Chicago Cubs: Will Addison Russell, Albert Almora be back in 2020?

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Addison Russell and Albert Almora, Jr. are both arbitration-eligible. Will the Chicago Cubs offer contracts to them this offseason?

The Chicago Cubs have six arbitration-eligible players on their roster this offseason: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras and Albert Almora, Jr. Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, and Contreras are locks to receive contract offers, leaving Russell and Almora as candidates to be non-tendered. Will either of them be back next year?

It’s hard to say for sure. This front office has been unyielding in their loyalty to ‘their’ guys – and both Almora and Russell fit the bill. Chicago selected Almora in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft and developed Russell after acquiring him in the 2014 trade that sent Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija to Oakland.

Still, neither guy produced anywhere close to where the Cubs anticipated in 2019. Russell, who has been under near-constant criticism given his off-the-field matters, fell flat on the diamond, as well – with an 81 wRC+ offensively and a -3 UZR on defense.

Meanwhile, Almora went from a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder to a defensive liability as his offensive production cratered. In short, neither did much to help their stock – and with change afoot at Wrigley Field, it’s worth wondering what the future looks like for both of these guys.

Chicago Cubs: The case of Addison Russell

It’s impossible to talk about Russell’s future with the team without talking about his off-the-field issues. It’s hard not to draw the conclusion that those issues have impacted his performance on the field and for that reason alone Russell is the ideal change of scenery candidate.

Yet if we look at Russell’s status objectively, it’s hard to make the case that the Cubs should bring Russell back in 2020. Russell made $3.4 million in 2019 and though he likely wouldn’t be up for much of a raise, it’s looking like he’s never going to return to his 2016 form that saw him finish 19th in NL MVP voting.

The former first-round pick played in only 82 games this year, yet his performance was uninspiring. After hitting four home runs in May right after his return from suspension, he didn’t hit more than two in any other month, while his OPS after May only got above .650 once (.723 in July). He also had some lapses in the field, and his defense took a step backward: After posting at least a 1.9 defensive WAR every year of his career, in 2019 that number was down to just 0.3.

Add to all this the fact that the Cubs are already set at shortstop with Baez and have plenty of internal candidates for the second base job next year that include Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner and Robel Garcia.

Even if the Cubs decide they don’t like any of those options, it’s becoming clear that Russell is not going to be the answer and that they would be better off looking externally to fill that hole. The guess here is that the Cubs will non-tender Russell.

Chicago Cubs: The case of Albert Almora, Jr.

Almora will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and he only made $615,500 in 2019. He won’t be as expensive as Russell would be, and therefore it’s more likely that the Cubs will offer Almora a contract for 2020.

Still, there may be some doubt because, by most standards, Almora took a step backward in 2019. He became more of a power hitter, slugging a career-high 12 home runs, but almost everything else was down, including runs, doubles, RBI and walks. His batting average plummeted from .286 in 2018 to .236, as did his OBP, from .323 to .271, while his slugging percentage only rose from .378 to .381. On defense, Almora’s WAR fell from 1.1 to -0.4.

Is it too early to give up on Almora? Perhaps, although there have always been concerns about his ability to hit for power or to be patient at the plate. He could still have value as a fourth outfielder; even if the Cubs bring back Nicholas Castellanos (for right field) and put Jason Heyward in center, they’ll need someone to back up those two plus Kyle Schwarber in left.

There aren’t any obvious internal candidates to replace Almora, while it’s hard to imagine them finding someone externally who will be cheaper. There’s even been talk of trading Almora, though the Cubs likely wouldn’t get much of value in return.

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The guess here is that, given Almora’s projected low salary and the current lack of outfield depth, the Cubs will offer Almora a contract for 2020. However, it will be a critical year for him, as he’ll have to hit for average and play good defense to have much value. If he doesn’t show improvement, there’s a good chance he won’t be back in 2021.

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Addison Russell and Albert Almora, Jr. are both arbitration-eligible. Will the Chicago Cubs offer contracts to them this offseason?

Chicago Cubs: The case of Addison Russell

Chicago Cubs: The case of Albert Almora, Jr.

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