Chicago Cubs: Why re-signing Nicholas Castellanos is not a priority

The Chicago Cubs had the second-highest payroll in all of baseball in 2019. But this winter, they finally have some payroll flexibility.

With several players hitting the market as unrestricted free agents and the Chicago Cubs holding team options on a host of other players, Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office have the opportunity to pursue a variety of different avenues during the offseason.

There has been a lot of noise suggesting that the Cubs “need” to bring back Nicholas Castellanos after one of the most impressive two-month stretches in team history.

While Castellanos would undoubtedly give the Cubs added offensive firepower heading into 2020, it is dangerous to suggest that re-signing him should be the top priority this winter.

Instead of doing “whatever it takes” to bring a player back into the fold, the Cubs should emulate the strategy used by the Washington Nationals last year: add multiple pieces in fringe areas.

Chicago Cubs: Nationals use addition by subtraction

The Nationals made just one offer to Bryce Harper during the course of the offseason last year. They were not intent on engaging in a bidding war for a player that they felt they could replace in the aggregate.

Washington general manager Mike Rizzo got to work. He signed the best free-agent pitcher on the market–left-hander Patrick Corbin–while also signing veteran starter Anibal Sanchez to round out the starting rotation.

Rizzo also bolstered the club at their two weakest positions, signing catcher Kurt Suzuki and offering a one-year deal to former Twins second baseman Brian Dozier.

In 2018, the Nationals ranked 25th in catching WAR and dead-last in second base WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. This past year, Suzuki and Dozier helped the Nats climb to 15th at each of those positions, respectively. Meanwhile, Washington’s starters handily led all teams in WAR.

Most importantly, many of these changes helped the Nationals win 93 games despite having one of the worst bullpen units in the majors.

Of course, the Nationals were willing to let Harper walk-in part because of the talent and depth that they had on the roster. Adam Eaton was returning from injury, Juan Soto already looked like an All-Star at 19 years old, and Victor Robles would get his shot as a full-time starter.

However, Rizzo’s recognition that his team had more pressing needs was a crucial component of his offseason strategy, which in turn has had a drastic impact on Washington’s success this season.

Chicago Cubs: How might this apply to the 2020 Cubs?

Again, the Cubs have some money coming off the books. Although Epstein and co. will have to account for arbitration salaries–unless they elect to trade young pieces or sign them to extensions–Chicago will still have some cash to throw around. The question is, how will they choose to spend?

Castellanos–who is also a client of Scott Boras–is likely to command a hefty contract, especially given that he will only be 28 next March.

Make no mistake, Castellanos could be an immensely valuable member of the 2020 Cubs if he is re-signed. But would the front office risk potentially pricing the team out of other markets to retain Castellanos, especially given that the Cubs have more glaring holes?

The Cubs have clear needs for a leadoff hitter and a more dependable second baseman. They will also need to replace some bullpen arms, though guys like Kyle Ryan, Brad Wieck and Rowan Wick proved that they could be staples of the 2020 pen.

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While Chicago’s rotation was decent on the whole in 2019, they also face a potential reckoning. Cole Hamels is a free agent, and the Cubs have an option on Jose Quintana. Not to mention, Jon Lester will be 36 in January, and he is coming off arguably the worst season of his career.

Like the Nationals, the Cubs might be able to make more impactful moves in a multitude of areas in addition to creating one big splash.

Veteran second basemen like Dozier, Howie Kendrick and Eric Sogard will be on the market. Perhaps Ben Zobrist would be willing to return on a cheaper, one-year deal.

In the outfield, Eaton, Nick Markakis and Starling Marte (each of whom has pending team options) could be possibilities. Avisail Garcia is another interesting option.

Adding fringe pieces might allow the Cubs to pursue an ace like Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg (who can opt-out of the remaining four years on his current deal), as well as other promising arms such as Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler.

Maybe the front office feels that Castellanos is an indispensable member of next year’s team. However, there is a real argument to be made that the Cubs should look for low-cost options while trying to hit a home run on a marquee starter.

The strategy works. Look no further than the 2019 Washington Nationals.