Chicago Cubs: The positives and negatives of 2019

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Another season of Chicago Cubs baseball is officially in the books. While the 2019 campaign did not shape up to be what fans wished, there was still to be happy about despite the underwhelming finish. It’s time to dive into both the positives and negatives of this past year.

As has been the draw for the previous four seasons, there was much to be excited about heading into this season. Unfortunately, it ended with a crash and burn as the Chicago Cubs finished just six games over .500, going 84-78 and missing the postseason for the first time since 2014.

PECOTA initially projected the Cubs at 79 wins. When the projections were released, the majority of Wrigleyville, including myself, believed this to be laughable. However, they were not far off. Maybe it is time to start taking the projections somewhat seriously heading into the new year.

All that aside, because there were plenty of negatives, there were still positive takeaways from the season. Baseball is one of the most unpredictable games there is. We never know what will happen. However, we can observe the hindsight and look forward to a fresh start in 2020.

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Chicago Cubs: The biggest letdown on the season

Starting with the negatives, there is no more significant negative than the Cubs’ bullpen production or lack thereof. The Cubs had a top ten bullpen in 2018, finishing with a collective ERA of 3.35 and a 4.9 WAR. They allowed just 0.78 HR/9 as well.

This season, Chicago saw a significant regression with the pen. They dropped to 20th overall out of 30 major league teams, seeing an increased ERA of 3.98, a 4.54 FIP, and a 4.50 xFIP. Both of those numbers were up from the previous year.

An immense impact of their bullpen was easily Pedro Strop and his drop in numbers. Strop struggled to stay healthy throughout the year, seeing action in just 50 games. It was his lowest number since 2011 when he first broke into the league.

Strop’s ERA rose to a disastrous 4.97 ERA, a jump from 2.26 in 2018. It was the highest ERA of his career. Regarding FIP and xFIP, Strop finished with a 4.53 and 4.19, respectively. The positive of Strop’s 2019 season was his increased strikeout rate. Disappointingly, his walk rate also improved quite a bit. Strop is set to be a free agent this offseason, and at 34 years of age, it is anyone’s guess if the Cubs will bring him back.

The other big disappointment late in the season was the lack of production from Craig Kimbrel. When Chicago signed Kimbrel to a 3-year/$45 million deal, fans figured this was the big break they were expecting. That would not, however, be the case as Kimbrel pitched to a 6.53 ERA over 23 games and failed to stay completely healthy. Kimbrel did record a 31.3 percent strikeout rate. The outrageous 12.5 percent walk rate, however, did him no favors. Fans hope he can bounce back in 2020.

Lastly was Carl Edwards Jr., who finished with a 5.87 ERA before his trade to the San Diego Padres. Edwards was another guy who found great success over multiple seasons. However, he could not stay healthy and lost his groove, which ultimately hurt the Cubs.

(Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images) /

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber had a monster year

Now to a positive. Of everything that seemingly went wrong for the Cubs this year, one guy, in particular, turned things around. Kyle Schwarber was a bright spot, finishing with a career-high 38 home runs, along with a .250/.339/.531 slash line, good enough for a 2.6 WAR.

In the past three seasons, Schwarber has dramatically improved in almost every aspect. In 2017, Schwarber finished with a .333 wOBA and 103 wRC+; in 2018, those numbers jumped to .343 and 115, respectively. This year, Schwarber was even better, posting a .357 wOBA and 120 wRC+.

Concerning his strikeout rate and hard contact rate, Schwarber experienced a decrease in strikeouts as well as raised his overall hard contact rate. That number, in particular, has grown 5.6 percent since 2017.

Schwarber saw a dip in his overall fielding, yet with all of the positives, we saw offensively from the 26-year-old, it is easier to look the other way. Schwarber is not a free agent until 2022, yet Chicago may dangle him on the market after his 2019 campaign. Nevertheless, it was a favorable spot for Chicago this year.

Chicago Cubs: The road is not your friend

In Cormac McCarthy’s ‘The Road,’ there is a quote that stands out quite a lot: “You forget what you want to remember, and you remember what you want to forget.” For the Cubs’ journey on the road, that rang true throughout all of 2019.

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At home this year, the Cubs were one of the best teams in baseball. Fans every week were ecstatic for the games at Wrigley and agonized for a return once away from the ivy-covered domain. Of all the teams in baseball, only six teams were worse on the road than Chicago.

The team finished 33-48 away from Wrigley while posting a 51-30 record at home. One of the biggest frustrations for Chicago on the road was the lack of wins in comparison to their run production. It is not like they didn’t score runs, averaging 4.84 runs per game away. The downfall was the pitching who allowed 4.95 runs per game.

Going further into it, in total, the Cubs were 19-27 in one-run games and just 4-9 in extra-inning affairs. At the beginning of September, they lost five straight one-run ballgames. In retrospect, the 2018 Cubs finished 44-37 on the road, 44-37 in 2017, and 46-34 in 2016. In 2020, the Cubs start on the road at Milwaukee and spend 13 of their first 22 games away from Wrigley. To begin next year with a good showing against a division opponent would set the tone for the new year.

Chicago Cubs: New faces in strange places

Offensively, the two brightest moments for the Cubs in 2019 was the addition of Nicholas Castellanos and the surprising breakout of first-round pick Nico Hoerner. If someone were to bet those two faces would be in Chicago this season, they would have been made fun of, however here we sit.

Rumors were aplenty leading up to this year’s trade deadline on Castellanos. The Detroit Tigers were expected to be moving him, and it was just a matter of to who. Luckily, Theo Epstein and the Cubs swooped in on the tenth hour before the deadline ran out, acquiring the big hitter for Paul Richan and Alex Lange.

The 27-year-old right-hander did not disappoint. Castellanos played 51 games for the Cubs, slashing an insane .321/.356/.646 with 16 home runs and 36 RBI. In his first month alone in his new digs, Castellanos hit 11 home runs, carried a .348 batting average, and posted a .447 wOBA and 179 wRC+. The fire starter is a free agent this offseason, and there is nobody I wish for the Cubs to pursue more than the kid from Florida.

Speaking of breaking out, Nico Hoerner demolished major league competition during his brief 20 game stint. Following a head injury to Addison Russell, the team made the call to pull Hoerner directly from Double-A Tennessee straight to the big leagues. He did not disappoint.

Next. Bote overcame a tough start to the 2019 campaign. dark

On the road in San Diego for his debut, Hoerner finished 3-for-5 with a triple and four RBI. Across a two-game stint a few days later, at home versus the Pirates, the 22-year-old went collected five knocks with two big flies and seven RBI. Hoerner finished with a .282/.305/.436 slash line, three home runs and 13 RBI. It was good enough for a 0.2 WAR.

Hoerner is the future at shortstop. He will more than likely begin the new year at Triple-A Iowa before a late April call-up but should make a significant impact in 2020 as a new staple in the lineup. Imagining a starting nine with both himself and Castellanos, along with a healthy Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant makes me salivate just thinking about it.

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