Should the Chicago Cubs pick up the Jose Quintana team option?

Chicago Cubs: The case for picking up the option

If there’s one thing we can say for Quintana, it’s that his arm has held up remarkably well and that he’s been durable. Quintana has made exactly 32 starts every year since 2013 (he has 30 so far in 2019); indeed, you know you can give him the ball every fifth day.

Though he hasn’t shown it lately, he does have a proven track record of success. Even this year, the worst season of his career, he still has an ERA that is almost exactly in line with the league average.

Considering that the Cubs hold a $1 million buyout, the question essentially becomes whether they want to pay $10.5 million to have Quintana pitch for them next year.

For a league average (at least in terms of ERA) pitcher, that’s still not a terrible deal, especially when we consider that an upgrade to the rotation via free agency would cost the Cubs a lot of money, while they have few logical internal options to replace his spot in the rotation next year.

Chicago Cubs: The case against picking up the option

Since posting five straight seasons with an ERA under 4.00 from 2012 to 2016, including a career-best 3.20 in 2016, Quintana’s ERA has been over that mark in three consecutive seasons, including this year’s 4.55.

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He’s gotten worse in September, turning in four less-than-stellar outings, to say the least. According to FanGraphs, Quintana’s average fastball and sinker velocity have dipped for three straight years, which is not unexpected, yet it indicates that he hasn’t been able to adapt as he gets older.

Given how this season has gone, there will be demand for big changes on the roster this offseason. Regarding the rotation, aside from maybe Quintana, only Cole Hamels figures to be gone next year, so letting Quintana go might provide the best opportunity to shake up the roster.

It could provide an opportunity for someone unexpected to jump from the minors into the back end of the starting rotation, or it could provide both a roster spot and some money for the Cubs to go after a free agent such at Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner.

After examining both sides, it’s my opinion that the Cubs should decline Quintana’s option. I just feel like he’s past his prime and that the team would be better off investing that money in another starting pitcher. Yet if I had to predict, I would say that the team will pick up the option because I believe they will put value in his still relatively cheap contract. Whatever happens, it will be one of the Cubs’ most important early offseason decisions.