Chicago Cubs: Breaking down four potential outfield trade targets
With the weak free agent class, trading for outfield help could be a solution for the Chicago Cubs. Here we look at four potential targets for the club.
The Chicago Cubs will go into this offseason looking for help in their outfield, particularly in center field. That being said, there just isn’t much available on the free agent market.
According to MLB.com, Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are the only primary center field free agents with a positive WAR in 2019. I wrote previously that Brett Gardner could be a center field option, though such a move seems unlikely. With Albert Almora, Jr. coming off a rough year, if the Cubs aren’t comfortable with him as their center fielder, they may have to look at some trade possibilities.
Of course, the big question that many Cubs fans are asking this offseason is whether the team will bring back Nicholas Castellanos. The former Detroit Tiger was excellent in his short time with the team, leaving many fans hoping that the two sides can get a deal done. Such a move would likely put Jason Heyward in center field for 2020, thus addressing the need to fill that position.
Still, Castellanos is not going to come cheap, and many teams figure to be in on him, so it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll be back in Chicago next year. If he’s not, then the Cubs will have to come up with a different plan. The downside of a trade is that it would likely cost the team prospects, especially since the other four teams I will be discussing here will likely be in rebuilding mode in 2020.
All that being said, where could the Cubs look via trade to find outfield help? Let’s look at four possibilities.
Chicago Cubs: Starling Marte
The first question we needed to ask about Starling Marte has already been answered, as the Pittsburgh Pirates will pick up his $11.5 million option for 2020. So, he won’t be a free agent, but that doesn’t mean the Pirates won’t try to move him. The next question we need to ask is whether the Pirates will fully commit to a rebuild this offseason, as they’ve been hesitant to the past couple of years. If indeed they do, look for them to move Marte.
Unlike the other candidates that we’ll see on this list, Marte has been a full-time center fielder over the past couple of seasons, so he could slot into center and put Heyward back to his natural position of right field. Marte won a Gold Glove Award in 2015 and 2016, while his range factor per nine innings has been consistently above league average.
On offense, Marte is a career .287 hitter who set career highs in home runs (23) and RBIs (82) in 2019. He also would bring speed on a team that is lacking it; Marte has stolen over 20 bases every year since 2013. As he’s entering his age 31 season, Marte’s speed and defense may diminish a little, but he’s developed more power over the past couple of seasons.
Would the Pirates trade Marte to a division rival? And would the Cubs have enough young talent to pull off a trade for Marte? That remains to be seen, though on the surface it appears that Marte could be a fit for the Cubs. In addition to his $11.5 million salary in 2020, Marte comes with a $12.5 million team option for 2021. If he plays like he did in 2019, that would be a good deal.
Chicago Cubs: Charlie Blackmon
Just like with the Pirates and Starling Marte, whether the Colorado Rockies decide to move Charlie Blackmon will depend on what direction they want to go this offseason. They’re coming off a disappointing 2019 in which they went 71-91, but that came right after back-to-back playoff appearances.
Blackmon would likely not cost as much in talent in a trade as would Marte for two reasons: One, Blackmon is older (he’ll be turning 34 in July 2020), and two, he’s still owed a lot of money. Blackmon is signed through 2022 and is still owed $64 million (plus a club option for 2023). The Rockies may decide they want to dump Blackmon just to get rid of some salary. It’s doubtful the Cubs would want to take this contract on unless the Rockies picked up some of it.
Blackmon could bring a lot to the Cubs’ lineup: He’s been an All-Star three straight years, has hit at least 29 home runs four straight years, and has had an OPS of over .900 three of the last four years. Though he doesn’t have the speed he once did, he could be a potent leadoff hitter. Yet as is always the case with a Rockies hitter, home/road splits are a concern. In 2019, Blackmon’s OPS at home was 1.174, while it was just .731 on the road.
Blackmon played right field in 2019, but he’s been a center fielder in the past, so the Cubs would have to make a decision regarding who between him and Heyward would play center and who would play right. That being said, between the concern over how Blackmon would play away from Coors Field and the salary left on his contract, this isn’t a trade the Cubs are likely to make.
Chicago Cubs: Whit Merrifield
The Kansas City Royals are going nowhere anytime soon, and Whit Merrifield is their biggest trade chip, so it’s likely that he’ll be moved this offseason. Merrifield is coming off a season in which he batted over .300, led the league in hits, and hit over 40 doubles all for a second straight year. In addition, Merrifield led the league in stolen bases in 2017 and 2018 while swiping 20 bags and hitting a league-leading 10 triples in 2019. He can hit the ball out of the ballpark as well, with 16 bombs in 2019.
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Merrifield is also a versatile player on defense, as he played a significant number of games at second base, right field, and center field in 2019 and played them well. Second base and center field are two of the Cubs’ greatest needs, and he’s signed for at least three more years for cheap. Based on all this, it sounds like Merrifield might be the perfect solution for the Cubs’ leadoff spot woes.
All this being said, Merrifield was a late bloomer, and even though he’s only been in the league for four years, 2020 will be his age 31 season. In addition, given how many boxes he checks for the Cubs, it’s likely the Cubs would have to give up some premium minor league talent for him. Do they even have enough talent in their already thin farm system to pull this off?
You’d figure that any conversation with the Royals would have to start with Nico Hoerner, plus it would likely cost two additional prospects. That’s just not something the Cubs can afford right now, so while Merrifield would be a great addition to the Cubs, I don’t like their chances of acquiring him.
Chicago Cubs: Mitch Haniger
We never seem to know what the Seattle Mariners are doing, but if there’s one thing we do know it’s that they don’t like to sit still. There have been signs over the past year that they’re willing to rebuild, and if that continues this offseason, they might be looking to part with the soon-to-be 29-year-old Mitch Haniger.
Haniger was on his way to becoming a star in 2018. He finished 11th in American League MVP voting, batting .285 with 26 home runs, 38 doubles, and 93 RBIs. However, he got off to a slow start in 2019, hitting just .220 before suffering a season-ending injury in June. He did hit 15 home runs, so Haniger could be a good source of power. However, with 2018 being his only full season, there’s not enough of a track record to know how good he’ll be going forward.
As far as defense, Haniger has seen significant time in both right and center field over the past couple of seasons, so as with Blackmon, the Cubs would have to decide where to put him and Heyward. The guess here is that Haniger would play right while Heyward would play center, as Heyward is the better defender. Haniger is not terrible on defense, however, posting a positive defensive WAR every year of his career.
Haniger is under control team control through 2023 and would come cheap, plus the Mariners would be selling low on him so he wouldn’t cost as much in talent. Given the constraints of the Cubs’ budget this offseason, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they at least give the Mariners a call.