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Chicago Cubs should target Zack Wheeler in free agency
With the Chicago Cubs looking to make changes to the rotation, there are intriguing names in free agency that could grab Theo Epstein’s attention.
One of the many questions being asked this offseason is how the Chicago Cubs will upgrade their pitching rotation for 2020. We know that Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish and Jon Lester will be sticking around baring some crazy move or unfortunate career setback. Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzalez reports that the Cubs elected to pick up Jose Quintana’s option for 2020, which means the club has have four slots taken in the Opening Week rotation.
One thing seems certain is that they will be looking to replace Cole Hamels‘ spot since he probably will not be back. Plus despite the Cubs picking up Quintana’s option, there could be an attempt to trade him offseason. Regardless there will be changes to the rotation for 2020 however big or small they might be.
One intriguing option for Theo Epstein to explore is veteran righty Zack Wheeler, who will be a free agent if he indeed declines a one-year, $18 million qualifying offer. Wheeler, 29, has spent his entire MLB career with the Mets since making his debut in 2013. While one might bring up injury issues in his career as a point of concern, the recent body of work shows that he is still a very valuable arm and one that will generate interest.
Chicago Cubs: Surrounded by aces, Wheeler made a name for himself
Wheeler made his debut in 2013 with the New York Mets and immediately made an impact pitching to a 3.42 ERA in 17 starts. He posted a 3.55 FIP and 187 strikeouts in 32 starts in 2014 and was looking very promising. Then in March of 2015 he had Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL and missed the entire season. In 2016 he tried to comeback but suffered a mild flexor strain during his rehab and missed all of that season as well.
He finally returned in 2017 and the past several season still showed that he can pitch. In 2019 he pitched a career-high 195 1/3 innings (31 starts) and pitched to a 3.96 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.3 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and posted a 4.7 fWAR. The difference in FIP and ERA shows he was better than the peripherals indicate. In 2018, he posted a career-low 3.25 FIP and 3.31 ERA in 182 1/3 innings, so this past year does not exactly scream “fluke”.
Wheeler might not be Nolan Ryan, but he can miss bats. He regularly can sit in the upper-90s on the fastball while mixing in a hard slider, curve and change-up which he used more of last year. He has a number of times hit 99 MPH on the gun on the fastball and the pitch velocity on that fastball in 2019 was the highest of his career.
His stuff has looked as good as it has since going under the knife and at 29 still has gas in the tank.
Chicago Cubs: Will the money be available for such a move?
I think there is enough of an argument to be made about Wheeler is a very valuable player for any team. The question now is what price would Wheeler come at? Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts on 670 the Score recently expressed his financial and organizational concerns about the luxury tax, which points to another offseason with a limited budget.
While not set in stone, the chances are he will not accept a one-year qualifying offer seem less than likely, but we will know for sure within a few days. Had Wheeler been in this position in 2017 with just a small sample size of pitching after Tommy John, his value would considerably smaller with the recent injury and unknowns of what his post-surgery performance would be. This is not a “taking a waiver on him” type of move by any means. He is in a position in which he has proved his worth as a pitcher even after missing two seasons.
In terms of just fitting on the team, he would fit very nicely in the middle of the rotation. Giving the group an arm that can throw harder and miss bats would be ideal. It puts less pressure on the defense and cuts down chances for BABIP misfortune. Outside Darvish, the current rotation relies on a lot of contact outs and grinding away which while can be effective, got them into some trouble last year.
Three potential blockbuster deals for Cubs. dark. Next
There would be a decently-sized commitment to obtain a Zack Wheeler. With so many different things that can happen this offseason, getting a guy like him could become either easier or harder depending on financial moves.