Chicago Cubs: Pursue Nicholas Castellanos or Anthony Rendon?
Nicholas Castellanos and Anthony Rendon are two of the top free agents on the market this winter. Which one would the Chicago Cubs be better off pursuing?
The pressure will be on the Chicago Cubs front office this offseason to make some big moves after their September collapse has left them out of the National League playoffs for the first time in five years. Nicholas Castellanos and Anthony Rendon will be two of the biggest offensive names on the free agent market. Which one would the Cubs be better off pursuing?
Before we dive into that, we should probably address how realistic it is that the Cubs will be able to sign either one to what figures to be a big long-term deal. Not only will they both be coming off big seasons, but they both are represented by Scott Boras, so the price figures to be steep either way.
The Cubs should at least have some money to spend. Their 2019 payroll was about $211.5 million, while a recent column on cubs.com projected the payroll for next year to sit at about $140 million, before factoring in arbitration-eligible player salaries. Hopefully, the revenue from the new Marquee Sports Network will help in terms of being able to increase the payroll.
Whether the Cubs pursue a big bat such as Castellanos or Rendon depends on how much money they decide to spend on filling other needs such as a starting pitcher and the bullpen. For the sake of argument, let’s say that the Cubs do have the money and are willing to spend it on either Castellanos or Rendon.
Which one should they choose? Let’s examine both.
Chicago Cubs: The case for Nicholas Castellanos
The Cubs’ trade for Castellanos at the trade deadline this year didn’t get much attention nationally. Castellanos wasn’t well known outside of Detroit, and those who did know about him saw him as maybe a slightly above average offensive player – in spite of the fact that he’s a doubles machine – who doesn’t project well on defense. Yet Castellanos quickly became a fan favorite by batting .321 with 16 home runs and a 1.002 OPS in just two months with the team. He also endeared himself to fans with his great work ethic and the fact that he truly seemed to enjoy playing for the Cubs.
Castellanos has proven that his game works at Wrigley Field, albeit in a small sample size. And it’s not like he came out of absolutely nowhere: In spite of playing half his games at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park in Detroit, he’s posted an OPS of over .800 for four straight years, over 20 home runs three straight years, and over 30 doubles five of the last six years, including 46 in 2018 and a stunning 58 in 2019.
Given that Rendon is considered to be the big prize among hitters in this year’s free agent class, Castellanos will probably come cheaper. And who knows, perhaps given that he’s enjoyed his time with the Cubs so much, he may be willing to take a little less than he would from other teams. He’s also the younger of these two players: Castellanos will be 28 in 2020, while Rendon will be 30, so there’s more potential for upside.
It remains to be seen how much the front office will want to turn the roster over after two straight disappointing finishes to the season, but I don’t see Castellanos being subject to that since he was only in Chicago for less than half the season and it certainly wasn’t his fault that the team collapsed towards the end.
Chicago Cubs: The case for Anthony Rendon
Rendon is considered to be the big prize in this year’s free agent market for good reason. At age 29, he’s having an MVP-caliber year, posting a 1.013 OPS and flying by previous career highs with 34 home runs and 124 RBIs. This will be his fifth year with at least 20 home runs, his fifth year with at least 38 doubles, and his third straight year with an OPS over .900.
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Despite the solid numbers Castellanos has put up, Rendon’s numbers have been even better. In addition to all the above, Rendon strikes out much less and walks much more. Rendon is also considered to be a better defensive player than Castellanos is. Of course, all this means that Rendon will likely cost more as well.
The big question for the Cubs would be what to do with Kris Bryant should they bring in Rendon, as Rendon also plays third base.
Assuming the Cubs hang on to both Kyle Schwarber in left field and Bryant, Bryant would have to move to right field full-time (also leaving Jason Heyward in center full-time).
Bryant is not an elite fielder at either position, though he’s probably better at third base, so the Cubs would have to determine whether they’d be a better overall defensive team under this scenario when/if they pursue Rendon.
I think I join many fans in wanting to see Nicholas Castellanos come back to the Cubs next season, but it depends on how much mutual interest there is and what the Cubs are willing to spend on one player this offseason.
If it doesn’t work out with Castellanos, the Cubs should at least look into Anthony Rendon as a way to give the everyday lineup a new look. In any case, it should be interesting to see how much interest the Cubs will have in either of these elite hitters.