and all things considered, he’s done pretty well for them. With the Rockies coming off a disappointing season, if they decide they want to rebuild, look for them to make Gray available.

The 28-year-old right-hander is coming off a nice season. Overall, his ERA was 3.84 a year after leading the league in earned runs allowed. Of course, we’ll want to take a look at his home/road splits, but they are actually surprising: Gray’s ERA at home was better (3.46) than it was on the road (4.22). He did not pitch after August 16 due to injury.

Gray is arbitration-eligible and is under team control through 2022. Because of that, he’d be an attractive trade piece for any contender looking for starting pitching help. It probably would take a top-tier prospect to get Gray, and given the Cubs’ thin farm system, that might not be something they are willing to do.

Another possibility is that the Rockies may be also looking to unload Charlie Blackmon‘s big contract. If that’s the case, perhaps they would try to bundle Gray and Blackmon together and be willing to take less in return. Though the Cubs also need outfield help, it’s hard to see them doing that.